Good Morning, Friend
I wasn't planning on emailing out today but resident pro-punter Adam Norman has posted a comment on the blog with some musings on today's Worcester card that I thought you may find interesting. He hasn't officially tipped anything today, but there are a handful of chasers to note...
Before that...
If you missed my Jumps Stats 'Bible', you can READ IT HERE >>>
A decent winner for Red Happy yesterday, getting my 3m+ chase tips off the mark for the season proper (now 1/7,2p since Chepstow) and adding to the strong start for the 'staying chase' angles, now 3/6,5p, +5.75 (no qualifiers today) He made 11/4 look good value in that four runner race, out-jumping and out-staying his rivals.
So, do download, read and digest that report above, it will flag winners in the months ahead.
Also, if you missed Adam's 'racing round-up' from recent trips to Wetherby, Carlisle and Market Rasen, you can read it HERE >>>
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Now, over to Adam with some thoughts for the day, copied from the comments on today's members' post... invaluable insight you won't find elsewhere...
"Worcester hosts a cracking card today but it’s one to watch rather than get too heavily involved with betting-wise, as there are so many unexposed hurdlers on show as well as a bumper that will be very informative.
In the 1.30 Autonomous Cloud was looking like being a bet should he be available at 4/1 or bigger this morning but he’s what I call a ‘sexy’ horse in that he’d have been quite well touted in ‘horses to follow’ books and has been tipped in various places that attract attention.
Time may tell the 10/3 on offer was fair value as he’s a very nice looking chaser in the making and really his three spins over timber were purely for education purposes. A 110k purchase as a store, he really took the eye as one to look out for over fences when I saw him at Wetherby last season and he should be capable of running to a mark of 125 on this chasing debut, which would see him just about win from his opening rating of 116.
Other than price, the ground would be a concern if it lacked much give but the step up in trip should suit and I do think he’s the most likely winner.
However, there are some experienced chasers in here not least Sam Burton, who was still weak and backward physically last term so it didn’t surprise me that his form didn’t improve, his jumping often being an issue. If he’s strengthened up and if he jumps better he’d be well enough handicapped to win, but too many ifs for me.
I wanted to oppose Easkey Lad in this grade and Kayf Hernando may lack a little size/scope for fences, so Fergal’s second string Barrakhov was interesting until his odds started to fall.
He’s another chaser on looks, big and strong, but doesn’t look entirely straight forward. Chasing could make a man of him but he could just be rather modest, so on balance I wanted a double figure price.
Not sure why Liam Harrison hasn’t been riding much this summer – I wonder if they’ve been protecting his claim for the better horses as he’s a top jock in the making and the 3lb is terrific value.
So a good race, but one I’ll reluctantly sit out unless I get my 4/1 Autonomous Cloud.
The 2.05 is another interesting handicap chase and the one that kept drawing my eye was Courtland, a horse I really liked as a long term prospect before they let the cat out of the bag by sending him over fences a couple of summers back, when he looked a transformed character.
Clearly an injury has kept him off games and I wonder what they have lined up for him this season. I suspect inexperience will play it’s part today but if he’s close to peak fitness I can see him go well, more likely is that he’ll run a sound race before fading out of things. But he’s a nice horse worth keeping an eye on.
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All the best,
Josh
