Good Morning, Friend

I hope you've had a great week. Below there's a quick re-cap on my jumps season just gone, before that...

I thought I'd curse my only tip posted to my members today, this a sure fire way to get her out of the four! Urgh.

Today’s Tips & Notes

5.25 DownP – Mothership – 1 point Each-Way – 13/2 (1/5,4p)

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The last free tip I sent you, from Punchestown, may still be running! Atrocious, never in it. Hopefully this one runs a bit better, but these free emails tend to curse them.

Thankfully my Punchestown was rather good on the blog, 3/10, +25 points, including a 1-2. All three winners in big field handicap hurdles at 12s, 15s and 13/2. It was a great week and a welcome final flourish to my jumps season proper.

My tips on the blog, from start Oct to end Punchestown finished up on...

328 tips / 47 winners / 14.33% win SR / 22.45% ROI / +77.35 points (as advised in morning/non-bog)

I'm +58.7 points up in 2025 so far.

All good fun and some nice returns to reasonable stakes:

£5 bets = +£385

£10 bets = +£770

£25 bets = +£1925

A decent jumps season and I'd take those stats every time, as always a couple of big spikes along the way, treading water some months, the odd losing month, the odd small profit. That's how it goes and will always go, but plenty of content to get stuck into as well as my own tips/opinions. It's a game where long term profit is more than achievable, with application and patience.

The trick is to keep it up of course, but that's now +153 points since the start of Day 1 Cheltenam Festival 2024, which I'll take :) That includes a +60 point or so Royal Ascot 2024 and I wouldn't mind repeating the trick, for all that will be difficult, but I do like those big field handicaps.

Some nice returns there to more than cover subs and leave a bit left over for whatever you enjoy in life, as well as having some excitement along the way of course.

Onwards.

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Below are my notes for the above tip...

I’ll be disappointed if this mare is out the first four here, and if she builds on her return LTO/runs her race, she just can’t be, and I thought would go close to winning in what is a truly atrocious race, all bar Our Zebo are maidens I think. Mothership was given plenty of experience last summer when handicapped, and maturing, for all she ran the odd solid race of promise, especially on decent ground. Her return 25 days ago was eye-catching to me, travelling well, jumping well, not really asked for too much effort until late but a lady Amateur, for all a decent enough one. She stayed on well there, but sent off 12s, maybe wasn’t meant to get much closer and will surely sharpen up plenty for the effort. The ground was softer also, kept wide, churned up, her profile suggests she should improve for this sounder surface. The yard have hit a minor purple patch also, father/son 2/5,2p in the last 14 days, Paddy getting better with experience and 4/18,10p all rides around here, inc 2/8,3p in handicap hurdles for his old man. To me she shaped LTO as if ready to strike here and hopefully gets a more forceful ride. Of course you never know how they’ll handle this unique track but she looks to have some zip which could help.

She reopposes Our Zebo here but with jockey claims, is 19lb better off, now race fit, better ground, and a chance this tighter track doesn’t suit the former as well – she must go close to overturning that for me.

I am lacking my ‘hot form’ hook but then nothing else in here has pulled up any trees and has any recent runs sending me for cover, in terms of how races have worked out, who they’ve bumped into etc. I’ll trust my eyes on that last start, along with the yard form etc. It looks a very poor race, and happy to roll the dice.

Sights Unseen should go ok, stamina to prove, off 70 days, yard form a bit in and out and with an inexperienced pilot on top who’s 0/27,5p in the last year, 0/18,5p for Gavin, hopefully Paddy outrides him, we’ll see. I thought he was short and worth opposing. Butchers Bill is well related, could go ok dropped in ttrip and no doubt an aggressive ride incoming, Gordon’s going so-so also, a maiden, this CD a question, happy to oppose again, and the rest have even more questions for all the sort of race where something can pop up.

I’ll be mildly bemused (granted usual luck in running etc) if this isn’t money back, + small change, as a worst case, but we’ll see!

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Thanks for reading,

All the best

Josh