Good Morning, Friend

To Cheltenham...

I hope you're having a good week. Racing returns to jumps HQ today for all drying ground isn't ideal.

A couple of things for you today. First up a 'tip' from resident pro punter Adam Norman, who banged in a +10 point profit yesterday, so hopefully a glut of winners in coming.

There then follows a 'through the card' from myself.

My Huntingdon efforts didn't go too well of course, but hopefully this better class of racing leads to better results. The two 'through the cards' before that found 8/13 winners, inc x3 at Chelts last meeting. However, when spending 5-10 minutes on a race, you do miss plenty. Esp when this competitive. As always I've tried to say the odd thing of interest, including some stats, to note down for future reference..

Let's crack on...

Adam’s Tips

2.55 Cheltenham – My Manekineko – 1 point Each-Way – 25/1 (gen)

With question marks over all participants in this veterans chase it’s worth taking a closer look at the Irish raider, who appears to be in good order despite rising 14. He showed what he was capable of on these shores when going down narrowly in a similar type of race at Haydock in the spring over a trip that stretches his stamina. He runs off the same mark here and with one of his regular pilots taking off 5lb he will be carrying a feather weight on ground that suits well. Most of his opponents would prefer a longer trip so there should be a good honest pace, which is a must for this come-from-behind merchant. Kauto Riko and Magic Dancer made most appeal of those at the head of the market but are quirky enough and don’t find winning easy, while Ballyandy is opposable over fences. With Native Robin and Broken Quest looking high in the weights after running up hat-tricks and Saint Xavier a soft ground horse with jumping issues, the race couldn’t be framed better for the selection who is fancied to pick the pockets of more fancied rivals late on.

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Cheltenham ‘Day 1’

It looks an easy day at HQ! Ahem. Still, a ‘through the card’ below for mild interest to use as you please (the odd single, placepot, muggy multiple, fun forecasts etc)…

1.10 – Fine Casting 11/2 / Hardy Boy 10/1

1.45 – Malystic – 10-12/1

2.20 – Super Six – 15/2

2.55 – Magic Dancer 7/2

3.30 – Quid Pro Quo – 14/1

4.00 – Master Dancer 9/2 / Mothill 10/1

Notes…

1.10 – I really like Ben Pauling’s pair in this, the yard reinvigorated since a move. There’s no doubt there is plenty more to come from both of these at some point in handicaps, hopefully starting here. This trip could unlock plenty more for Fine Casting, some of his form from last season reading well esp in the context of this mark. A chance he needs the run of course but I’d like to think he’s here to run his race. Hardy Boy shouldn’t need the run. He’s either out of form or got stuck in the mud at Worcester on return but this drying ground is in his favour. The way he won at Southwell, the form of that and various other races, suggests 108 will underestimate him at some point, he will blow this mark out the water at some point, again, hopefully today. Both will be winning more so add to your trackers whatever they do here.

1.45 – this looks a nightmare of a race to my eyes but Malystic looked overpriced I thought, second run back after a break, having run well on return last time. I think a well run stiff 2m could be ideal for him, that’s if he gets round (a niggle he could find these fences too big) – he could be another norther horse who just doesn’t have the ability when coming south but there’s enough in his form overall and I think this mark is workable. There’s more to come from him over fences somewhere and Hughes is on. He could be one for EW money.

I thought they all had questions – I like the top two, Grey Diamond and Amarillo Sky, esp the latter, but I don’t know if they’ll be fit and at 7/2, that’s enough to put me off really. If the latter is A1 he won’t be far away, he’s a great jumper of a fence with more to come this season.

2.20 – Super Six – Lad and Dad are in good form, well 2/7,3p the last 14 days and I thought this one looked overpriced – again, he’s another to note whatever he does here, he just has to have more wins in him from this mark at some point. He was 5th in the Champion Bumper of 2021 and Twister wouldn’t throw any old muck at that. They’ve clearly taken their time with him but I thought he ran well on chase debut/seasonal return last time. (he did go slightly to his right at times, something to watch) To me he looked outpaced as they upped the tempo from 3 out and he’s sure to relish this 2m4f trip. Straw Fan Jack has since franked the form. In March he beat Doctor Ken in a novice hurdle, front two miles clear. That one relished a fence also, winning well at Aintree recently on chase debut recently. He is out the handicap and maybe today isn’t the day, but he’ll do for me at the prices.

