Hello, Friend,

I hope your week has started well. Today's email is a bit 'random', with a few notes I've lifted from today's Members' Post, including a Huntingdon 'through the card' of sorts, which if nothing else has the odd stat some of you may wish to note down for future reference.

I'm now over Enrilo's tumble, thankfully he got up. He was in the process of making 4s look rather generous. I sill can't believe he came down given how he'd been jumping and when horses move like that through a race it can be a case of how far. He'd have won that comfortably in my opinion but that's the game, at least the legend that is Frodon was able to bag another nice pot. Some horse. Lord Accord ran his race also and may have won if his jumping had been as sharp as the winner. There are clearly more 3m+ chase pots in him on decent ground, maybe back at a more galloping track. If the ground goes, it could be a case of waiting until the spring.

Onto today...

First up there are some reflections on yesterday's Novice handicap chase from Kempton. I'd flagged three horses pre race, including the winner (well bred), but you may find the notes useful.

There then follows some Huntingdon musings which were posted at 6pm last night. As always with such content, there to muse over and use as you please. 

Looking back… not sure what to make of that 1.25 Kempton – that may well have been the time to catch Dalamoi. Maybe someone out there read those musings and had a nibble at 13/2. I rarely get that yard right, certainly not on seasonal return for all that one had run well fresh. Vaughan now 5/182 with his 60+ day returners in the last 2 years. Although apparently he has other business interests these days and doesn’t do much of the training, so who knows! Anyway, that race fell apart somewhat and the form doesn’t look up to much – his hurdles form suggested a mark of 117 was workable, having been in and around horses now rated a bit higher. He couldn’t have done much more and should keep improving, including for a step up on trip. Being chased home by Quick Draw doesn’t do much for the chase substance. Evidently not one to oppose lightly on his next couple of starts though.

What of the rest? Well Dreaming Blue was unfancied and given a very gentle ride on seasonal return and chasing debut. He would have had an enjoyable experience and should come on for it plenty, his SP suggesting not fit. The market can guide from this yard. He’s flat bred but ran well, jumping out to his right at times, but plenty of small tracks /softer fences. He was outpaced off the bend and maybe he will be worth a go over 3m at some point, or a stiffer 2m5f. Maybe back to Fontwell given his hurdles form there. He could go close on his next couple of starts if well placed, another novice hncp.

The others ran no sort of race at all really, hard to know what to make of their efforts and a few sets of connections will be scratching their heads. City Derby ran ok to a point before walking through the last down the back, which appeared to do for him. A chance he found that ground too deep, it ‘looked’ a lot softer than advertised. His hurdles win was at Southwell on good, and he’s entitled to drop down into a Class 5 – one to keep an eye on. He jumped well enough in the main.

Tommy Tracey had a 2nd in a Point to his name and had an ok run at Ascot to his name, along with two duds. He was never at the races here. It may be worth noting that Paul Webber is 1/85 in the last 365 days – not stats that would fill you with confidence. I’m not sure he’s the greatest of trainers these days anyway, for all no one is without the ammo, but maybe they’re all sick.

Blackcauseway – the 100k spent on him at the moment isn’t looking the best of value buys (plenty of these, you only hear about the success stories) – a reason I don’t like spending much more than 15k at the moment with our Syndicate horses – spending big money is no guarantee of success, even for point winners.

However, it’s early days. He ran ok to a point before falling in a hole, stopping very quickly as if amiss. It could be that he just isn’t that good (rated 108 here) and found this pace too hot too handle – even more so if he actually wants 3 miles. Looking back through his form, his two PUs have now come when racing right-handed. His point win was left-handed, his last three ok hurdle efforts at Southwell, Warwick and Uttoxeter. Maybe he just hates going RH. Possible.

Worth keeping an eye on for if/when he goes LH, possibly up in trip, and dropped into a 0-110, or an even worse race. Connections will have been dreaming of Cheltenham. They may have to make do with a Southwell.

Anyway, maybe not a race to get excited about but I suspect the odd chase winner will come from it in time, at a lowly level.

