Hello Friend

Today's chase tips.. (prices as of 9am)

#1 – 4.45 Uttox – Premier DTroice – 1 point win – 17/2 (WH, BV) 8/1 (gen)

#2 – 4.45 Uttox – Rockys Treasure – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

More info down below inc write ups...

I hope you had a great weekend. We certainly did in RTP 'towers'.

On Sunday I tipped two horses to members, Elegant Escape at 9/1>4/1 and No Cruise Yet EW at 10/1>3/1, both winning, 2/2 and +21 points into the pot. 2022 has been good to me so far with the 'tips' especially since I refocussed on my 'specialism', mainly 3m+ handicap chases, C3+.

In this game it's important to know what you're good at and what you enjoy attacking!

The big race trends from Donny also had a good time of it. The Spring Mile winner, 16s>11/2 was on the trends shortlist but better was yet to come with Johan, 33s, who was on the long list of 10 and one of five who hit the sweet spot 6-11lb below top rated. I did flag SDS as a jockey to keep an eye on also.

Now I don't 'tip' in flat races, well bar the Chelt Festival I now only 'tip' in my 3m+ chases, but I'm always 'musing' and here's what I said about Johan in Saturday's blog... having used my trends as the 'way in'..

For interest and for fun (mirrored in how much I’ll be having on, esp compared to my tips) I am going to have change each-way on Johan at 33s or so, 6 places. I suspect he doesn’t have enough in hand to take this but he may have been freshened up with the move to Channon’s, who does well with stable switchers. SDS is on, he may send him forward from low in a race that lacks pace on paper at least, but they may no doubt go hard enough. He’s won fresh, can clearly be readied and at his best has a high level of big field handicapping form. There could be something else in him as a 5YO this season. Clearly it’s not a confident poke and very much for interest, but hopefully he can sneak a place and pay for a couple of pints in the process! I would expect one of the lightly raced ones to breeze home, but which one?

Fair to say he ran a bitter better than anticipated, i'd have been happy with a place! But there we go, all good fun. SDS bounced out, sat 2nd at a crawl as the pace map suggested may happen, nothing getting into it from behind. He's a good horse, but job done.

James B was happy anyway... "Followed you in on Johan Josh, 5 e/w so a great start to the flat, well found!"

Small stakes, great fun, that's what it's about.

Anyway, that's enough looking back...

Today's tips...

As we saw with my Musselburgh 'through the card' effort, often when I email out to the free list it all goes downhill! So, my members probably won't thank me and after Sunday I'm due a few duffers now (I had two yesterday) but even so, the tips and write ups are down below...

#1 – 4.45 Uttox – Premier DTroice – 1 point win – 17/2 (WH, BV) 8/1 (gen)

#2 – 4.45 Uttox – Rockys Treasure – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

*

Premier Dtroice – what is now a rare dip into a class 4, for all a 0-120, (as opposed to 0-115, 0-110, full of even less predictable animals). I’ve backed this horse once before five starts back at Fontwell in the Southern National, where he didn’t run much of a race and had a wind op soon after. He didn’t do much on his three starts after that but you could make excuses – a chance the yard were not going that well, two were right-handed and I’m not sure he likes going that way round (jumped out to left at Wincanton at times, both there and Ludlow may have been sharp enough) and Lingfield was a heavy ground bog, for all he wasn’t disgraced. All his best efforts have been on decent ground which he gets here today. He’s 5/21, 10p in his career and that’s an admirable win record, even more so in a race like this. He clearly doesn’t have an attitude problem and returned to better form at Warwick, over 3m6f in a C3. I’m not sure that track was ideal, esp the fences down the back, sticky at the odd one. But he made a move off the bend and wasn’t far off the winner approaching the last, before his stamina appeared to give way. We were on the staying on 2nd that day, who returned to form and is a solid yardstick for C3 level, as was the winner given how well handicapped he’d become. He now drops into a class 4, 3m and decent ground. He clearly stays 3m very well and a chance this is sharp enough also but I really hope Ben Poste may be more aggressive and maybe against this lower level of opposition (slower legs) he can hold a more prominent position, or at least not out the back. He’s 2/9,4p chasing, those two wins were ok efforts in Novice chases last April/June. He had a mark of 134 in his first handicap chase at Aintree in October, stayed on ok there, the winner being Corach Rambler. He’s turned out ok! He’s now running off 116 and he did post an RPR 125 LTO. He really should be cashing in on this mark at some point, at this level. Hopefully today.

The yard haven’t been having a great time of it, their last winner in October. But plenty have been running better recently and ‘running on’. With ‘trainer form’ there are different metrics to use of course, 0/12,3p in the last 30 days wouldn’t scream ‘in form’, nor would 45% rivals beaten. The Racing Post tells me 67% are ‘running to form’ against their RPRs, which is solid and indicates there are no concerns on that front, not at 8/1 anyway. The horse was evidently in form 16 days ago also which is more important! This is a target chase track for them also. 20 handicap chase winners in the last 5 years, 4 of those have been around here, Minella Celebration responsible for x3 of course, (same owners as this one), trainer/jockey 4/16,8p in handicap chases here, 2/7,4p over 3m.

There’s enough for me to have a go at 8s. He still has some upside potential, likes winning, arrives in form, will bounce off this ground (unlike a few I suspect), stays well, generally jumps well, is looking well handicapped, down in class. Plenty to like at 8s, on paper at least. That looks overpriced.

