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The Betfair Hurdle

Below you can find a guest preview from Snowy, but first my own trends shortlist for the race. I won't repeat the trends but there were a few 14/14 stats which IF upholding, always an if of course, would point to just four...

Iberico Lord, Altobelli, Brentford Hope, Kamsinas

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Guest Race Preview...

ATURDAY SIZZLER: 2 Each Way Bets Against The Field In The Betfair Hurdle
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I'm going to take this opportunity to take a look at NEWBURY'S £155,000, Class 1, Betfair Handicap Hurdle (2m), which is due off at 3:15 on Saturday. The ground has already gone Heavy, but the meeting is safe and racing should go ahead as planned.

The Stats Approach

What about this year's ultra competitive renewal? Here's a few stats for you to consider first (if that's your thing).

The race is generally considered a good one for 2nd season novices, the type that are mostly unexposed and thought to be on the up. In fact since the race was established back in 1963, apart from Neblin in 1987, King Credo in 1993 (both aged 8) and Geos in 2004 (9yo), every winner has been aged 5, 6 or 7.

With that in mind, perhaps Faivoir (9yo), Kniockerbockerglory (8), Doddiethegreat (8), Go Dante (8) and Onlyamatteroftime (8) all face tricky enough tasks.

There are no previous winners here but a few horses have won 2 in the past (Geos 2000/04, Rosyth 1963/64).

The biggest weight carrying efforts in recent times (11st8lb) came in 2019 and 2022, but on those occasions the ground was only good to soft, only the great Persian War has bettered that, his 11st13lb in 1968 still stands way ahead these days. He won the Champion Hurdle next time.

On the expected heavy ground this year, things could prove a little too tough for those Numbered 1 down to 9 (1- Luccia 12st, 9- Iberico Lord 11st8lb and those in between), but stats and records are there to be broken, who's to say none of those can win!

When the going gets tough though, every extra pound carried is harder to do. Of those up there, Lookaway (11/11) and Iberico Lord (11/8) appeal the most, Iberico Lord is trained by Nicky Henderson who always targets this race and with 5 previous winners, is I believe the winning most trainer in this. He saddles 3 others, Luccia, Under Control and Doddiethegreat (8yo, 11/6), but may have his work cut out making this number 6.

With 3 winners in the last 10 years (2014/17/19), Nigel Twiston-Davies likes to target this race as well, he has 2 runners this time, Norman Fletcher (5yo, 11st) and Moveit Like Minnie (7yo 10/12 minus 5lb claim), I wouldn't be surprised if either were to run very well.

Paul Nicholls (won this twice) saddles 0 which is surprising, but 3 time winner Gary Moore  is having a go once again. He has 2 in the shape of Spirit D'Aunou who I'd like but has a big weight (11/13, minus 3lb claim) and the very quirky 6yo Yorksea (10/11) who's refused to race the last 2 times.

Dan Skelton always targets these big 2m H'cap Hurdles, but he's yet to win this race and is trying with 3 horses this year, but Faivoir and Knickerbockerglory may just have a bit too much weight and if you're going to back his other runner L'eau De Sud (6yo, 11/3, chosen by stable jockey Harry Skelton), you have to forgive him a very poor first run at Cheltenham last time (pulled up Nov). He has a chance on his best form, but I backed him that day and I'd rather look elsewhere for a play.

The Irish havent won it since 2005 (Essex) with Spirit Leader another winner for them in 2003 but you have to go back to the 1970's for any previous winner prior to them. I won't say the Irish might struggle this year, as we all know, they are winning almost every race that they bring horses for over here.

Surprisingly, Willie Mullins has not won this, but he gone close in recent times. He has 3 entries, Alvainy and Onlyamatteroftime (number 25) who I've already mentioned and have just slim chances, but he saddles the very interesting and unexposed 5yo Oscastle Des Mottes (11st7). He has yet to race even in Ireland and is apparently taking this race in on his way over from his native France. He is very lightly raced and almost impossible to assess, hence why bookmakers are making him a short enough priced fav (11/2).

Views and Verdict

There should be plenty of pace from the outset, as a number of these like to run from the front. I'm therefore taking a chance with 2 hold up horses, who if they hurdle well and avoid trouble in running, could pose a threat when the race comes to a boil in the last half a mile. Both have form on very soft ground and one has won on heavy ground as well. They both carry 11st6lb, a little less would suit ideally, but the top 17 are carrying 11st or more anyway.

ALTOBELLI (6yo) looks to have the talent to win this and AURIGNY MILL (7yo) seems to be improving at a good rate of knots. Both have been known to race a little keenly, so a solid pace should suit both perfectly.

ALTOBELLI is very lightly raced (6 races, 3 wins) and may just lack a little experience possibly, but he showed plenty of talent when winning a Bumper and 2 Novice Hurdles last season and he's ran with real credit in both Handicaps at Ascot this term. His 2nd (of 12) to Knickerbockerglory was a fine start to his handicapping career in November (soft ground) and arguably, in better company, he may have bettered that when 3rd there last time, he finished on the heels of Luccia, when the good ground was possibly a little too lively for him.

AURIGNY MILL was just an average Novice Hurdler last term, but he won 1 of his 4 races back then and showed promise in each and every outing over hurdles besides, he has taken his form to a different level though winning 2 handicaps this term and despite climbing up 16lb in the ratings for those 2 wins, he could still have plenty of improvement to come. He bolted up 2 starts back on heavy at Wincanton and trounced his rivals at Kempton last time on soft, a strong gallop seemed to suit in those races and he showed a good turn of foot both times. He is worth his chance in this better company and makes plenty of appeal e/w.

If I had another pick, I would risk the quirky Onlyamatteroftime at 12-16/1 but two bets is enough here.

Philip ‘Snowy’ Griffiths

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Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.

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Good Luck with any bets,

Josh