Hello, Friend,
If you hadn't noticed the Cheltenham Festival is around the corner! At this rate there could be more 'preview evenings' than runners, although if you've watched any good'uns, do let me know! I try and avoid them generally, bar the odd one, as you can have too much noise, if indeed you enjoy trying to solve the puzzle yourself.. Some of them have far too many people on the panel and say very little of significance, but maybe that's just me! In saying that, a few are good entertainment.
Below you can find my 'trends profile' for The Ultima Handicap Chase & The Boodles on Day 1 - I'm busying pulling together my stats & trends report and will likely just send it out for free, hopefully by next Wednesday.
First, I thought i'd flag Matt Tombs' 'Cheltenham Insight' articles over at Matchbook.
He looks at trainers, old course vs new course, impact of watering and the handicaps. I found them interesting and they're all worth a flick through...
You can read them HERE >>> (this isn't an affiliate link)
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My Trends pointers...
Day 1
2.50 pm -Ultima Handicap Chase
15/319 59p
15/15 had run at track previously (had not: 0/48, 8p)
15/15 finished top 6 LTO or UR (did not: 0/94, 12p)
14/15, 5th or lower in weights exc claims (top 4: 1/72, 13p)
14/15 had run at Grade 1 or G2 (had not: 1/82, 10p)
14/15 had 0-10 handicap runs (11+ : 1/129, 12p)
14/15 had 0-9 handicap chase runs (10+: 1/80, 9p)
14/15 had 0-6 places in chases (7+ : 1/90, 13p)
13/15 IRE origin (13/188, 37p)
GB: 1/57, 11p
FR: 1/65, 10p
13/15 max distance run was between 3m-3m3f (was not: 2/119, 16p)
13/15 placed at least once last three starts (had not: 2/70, 11p)
13/15 ran left handed last start (RH: 2/119, 16p)
13/15 ran in a non-major or G2 race LTO (did not: 2/147, 25p)
10/15 wore CP or Blinkers (10/102, 19p) (did not: 5/217, 40p)
0/15 ran at Kempton or Newbury LTO (0/62,6p)
Trainers
-Jonjo O’Neill: 3/17, 4p
-David Pipe: 3/17, 7p
-X1: S Smith, L Russell, N Mulholland, D Bridgewater, J Moffatt, C Tizzard, A King, N Williams, N Henderson
-P Nicholls: 0/14,1p; V Williams: 0/18,1p, NTD: 0/20,0p
4.50 pm -Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
15/337, 60p
15/15 WON at least once last three starts or ‘no previous form’ (first run UK/IRE) (did not: 1/96, 15p)
15/15 yet to run at Cheltenham (had: 0/65, 7p)
15/15 NOT 2nd or 3rd LTO (were: 0/131, 19p) (could be illogical stat, unless overrated/shown hand)
15/15 ran in non-handicaps LTO (handicap: 0/44,8p)
15/15 as described in HRB ran in a ‘hurdle’ or ‘novice hurdle’ LTO (did not: 0/79, 15p)
14/15 NOT GB origin (GB: 1/63, 7p)
14/15 NOT running of same rating as LTO (were: 1/57, 8p)
14/15 did NOT wear a tongue-tie LTO (did: 1/59, 8p)
10/15 had 2 runs this calendar year (10/114, 23p, +248 BFSP) (had not: 5/223, 37p)
Trainers
-G Eilliott: 3/25, 8p
-P Nicholls: 3/25, 11p
-X1: P Roche, M G Quinlan, A Moore, E Lavelle, J O’Brien, N Meade. T Easterby, N Williams, N Henderson
-A King: 0/24,4p , W Mullins: 0/16, 3p
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All the best,
Josh
p.s there's still time to put 'The Challenge' to the test with a 7 day free trial, and maybe win +1000 points in the next year? This offer closes tomorrow. Worth paper trading for the next week... CLICK HERE >>>
