Good Morning, Friend
A couple of things to muse over today, and some stats to note from Ffos Las...
First up, you can read Sam Darby's Free Tips Friday post HERE >>>
Sam's in decent form, nailing the 1,2,3 in last week's column (for all no trifecta, alas!) and for today he fancies Persuasion in the 3.10 Thirsk, who at 11/2 or so is hopefully an EW bet to nothing.
Sam fired in over +40 points yesterday and pulled in +106 points profit in August for his members, a 55% ROI, taking him to +251.55 points profit for 2023 to date, to advised prices/stakes - he did say he was particular good from July onwards, and so far, so good! He does know his onions and with any luck he can repeat the dose in September, a month where he's been +200 points in 2 of the last 3 years. Fingers crossed!
You can read this week's free article, including thoughts on all the opposition, HERE >>>
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To Ffos Las...
I just about escaped alive with my Newcastle 'TTC', a 4s>15/2 winner limiting the damage, 1/11,5p for those picks, -2.5 points to SP if backing the lot to level stakes. I could have done with one of my three seconds winning, but a game of fine margins, but ultimately frustrating I couldn't land on one more winner, next time.
Over at Ffos Las...
Rossa Ryan... appears to be a jockey to keep onside at the Welsh venue, 8/16,9p, +24 SP all rides here in the last year...he's got three tonight you may wish to flick through...
6.20 - Insanity - 7/4
7.20 - Lowick - 13/2
7.50 - Lock The Vault - 10/3
Lowick needs a bit more but could be getting the hang of things, and having hung left at Windsor, she may appreciate this rail on her inside. She'd have been much closer last time if running straight, maybe the GF ground finding her out. The 2nd that day won his next start, for some form substance. I think she could be thereabouts in the places, but needs a bit more for win purposes. The main positive with her, other than Rossa jumping on, is the form of the Kubler team, 6/14,8p +21 SP in the last 14 days, a proper hot spell for them, and all runners worth a second glance. They've potentially got a few runners over the next few days.
Lock The Vault - this 80 000 guineas yearling arrives here off a mark of 65 and they'll be hoping he can progress past that at some stage, maybe today on handicap debut? There are plenty of stats to support his case... Beckett in fine form, 30% odd SR last 14 days, and with Rossa riding, 13/32,19p, +24 SP in the last month. I flagged them a few days back and they've had some winners since. Beckett does well at the course, inc 8/19,11p, 25 SP with 3YOs here. This one steps up to 2m for the first time, and Cracksman's offspring operate at 20% over marathon trips, so maybe it will work wonders. It could suggest he's a bit slow of course!
The horse also gets 1st Blinkers... and Ralph is a trainer to note when applying it for the first time... with all handicappers, aged 2 or 3, sent off 14/1 or shorter SP...
110 bets / 27 winners/ 47p / 25% sr / +145 BFSP
Within those stats he's actually 3/5,4p with Ffos Las runners, so hopefully Lock The Vault can add to the haul.
For those who like saving a micro angle, that looks worth adding in! But all his runners in 1st Blinkers are worth noting, inc in non-handicaps.
As always, do with those musings as you please.
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There's no Big Race Trends action this Saturday, but I'll have a browse and see if I can flag anything of interest.
Meanwhile, our Dancing Eyes runs in the 6.30pm Wolves. She has come on from her debut at home but it looks a hot little contest, and all those with a run will have come on bundles also, including the one who flew past us late. I think she'll be bang there turning in, and then we'll see what happens! Most of those cost x4 her price and the market suggests much is expected. Hopefully our girl can be competitive to a point, comes home safe, and we go on from there.
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As always, thanks for reading and GL with any bets,
Josh
