Good Morning, Friend

Well it's pleasing to email out with a spring in my step. Adam and I both fired in winners yesterday for a +14 point day, in what up to that point had been a frustrating start to the season in truth. But, that's the great game, it's a challenge, and the profit piles up quickly enough when hitting a good run.

We've been reading it ok, but some dodgy late decisions with shortlists of two, especially on my part! The odd frustrating 2nd and faller when cruising, but that's jumps racing for you.

I thought i'd curse my two pokes at Warwick today by emailing out to you all! In any case, hopefully you find the preview interesting to a point.

Before that...

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To Warwick...

3.15 Warwick – De Rasher Counter – 2 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (WH, 888, BV)

3.15 Warwick – Cobolobo – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 18/1 (gen)

Tip write up…

Shortlist… Celebre DAllen, De Rasher Counter, Cobolobo

De Rasher Counter – this looks a cracker of a renewal, worthy to grace any Vets Final, esp if they’d all had a run. I wanted Emma’s Hennessy winner onside here, aged 10, first go in a Vets chase, quite a ‘drop’ in class from previous contests. He arrives fit and in form also, apparently having a big blow after his Kelso return, where he ran well to two out and then tiring after the last. That was a deep race also against solid handicappers, form that could work out well. He was near Evas Oscar who ran a cracker for us at Chelt on Sunday, Does He Know lined up in this also when UR at the first. The front two are solid horses, the winner Sounds Russian ultra progressive with good form. De Rasher was hampered early that day also but jumped/galloped just fine off the pace. He may appreciate this softer ground.

I also found it interesting they had him entered in both the 'Hennessy' and The Becher Chase, but connections have wisely (in my view) lowered his sights. He’s here to run his race and if he runs his race, and can’t go close against these, I’m not sure where they go next. He hasn’t done much since his Hennessy run but his profile not as bad as it looks – that season he appeared to leave his race at Newbury, but did then have a mark of 158, which is tough if you’re only a very good handicapper and not a graded horse. His seasonal return in Oct 2020 over hurdles was good, before then suffering an injury. He wasn’t seen until Feb 22, where the plan was The Grand National. He ran in the Denman chase after 489 days against G1 horses, but was bang there after 3 out, before tiring. He was going along ok at Aintree out the back when in effect brought down. His return at Kelso was decent, and here we are today. He’s only 3/12,5p over fences, if retaining any ability, he should have vets races in him from this mark. It could be that he hasn’t actually regressed that much at all, this will tell us plenty. At 13/2 - 7s, I wanted him onside here, that looked overpriced. He should track the pace, pop away and keep going.

Cobolobo – more of a poke but I decided i’d be rather annoyed if he went close here at 18s gen (he may well drift further, and if so, likely not today). Again, he’s a 10 YO having his first go in a Vets chase, which is always a good starting point in these races. He’s won/gone close on seasonal return previously and some of his class 3 efforts, under big weights, have been decent. Some of his best handicapping form reads well. Trainer/jockey have a fine record around here in chases (6/19, 8p +14) and I found it interesting he runs in Vets company. It could be this is a prep/qualifier for the final at Sandown in Jan, but at the prices I’ll roll the dice.

There is a ‘class’ question, and if this were a non-vets Class 2, then I’d likely swerve, but vets company can be a slight step down and some of his best efforts would be good enough to put him thereabouts. He will appreciate the rain, 10-8 on his back, and his first 1-3 starts of the season have been the time to catch him, for all he is inconsistent. I hope he jumps off near the front and gets in a rhythm. We could have some fun if he does and he’s here to run his race. In any case, at 18s I’ll roll the dice.

Of the others…

I may well look silly for opposing Celebre DAllen and doing so with 3 points. He is also 10, first run in a Vets race, and his first go over 3m for Hobbs (some 2m6f form in France), and there is a chance he relishes it. However, he does have to prove he stays and his running style poses questions – well, he’s usually ridden very cold and has to close at speed, and have more luck than when you’re handier. It could be over this trip he lobs along closer to the pace of course.

I doubt fitness will be a problem but Hobbs isn’t prolific with his 3m handicap chasers, 60+ days off… 2/61,16p in the last 5 years. Enough have gone close, but I can hope he hasn’t got enough work into him. I suppose I could see him winning well enough for all not sure the class of a tip top De Rasher Counter, but he does have to prove the fire still burns (as yet no evidence it doesn’t) I could have gone each-way on him but thought that would be weak enough, for all i’d be shocked if he were out the first four.

I didn’t really like much else and if I’ve got one wrong, so be it.

Snow Leopardess is being aimed at the Becher Chase and off this mark, they may have left enough to work on. (i could be wrong) I can’t think they’d want her winning this and turning up at Aintree 3-6lb higher say. As these horses get older they can take longer to get fit. Cepage drops into Vets company for the first time, still with stamina to prove for me, although not many goes. This is a ‘drop’ in class form him but fintess to prove (hasn’t won fresh although gone close), stamina to prove, the yard still a bit iffy and under a big weight. Evidently this mark is workable but I’ll hope Venetia has the final in sights and can get this mark down a bit more, while getting him fitter. I could have got him very wrong.

I thought the handicapper may have both Wishing And Hoping and Wandrin Star, and that in any case, they may just lack the class of some of these, this deeper than most of their recent races and the former put in his place by the fav here last season, although over shorter. I wasn’t sure Ramses would have the pace for this course (I could be very wrong) and a chance he needs the run also, the odd question for him, but if a1, could run a big race. Yard in fine form. I didn’t think Calipso C would have the class. Gwencily needed the run last season and hopefully this is a prep for a return to Exeter. Potters has enough questions and this could be sharp enough.

So, a fascinating race. Maybe my two run crackers to the last and Celebre A looms up and powers clear, I can envisage that, but hopefully this is run at a good pace, one of them is a few lengths up over the last and has enough up their sleeve, the jolly either not quite getting there or not seeing it out/needing it slightly.

Pace… Wishing only knows one way to run, Ramses and Wandrin Star may be handy, Cepage, Snow L can be handy also. Cobolobo, if here to run his race, should be up there also. If held up, I’ll know my fate at flag fall. De Rasher should be able to track the pace. There should be no hiding place here today, another reason De Rasher’s race fitness may help also.

Adam has a couple of tips today which I won't share, for fear of cursing them all, but no doubt my two will now bomb out and his two will waltz home. The great game!

Thanks for reading,

Josh

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