Hello Friend

Today was quiet enough in my members' post with no 'tipping race' of choice. So, I thought i'd have a go at Musselburgh and produce a 'through the card'. 

The last one of these I did was a blank (urgh), but usually I flag 2-3 winners, so we shall see! In any case, you may enjoy the read, it could be useful for placepot purposes, or you may just note the odd stat or horse for the future.

Most of what's flagged below I can find at the click of a button in the unparalleled suite of racecard tools that is Geeegee Gold (as always, 30 day trial HERE >>>)  

Let's crack on, I hope you enjoy flicking through... (prices correct when posted at 9am)

Fingers crossed,

Josh

Musselburgh ‘through the card’

1.15 – none

1.45 – Collingham (9/2) (NB)

2.20 – Zamond (12/1) / Iolani (12/1)

2.55 – White Walker (8/1)

3.30 – Ravenscar 7/1 (NAP)

4.05 – Garde Des Champs (7/2)

4.40 – none (notes below inc an 11/1 shot, Pasture Beach)

… I’ve never been a fan of ‘naps’ and ‘next best’, psychologically makes little sense to me unless you have strict criteria for such things (most people appear to just make the shortest one the nap!) but in any case, I thought I'd label a couple of them above as such! Place lay maybe :)

Notes 

1.45 –

Collingham –

I thought it best to have some eyes on the McCain juggernaut today, given the red hot form they’ve been in for an age. I’ve no idea what he’s feeding them but they’re clearly all healthy and happy at the moment. 13/41, 17p in the last 14 days, another treble yesterday. Hughe’s obviously gets first pick as stable jockey and it’s worth noting that together around Muss in the last 365 days, they’re 10/25, 16p, +7. Mad. For my sins I’ve only just finished reading Ginger McCain’s autobiography, but well worth a read if you haven’t. Great stuff. I digress…

The other thing to mention of course is that this is ‘series qualifier’ weekend across the north (other finals at Kelso on Sat and Carlisle on Sunday) and it’s worth assuming that plenty have been targeted at these races, given the prize pots on offer.

To this horse… well trainer/jockey form is obviously more than fine. It is a 4YO handicap hurdle, most lightly raced in this sphere, plenty lightly raced in handicaps. Something will take a big step forward here again and I’m hoping it’s McCains. He makes handicap debut and McCain has perfected that art in the last year, 13/39, 19p, +30 with such types. Worth noting. This one hacked up 2 starts ago, in a so so race maybe, but some of his form before that read ok. It was the best ground he’s faced, and this should be ‘good’ come race time. I’ll put LTO down to the heavy ground, but it was a classy race also. He gets 1st CP here and runs in a handicap for the first time. He’s a course winner and I’m expecting a big big run. Some of his efforts ‘on the figures’ are a few lengths quicker than what anything else has done in here, but of course how a race is run, and improvement from race to race can affect such things. But he’s open to as much improvement as anything else in here.

There were none others I really looked at or that would annoy me in this race. Collingham or nothing.

2.20 –

Iolani – maybe he’s the ‘in with a chance’ (IWAC) horse on the card at the odds. I suppose he’s obvious enough… he bolted up in this race last year, he’s only 1lb above his last winning mark in a C2 at Kelso, (5lb higher than the win last year) and it looks as though he’s had exactly the same prep – a break, returning for one run at Newcastle, before running in this. Clearly it’s been a plan and he’s beaten plenty of these before also. The CP return, left off last time, and 12s just looked big given all that. I wanted him onside, he is 10, but knows where the winning post is and if he runs his race, should be bang there again.

Zamond – another of McCains (and Hughes) and he’s more interesting, a possible dark horse. He could just be useless! Last August he hacked up in a good ground Irish handicap hurdle off 89. It maybe wasn’t much of a race but there’s a chance they’ve been minding his mark, with this race in mind. There’s the general context that horses can take time to acclimatise from Ireland. He made his yard debut at Wetherby in Dec, soft ground which wouldn’t have suited. Catterick in Jan may have been soft enough but in any case he UR at the 6th – that was the qualifier for this, and I assume you just qualify by turning up in said race, no other conditions. You just have to run in a qualifier. Having qualified… they then removed his blinkers, which he’d worn in Ireland and on his first fire starts for McCain. He didn’t run badly at Sedge but held up cold, slowly run race, staying on but well beaten. Clever. Soft ground again LTO and over 19f. They’ve kept him ticking along.

Brian Hughes jumps on for the first time and the blinkers return. On paper, it looks the perfect plan – but there could be noting in everything I’ve said there, but you have to try and put yourself in the trainer’s shoes, even if you’re wide of the mark. However, I suspect he may leave behind a mark of 98 at some point, unless he’s just moderate. He’s only 6, nothing on his back here, and like more of these C2 finals today, it’s not a great level for the class, generally. I’m surprised there haven’t been more southern raiders/qualifiers, for easy pickings.

The one horse who hits that box is Byzantine Empire for Fergal of course. He may well take this and outclass them. 7/2 looked short enough, this mark poses a question as does the speedy nature of this CD I thought. Worthy fav, but beatable. Hopefully one of my 12s shots can take this.