I like Unanswered Prayer’s hurdles form and overall profile. The Chris Gordon team remain in fine form, but I can’t wade in at 9/4 for a chase debutant around Cheltenham, for all he has Point experience. He’s a nice horse in the making though.

2.55 – Magic Dancer –

Adam and I had a chat about this race and I can see why he likes the Irish Raider at the prices, he’s certainly value on the place part and IF he ran as he did at Haydock in a similar race earlier in the year, would be thereabouts here for sure. It does look a race full of 3 milers which is interesting enough. He’s been running well over hurdles and should be staying on, provided he doesn't get too far back. Being race fit could be no bad thing here today either.

I thought Magic Dancer looked the most interesting of the more fancied ones for win purposes, for all hard to say 7/2 is overpriced. He’s gone well fresh, good record around here over hurdles and to a decent handicapping level, chase experience, aged 10, first Vets chase, in form when last seen. Like Ballyandy I’ve a slight niggle whether these fences may be big enough, but we shall see. I have to assume he’s here to run his race for all the yard are yet to get going properly. He could also have more tactical speed than many of these.

Trainer/Jockey (Lee/Patrick) have done well together at Jumps HQ, 5/21, 11p last 5 years, +17 SP. Kerry does do well with LTO winners also, 8/26, 14p.

3.30 – Quid Pro Quo – hmm, I’ve no strong views on this guessers race, but did think 14s looked big enough here. This is the second graded novice they’ve pitched him into and I don’t know what game JP is playing – this mark looks very workable for handicaps (maybe they want to build up his experience), but maybe they think he’s better than that. He was a bit underwhelming on return but stuck to his task and maybe he needed it. He could relish this hill. In a race where they are all unexposed and open to improvement, i just thought 14s looked big. Maybe he will get a quiet ride out the back, one to keep an eye on, he has ability.

I do like how Collectors Item won last time and he’s a bit bigger now than when I first looked. He could relish this trip and if I were track-side I’d probably back him also at 6s or so, for all having full faith in a Jonjo horse can lead to despair. He’s a grandson of Lady Rebecca. But, any of them could take this and I wouldn’t fall off my seat in shock, well, bar Pauling’s 50s shot but you never know.

4.00 –

My word. This looks impossible. Master Dancer arrives fit, in form, unexposed, didn’t do anything wrong last time, the third from that race has since hacked up. The Bandey team are in decent form, 2/7,3p last 14 days, he’s 2/8,4p with his Chelt runners and he does well with horses making handicap debut… worth noting… 4/13, 8p, +89 SP.

Mothil – maybe this will be too much for a 4YO, i’m not sure, but I really liked how he got the job done visually last time and he could well benefit from being settled off a more relentless gallop, as opposed to forcing it. I liked how he jumped and responded to pressure, and Mulholland isn’t one to run rubbish at HQ really. He must think he’s worth a go. 2/10,5p all runners around here in the last year. Plenty of his form reads ok, the 5th from LTO has since hacked up off 129. I thought he looked overpriced, but it’s a mad sort of race.

Fingers crossed this one goes as well as my last Chelt ‘through the card’ for all it looks a lot more challenging, but here’s hoping! All good fun.

GL with any bets,

Josh

p.s some of you asked about a 'monthly option' trial for my Members' Club, which I'm going to introduce in the next couple of days, so look out for that if it interests you. I may email out on Sunday with more details.

p.p.s tomorrow I plan to email out some pointers for The Paddy Power Gold Cup. There will likely be a post of sorts up later this evening, especially with Trends/shortlists, just head to this link late on, new posts top left hand corner... www.racingtoprofit.co.uk/free-reports-systems/