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Huntingdon ‘through the card’

For some reason, and unprompted, I’ve decided to muse over Huntingdon’s card. The racing on Tuesday is generally desperate. All the usual caveats with the below (I miss plenty when spending less than 5 mins per race, but sometimes it goes well) and I’ve tried to flag something of interest even if I’m wide of the mark…

13.07 – My Little Tony – 7/1

I was going for Henry Daly’s Minniemum here but having checked the market, this one at 7s makes more sense, if track side, or if very bored and after some fun with a muggy afternoon multiple and the like! She sets an ok standard on what she’s done, for all moderate enough. But this is a moderate race. At least she can jump, gallop, knows how to win and arrives fit and in form. That may be enough. I sort of think she’s open to attack but I’m not sure from what. Daly’s is jumps bred and ran ok in her NHF races, hurdles could be the making of her. Maybe 4s will look big but who knows if fit or how she will jump. I may regret changing my mind. Said Paul Webber, mentioned above, has an Evens money fav here – no doubt after my dismissal of the handler she’ll now bolt up! Anyway, My Little Tony looks a big price here, but its an atrocious race and something may step forward out of nowhere.

1.37 – Thundersockssundae – 4/6

He’ll be a short price no doubt but he could win this as he likes again. In any case, those of you who like a stat/micro, can note the following…

Fergal / Paddy / Huntingdon / All runners/ 5 years –

40 bets / 14 wins / 25p / 35% / +11 SP

2.07 – Onefortheroad – 11/4 (now a NR)

This one and Skelton’s could be fighting this out. I suppose the jolly is more unexposed but there could be more to come from this one as a hurdler, for all aged 7. He ran well at Aintree on his return over further, tiring from two out as if needing it. He drops in trip here, drops in class and Jack will no doubt have him plenty handy enough. He has some solid Graded handicap form to his name last season and sets the handicapping standard in this. He really shouldn’t be far away at this level.

Do note… Neil King at Hunt in the last year, all runners: 5/19, 8p, +36

When Jack is on: 3/12, 5p +35

2.37 – Ornua – 14/1+

Hmm.. this is a ‘tipping’ race, being a C3+, 3m+ handicap chase… it’s an awful awful race and I’m not exactly banging them in at the moment. I’m not sure I can bring myself to wade into this with an ‘official tip’, however if track-side I would have change on this one for interest. He was half decent for De-Bromhead but as soon as he left the yard, having been running ok, the wheels fell off. However – the run at Warwick in May was solid enough, not beaten far, keeping on having led and then headed. I’m not sure what happened after that but last time was his first start after a wind-op, maybe he will be transformed here. His run last time was his first in 118 days and maybe he badly needed it. That good Warwick run was second run back after a break, having tailed off the run before also. So, who knows.

The other thing of interest was that they put 1st blinkers on and he steps up to 3m for the first time ever, at a more galloping track. Maybe now aged 11, his legs moving slower, this is what he now wants and is the reason for an improved showing. He may not stay of course. Maybe the blinkers will work wonders. He will race prominently, jumps well, and running in a Vets race for the first time I think. IF it were to click he’s chucked in. Le Breuil is 4/6 on seasonal return and maybe he’ll just outclass them, for all he’s a bit of a boat and doesn’t like winning that often either. But this won’t take much winning. Anyway, we shall see. Ornua could easily be tailed off as they turn for home. But there is something there of mild interest, but only that. He could just be gone at the game but if he is going to show anything for these connections, it could be today. The trainer has yet to train a chase winner under rules, now 0/67, 5p, which doesn’t fill you with confidence. I won't 'tip' him, for all I know what happens now, but he would get the track-side £2-5 given the prices of the others.

3.07 – Say Nothing – 9/2

I’m hoping he tries to make all here. He’s fit, in form after LTO and drops in class. He was going to win a few starts back when coming down at the last. This is a truly awful race but he’s the one I want to be with. If he runs his race he really won’t be far away against this muck.

Of some mild stats interest…

A Hales / K Woods / 6YO handicappers : 9/33, 15p, +64 SP 

(he is a trainer who likes more slow maturing types generally I think)

3.37 – Hmmm

A guessers race really, only bet if you must or you’ve a gun to your head. Still…

Treacle – 40s+ so probably useless but do note that trainer A West is in form, 2/10,3p in last 14 days. Of more interest, for all maybe not with this horse (could grab a place…) …

Adam West / Lee Edwards/ all rides: 11/39, 15p in last year, +41

Femme Patronne – Flat trainer Karl Burke has a rare jumps runner here. The yard are in form and worth noting that in NHF races in the last 5 years… 2/5,4p. Interesting.

Petite Souris – Stuart Edmunds is in form and generally does well at the track (although more so with his hurdlers, 12/49, 30p, +28).. the yard 3/12, 7p last 14 days, 64% rivals beaten. That may count for something.

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Anyway, something to read there and muse over or ignore as you please.

GL with any bets, Josh