2.55 –

I toyed between White Walker and Moon King in this, and maybe both are wide of the mark. I wasn’t overly confident on this race but White Walker will no doubt be my only winner now. In any case, he’s interesting. He returns here after a break and this simply has to have been the plan, having qualified LTO. It may not have been a plan when he qualified and I suspect he was always having a winter break after a busy spell/to avoid winter ground, but they’ll have decided to aim him at this since Jan I suspect. I’d be disappointed if he isn’t a1, and the yard are in decent form, 2/4,3p the last 14 days. I remain convinced there’s more to come from him and this mark – he’s a strong travelling type (sometimes too strong) who they like to hold onto and deliver late. Sometimes they’re too patient, but most of his hurdles form has a really solid look to it, esp that Uttox and Warwick efforts in Sept – 16 subsequent winners out of those, in and around well handicapped horses. He may well have won at Warwick but for walking 2 out. He always cruises around like he’s chucked in still. (has more wins in him this summer) I think this easier 3m may suit him, for all he will need a strong pace, or for Kevin B not to have him right out the back. He will appreciate having had some time off.

I pondered Moon King plenty at 11/2 or so, as he could get an easy lead and Lilly will try and make all. He does keep losing/placing, and can hit a hurdle, but there’s a chance the level of those placed efforts is just better than what anything else has done in here. He will appreciate this easy 3m also and his form reads ok. If he runs his race I can’t see him out the first 4, just whether he bumps into 1 or 2 again which he always appears to do. He gives the impression he tries, but he hasn’t repeated his best flat runs over hurdles as yet – he’d dot up in this race if he ever did.

I wasn’t that sold on much else, Wynford interesting to a point but not at 11/4 for me. I may not have mentioned the winner of course.

3.30 –

Ravenscar – hmm, I started with Latino Fling here, read Adam’s notes, watched this one’s Newcastle hurdle win back and changed my mind! In part due to being a bigger price also of course. I’d like to think this has been a plan and the AW run LTO was to keep her ticking over. She bolted up at Newcastle over hurdles before that, beating up Millarville in the process (and Cancan), who’s won since. The winning margin doesn’t suggest an easy victory but she was still on the bridle approaching the last when everything else was scrubbing along. She moved as if this mark is still rather lenient. She hit the front after that, maybe too soon, and pulled herself up, just clinging on. Tommy will want something else to take him deep into this, sprinting past after the last maybe! This trip is a question, but having won over 16f on the flat, and having stayed on at Sedge over 17f when outpaced, I concluded it may be a reason for further improvement. The yard are in ok form for them, they have loads of runners and are never red hot, but 4/27, 8p last 14 days is solid enough, ticking along.

I concluded she had a bit more about her than Latino Fling – who does also have a stamina question and can over race a little. I do think she’ll run a big race though, this trip may be fine, an ex 3m point winner. Two starts back she was winning on her first start after a wind op which appeared to make a difference, dropped to 16f also. LTO she travelled well, didn’t get a run at the top of the hill and Brian appeared to let her just coast home there. I thin 98 may be lenient, she will race prominently and I expect a big run. Her Catt win is now 0/8,2, I thought Ravenscar was far more impressive at Newcastle and that form has more substance. I suppose that’s swung it also, at a bigger price. Maybe they’ll be battling it out. Or I’m nowhere near!

Cancan should run well, solid EW option with 4p but keeps losing also without an excuse really. Solid though, may appreciate a decent pace, and won’t be far away. Millarville will give it a good go from the front also, maybe now open to attack from something better treated. Maybe, maybe not. I do think Kirby’s is the most interesting, unless her run LTO was a sign of going out of form as quickly as she came into it. I’m hoping that was a prep for this.

4.05 –

Garde Des Champs – not a race I had a strong view on really, they all look much of a muchness and this isn’t a great race. This one makes handicap debut, first start after a wind op, Hughes is on. I thought that interesting although this isn’t part of the Series finale so it could be this hasn’t been a plan. In any case he’ll appreciate the decent ground, and that run here two starts back was good I thought – he gave it a good go against the 122 rated Thunder Rock, who won at 1/5, but he had to get serious after the last before easing away. That horse won a C2 on his next start down at Hunt, so some substance. I thought he was interesting enough for all the market may guide. Connections will be hoping he’s better than a 110 horse at some point.

4.40 –

No real thoughts on the bumper. I suppose the five who’ve had a run all look mediocre enough for all they’re open to a big step forward (Pasture Beach may be the most interesting of those, more below). But they all need to. You’d think this is there for the taking for an unraced one…

Sawpit Samantha may be that one but clearly too short to wade into. Hughes booked, they’ve trekked up from their Worcestershire yard. You’d have to assume she’ll be fit enough, will she be good enough? Our Laura B interesting to a point although Haslam’s can come on plenty for it but he is 1/2 with his NHF runners in last 5 years.

Maybe Pasture Beach at 11s is the one for ‘interest change’, if you must! She made her debut 103 days ago in Carlisle soft, so at least gets completely different ground here as a reason for improvement. The trainer /jockey combo caught the eye also – 4/17, 8p in the last year, +3, his 10lb claim may come in handy. Horse has first run after a wind op also. This isn’t a great race, so you never know.

I think that’s the lot, good luck,

Josh