Good Morning, Friend
+151 Points Profit & a Beverley Winner?
I hope you're having a great week so far and that you've been able to enjoy the sunshine.
Before I get onto a couple of Beverley fancies...
Big Race Results...
I've just had a look back to start of Chelt Festival, and my record in all 'big race trends' races, ie those races I've researched trends/shortlist, and 'tipped' in....
73 bets/10 wins /26p (inc wins) /+75.5 points(1pt win) /+151 points (2 pt win) / 13.69% wsr / 35% w|p sr / 96%/192% ROI /
+£1510 to £10 bets... i'll take it! :)
These stats include another mediocre Aintree, 0/13, 3p (Go Dante should have saved me!), for all was +25 year before I think, but I go all three days, don't put the work in I should and generally get what I deserve! Chelt and Ascot (+80.5 between them this year) I'm chained to my desk. Think I'll go very light touch next years Aintree meeting.
Anyway, it's probably clear where I should focus! My big race trends and attacking said races properly. Obviously a 13.6% win sr does mean some painful losing runs at times but that is the nature of the big field/big race beast. Long term profit is all I really care about.
That's all with a clear head and without the daily grind and loading up my effort to the back end of the week. Maybe there's something in that also!
The Great St Wilfred from Ripon is the next such 'trends' handicap and I'll be pulling those trends together this afternoon. I'll likely email out at some point tomorrow, but do head to the blog.
I'll post them in the FREE 'telegram' group also, including any 'selections'. Some members have been having a fine run of posting winners, and indeed successful 'lays' - there are some shrewdies amongst you!
Don't forget, you can jump into the free RTP Community Chat Group HERE >>>
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Onto today...
A couple of pokes today... in 3.45 Beverley
Refuge - 6/1
Let's Go Hugo - 11/2
*Prices as of 8.18am when posted in Telegram
Preference for Refuge staking wise, will see if I've got that right...
Notes...
Pace/map was my 'way in', using the excellent Geegeez Gold>>>, Sparkling Red likes to go forward and may tow them along, could be dangerous if left alone but recent profile suggests will fade.
Refuge looks likely to bounce out from low draw, grab far rail and track said pace, before hopefully being in prime spot to pounce. Won CD 22nd July GF off 5lb lower, 63 here, last season won off 70 (under claimer), and 66 (no claim). If returning to best should be thereabouts, price looked fair.
Hamilton only 2 days ago, always chance runs flat, but he's won twice <7 days for all never this quick a return, however, didn't have a hard race at Ham, coasted home last 2f. He did far too much on front end, 3 of them went at it, inexp jockey never looked balanced, ground poss too soft, but also ran without Tongue tie for some reason, for first time since Oct 20, has never won without it. Returns here.
Jo Mason on, she's good, riding well, and for her Uncle/cousin, is 13/51, 24p, +35 on all handicappers around Beverley.
Looked worth a play given all that and in a race where plenty have questions on paper /recent form/ draw/ ground etc
Let's Go Hugo - will bolt up again it/ when breaking a bit better and if/when getting the breaks. He's a risky one as could get stuck behind a wall, Mark Win takes over and good value for his 3lb. Handicapped to be thereabouts, class fine. I think last 2 races solid enough and form of Ponty race 2 starts ago is arguably strongest on offer as in and around 3 subsequent winners and a few at C5. Consistent and in form at the moment. First start here, this stiff 5f should help him, stall 6 OK, hopefully he can get out and track pace but maybe they'll go too hard. Suspect will need gaps, in part hence why more on Refuge, but if he runs as has last twice he will be storming home late.
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Fingers crossed one of those gets the job done!
Thanks for reading,
All the best,
Josh