Rockys Treasure – a flyer at 20s that may amount to little but I’ve only backed him once I think and that was when winning for us at Doncaster in Dec 20, making all in an ok C2 at 14s>17/2 or so. Not that I remember the winners of course! That was off 138, 9 starts back, now running off 120 and dropping into a C4 for the first time since Nov 18. 2/2 at that level, for all novice chases. Evidently that shows a sign of regression, and he is 11, but he clearly still shows them something at home and he will find his level again as his mark continues to drop. Well it will either be that or he’ll be retired and found a new career no doubt. He certainly hasn’t done much this season however, they’ve put a tongue tie on him for each of those starts which he’d never worn before and a chance he hated it. He’s also been bustled up on the front end each time, his older legs unable to get away from C3 opposition, and I do think he may be best when able to dictate, or feeling he is dictating. He is a character and he’s in and out.

I suppose I’m rolling the dice at 20s that he’s on a going day. However, they’ve given him 69 days off, hopefully freshened up. He’ll be fit and has won after such breaks before. He will bounce off this ground.

The yard are going well, 4/16,8p last 14 days, 59% rivals beaten. David Bass jumps back on having not ridden the last twice, they remove the TT, he drops into an open looking C4 and… there is no pace on paper in this really. There is every chance that he gets a freebie up front. We know David will be aggressive anyway. I’ll live in hope he makes all, Premier having given him too much to do, running him down from 2 out, but maybe not quite getting there. It is for all those reasons I thought worth chancing at a big price. He is a veteran, his best days are behind him and he’s not the sort to wade into too often, but such results can be more likely at this level. He may never travel a yard and is swamped after 3 fences, back peddling. Don’t be shocked if that happens. I do think this track/CD will suit him.

Of the rest…

I looked hard at Clemencia, for Tim Vaughan and Alan Johns. Another from this yard I’ve no doubt got wrong! He is interesting as he’s got some very good hurdle form to his name at a much better level than this. He’s looking well handicapped and has the class I think. However, he is 1/19 now, proper good ground is a question (0/9,1p on good/good to soft, his only win on Soft) and stamina is a big question. He’s yet to win beyond 2m but has a few ‘running on’ effort over 2m4f, inc at Warwick two starts back, which make you think he could stay 3m. He’s not bred to. And he tried this trip at Hereford LTO and it was a ‘so so’ effort, running like a non stayer on the turn for home over that 25f. Maybe he prefers going LH, possibly. Maybe he does actually want good ground, who knows. In theory there should be a handicap chase in him from this mark but at what was a similar price I preferred the Price horse, who definitely has no stamina concerns and may well have a better attitude. Certainly has a better level of chase form, to date anyway. We shall see.

I can’t say I was falling over to back much else at the prices. I considered Young Offender at 7s, possibly still upside potential, his winning effort on seasonal reappearance/chase debut at Chepstow was decent for all he beat me into 2nd that day with a horse who’s now proven he simply doesn’t like a battle. He hasn’t done much since including a lacklustre run around here in a small field. That put me off a bit as does the fact they keep changing his headgear. He can beat me at that price, which if on a going day he might.

Looking at the rest…

Larkbarrow Lad doesn’t like winning chases, now 0/12,5p. He will just have to beat me at 9/2, happy to oppose, a bit of a shirker but maybe this will drop in his lap.

Kilbrook could go ok but again at 9/2 will have to beat me, the odd attitude question also, I’m not sure he likes a scrap and I’m not convinced he will stay – he has it to prove anyway and is open to attack from stronger stayers. Mixed messages on that front, but not for me today.

Captain Biggles makes chase debut, never ran in a point, and Aidan Coleman has decided/or been sent to Fontwell for his main ‘boss’, Olly Murphy. Got two shorties there I think. In any case, i’d be a bit more interested were he here. He’s had a break, wind op, I’ve no idea how he’ll take to chasing, but we’re going to find out. He’s the least exposed chaser in the race but maybe too experienced. No shock winner given that lightly raced profile but not for me today.

Frau Georgia returns after a break, her best form only ‘so so’ but does like the ground, has a bit of upside potential but I’m not sure she’ll be good enough. Yard a bit quiet. I wouldn’t be scratching my head if she won though but not for me, a few too many niggles and first start 136 days.

Hard To Forget is too unpredictable for me and his recent best form is probably below this level of oppo/a field size this big/deep etc. On a career high mark also. He’s a character, if he’s up for it he’ll breeze along for a time and you never know. He does like it around here, when on song.

That leaves the two biggies. Good Man Vinnie isn’t getting any younger, first run 98 days (Paul H 1/52,4p with his 60+ day horses last 2 years) and while he has course form, his best recent form is mediocre enough. Even if on song I’d like to think too deep.

Paris Texas is one to keep an eye on but hopefully not for today! Cost 4.5k over from Ireland, he does look an in and out character, seemingly winning out of nowhere when in Ireland for P Roche/JP. 1/16 chasing. He hasn’t done much since although his two runs after that over 25f were not too bad, in ok races. He is hard to weigh up but he wouldn’t have liked soft ground on debut LTO. He may take a while to acclimatise. He is the sort who may pop up somewhere over the summer but maybe in a weaker race, with that mark coming down a bit. While 2/27 in his career, he is 2/13, 5p on ground with ‘good’ in the going, 0/14,2p when softer. The race he won a few starts back was weak enough but if you like ‘trackers’, maybe worth adding. There could be a mediocre summer handicap chase somewhere for him. Hopefully this one is a bit too deep, we shall see.

Pace wise… well Rockys will go forward, hopefully all alone and on a going day. Young Offender will try and track. Sean may want Captain B up there, with space, out of trouble, if his jumping is good enough. Or maybe a quiet run out the back. Larkbarrow usually tracks as do the rest slotting in. Hopefully Ben P has his closer, his C3 cruising speed may naturally see him more prominent with any luck. An interesting little race.

GL if following me in, (or using the write up to land on something else!)

All the best, Josh