Hello, Friend

As I write to you I'm on weather watch for our RTP Syndicate horse, Kaleb, who will hopefully take his chance at Haydock tomorrow in the 12.10. I'm waiting for our trainer, Amy Murphy, to phone the clerk as he wont' run on 'heavy', but as I type somehow the official going is 'soft, good to soft' in places. I'm not sure I believe that! But with 21 owners descending on course, hopefully he runs and does himself proud, in what looks a deep race/tough opposition. Do cheer him on...

The last time I emailed you I cursed my two pokes in the Vets Chase - in truth I just got Ramses D T very wrong, fair play to him, Tom Scu and David Pipe. I wasn't sure he'd have the pace for around there over 3m, I knew after 3 fences I'd made an error. Given the form of the yard, his mark, wind op and class, in hindsight that decision looked a bit silly, but then they always do post race.

The '10 YO/first run in a Vets Chase' is a good angle (the front 3 hit that), and it's worth noting the form of the yard, on fire. De Rasher Counter ran his race, does that mark sum him up? I don't know. He's got something in him, over further?. Still, that was a strong Vets chase and Ramses hit he line hard/eased down, to suggest he's got another win in him also. The Vets final in Jan? Or will they change their plans...

Of course, having sent you my losers, Adam tipped a winner and a decent place for a +12 point day, alas. Apologies. Always the way!

As such, I just thought i'd send you all our thoughts today, now that members and trialists have had chance to get on. Some of the prices have moved a bit, but you may enjoy the read. Hopefully they don't all fall out the back of the tv! (gulp)

My Tips

2.40 Ascot –

Bobhopeornohope – 2 point win – 5/1 (bet365, PP, WH, BetfS)

Cat Tiger – 1 point win – 9/2 (WH), 4/1 (gen)

Adam’s Tips

3.05 Catterick –

Who’s In The Box – 2 point win – 5/1 (gen)

Nick Kent’s eight-year-old isn’t endowed with pace so the rain has come in time for this diminutive chaser, who enjoys these smaller tracks and is handicapped to win again. Having enjoyed a good first season over fences he found life tougher last term, struggling in better races from higher marks, but still managed a close third in the North Yorkshire National here in January. He is now on a 10lb lower mark so it will be disappointing if he can’t go close again with his astute trainer having sent out a couple of winners in the last week.

Frimeur De Lancray – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365, 888) 9/1 Gen)

This seven-year-old has had a muddling career to date but there’s little doubt that his best efforts have come when the emphasis is on stamina and he is expected to relish today’s test. Still a novice after twice going down narrowly last season, he resumed in the hottest race of it type to date at a track that doesn’t seem to suit. With the cobwebs blown away and the yard in much better form now, there is every reason to expect a much different performance this time around at a track where he scored over hurdles, and from a career low mark.

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My Tip write up…

2.40 Ascot -

Shortlist: Bobhopeornohope , Cat Tiger

Bobhopeornohope – I thought 5s was fair here for a horse who Bass may launch forward, trying to make all. In any case he should be right up there. He improved plenty last season for the application of the CP, a step up to 3m and softer ground. There’s every reason to expect more to come this season, just a case of when he shows it. He races prominently, jumps, stays and likes winning. He’s uncomplicated and I thought Ascot would suit him. The yard are in flying form and trainer/jockey have a superb record around here over fences. Fitness is a question, one I haven’t really got right this season (proven 1st time out winners flopping, those who’ve historically needed it bolting up etc) – the reality is, especially with an older horse, (some trainers not pushing younger horses ultra hard at home for first run of season) that most trainers these days can ready one first time up if they wish. Some are stuffy, burly types who take a run or two, but generally, maybe it’s best assume they’re fit, if you like the price/think value. In any case, this one has won fresh over hurdles, and wasn’t beaten far on his return last season, on chase debut. He was a bit keen that day but stayed on ok, beaten by Castle Robin and Lord Accord – that form has worked out ok. His form has a solid look to it, especially two starts back when beating Jimmy The Digger, who got outpaced, ran on into 2nd, and would win at Cheltenham on his return a few weeks back. It could be he runs well until 2 out and then tires, but at 5s I’ll take the chance.

The pace angle, his running style, his form, progressive profile, yard form and indeed the jockey make me prefer him to Cat Tiger in terms of staking/confidence…

Cat Tiger – had I taken this ‘saver/split stakes’ approach more often in this season to date i’d have around +25 more points in the pot, but have at times forced myself to pick one from a shortlist of two, only for disaster to strike. Sigh. The form of Nicholls, the horse’s record fresh, his profile (could still be more to come as a staying handicapper) and his course form make him a bet at 4s. He’s a very good jumper who often sits behind the pace. The one niggle of course is always David Maxwell, who can ride ok and does know this horse well. He’s not getting any younger and his fitness from 2/3 out can ebb away – he won’t outride David Bass, and I think hell have to chase him down, but he could just sail past if that one tires, or they’ll be battling it out. He has some solid form to his name, including in France, and his win record is mad. I wanted him onside but not for 2 points, it would be rather annoying if Bob does tie up for Cat to win, +2 putting me in a better mood than -2.

Maybe the forecast will be landed, who knows! (that’s probably asking for too much, but 3 out, Bob should be the one to catch if he’s still standing)

of the rest…

Well they can beat me and i’ll live with it.

Smarty Wild doesn’t have a great record fresh to date (but of course Hobbs can ready them) and I’m still to be convinced he stays 3m, and certainly not around Ascot if they go a gallop. I could have that wrong, arguably still unproven, but I think stronger stayers here. He can also be patiently ridden, not for me today at 9/2, i’d want bigger.

Kapga – well the Venetia form still so so. She did win this last year but is 10lb higher and I thought that may stop her. I was happy to leave at 9/2 but if a1 would be thereabouts, but open to something with a bit more up their sleeve.

I didn’t really like the rest…

I suppose the old boy Regal Encore is always to be noted around here. Maybe he’s worth £2 on the machine for interest (but more heart than head) – it could be he badly needed his return but he was laboured from a fair way out, too far for my liking. But he is 14 and maybe he will put up a much better performance here. I could see him being nibbled at, but does he have the legs anymore? I couldn’t wade in with him, younger/more progressive often best, and if he wins this then a few above him won’t have done very well at all. I can cheer him home unbacked if mine are stuffed.

The rest have enough questions for me. El Presente looks out of form for the time being and didn’t want the rain. The others, including Larry, don’t have a great record after a break, and I’ve assumed they’ll all come on for the run, although having said that…

It’s not impossible they’ve got Larry ready, given his course form, but he can be patiently ridden, can hit a fence, and the form of his win here so-so. The wheels came off a bit last season also. But Ascot form can count for a bit. He was going to win on his seasonal return last year, the three returns before that were very laboured, so who knows if he’s fit. His mark is fine, his win around here ok for all benefitted from a pace burn up. He’s inconsistent also, not for me today, and again, I’ve gone with two open to further progress this season over 3m. If he ran to his very best, he’ll be staying on, hopefully my two long gone by then.

Pace… Bob should be up there, Kapga not too far away, Cat tracking those maybe – he doesn’t want to be in front too long.

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Have a great day,

Josh