Good Morning, Friend

Yesterday proved a waste of a morning, my pick a NR about 5 minutes after the email landed. Oddly, having been pulled out on account of softer going (good to soft/soft in places), he's running in the 1.45 Lingfield in a bog, in what looks a more competitive race to my eyes, well, down in class but three 'unexposed' chasers ahead of him, inc two fit, easy LTO winners. An odd move, unless he's pulled out again. Maybe he'll have me cursing but I've left him today, I thought he was better RH also!

Onto today, I've two more today down below, hopefully they can run well.

You can find today's post, including the usual 'stats starting points' etc, HERE >>>

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Today’s Tips & Notes

x2 from me today, the first from the stats above, the other with my ‘3m chase eyes’…

2.00 Taunt- Moodofthemoment – 10/3

2.45 Muss – Kandor – 7/1

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Moodofthemoment – i thought he looked a shade overpriced against the fav here, as he also appears progressive, arrives in superb form, some of his races working out well, and there’s every chance he improves again for this step up to 3m. Of course, he has to prove he stays, but he’s run the last twice over 2m5f as if he’d enjoy it, having been under the pump early enough, staying on strongly. If you run well around Hereford, on paper you should be fine around Taunton, and there’s no doubt more to come. Matt Sheppard is in fine form, 6/16,11p +13 in last 30 days, and does well with LTO winners, 10/24,14p +11 in last 2 years. He’s in-form with Richard Patrick also (who rides this course well), 2/5,4p in last 30 days. Matt can’t use his son Stan, who’s stable jockey for Tom Lacey/on the fav, but I’m sure he won’t mind losing to one of his dad’s! He’s a sound jumper with a bit more chase experience than the fav and I thought that may win it for him…

Maybe the fav does me, entitled to improve again of course, but he hasn’t looked the most natural of chasers as yet, lobbing along at his own pace last time, and he should have a race on here as they head for home, and I’m intrigued to see how he jumps when really under the pump. He didn’t jump well at Wetherby, and was scratchy at times LTO. I could have that wrong, he improves again and bounds away, but it was my reason for opposing at the prices, we’ll see if I’m right. These two have fitness and chase experience over the others in this, for all the odd interesting one, and I thought that would count for plenty today.

Kandor – I couldn’t work out why he was so big here, and he has been weak enough this morning. I’d like him to hold his price and get nibbled at if anything, we’ll see as the race draws nearer. Lucinda has her team in decent form, 6/23,8p in last 14 days, and she does well with her stable #1 around here, 7/24,11p +20 together in the last year. In the last 2 years they’re 7/17,9p +20 together around here in all handicap chases, 2/7,3p over this CD. The horse…well he’s unexposed as a chaser and I think will leave this mark behind at some point. He was 2nd in an Irish Point, to what is now a Rebecca Curtis horse who won a Chepstow maiden hurdle in Oct impressively. His novice hurdle form reads very well to my eyes, especially his Perth win and Kelso 2nd, behind a 130 horse who’d win a C2 novice at Cheltenham when last seen. He wasn’t very good at Hexham on handicap hurdle debut, ground maybe too soft, had a wind op not long after. He returned on chase debut when last seen, jumping well generally, but out to his right, when maybe then distracted by a horse in front of him, diving at it and hitting the deck – to my eyes it was a soft enough fall onto his side and he was straight back up. There’s a chance he needs to go right-handed, and he also steps up to 3m, which could unlock plenty more – this slower tempo could help also. Derek jumps on for the first time in a few starts, and he’s the one I wanted onside. It could be he gets a quiet ‘confidence boosting’ ride, that’s the risk, built into the prices for me. There’s bundles to come from him as a chaser, on better ground (which he gets here), hopefully starting today!

Of the rest…well, Wild Side of Life is the other unexposed chaser here and he’s halved in price this morning. I pondered at 6s also, but thought chase debut, stamina to prove, and on first run of the season after some time off, posed enough questions. However, he has some point exp, some of his novice hurdle runs were decent, and you’d fancy him to leave this mark behind over fences at some stage. They haven’t bothered ruining it in handicap hurdles. The market suggests he’s ready, we shall see. No doubt I’ve picked the wrong one of two! Lucinda’s novice form, and indeed Point form, is the best on show, but now we go chasing. Wild Side of Life will win chases, I hope not here, but the market suggests he may give me a headache.

I didn’t like the rest, more on th exposed end, all with various questions and they were not for me at the odds and if one beats me, so be it, I wasn’t getting near today.

GL with any bets as always.

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FREE TIPPING COMP...

I may run one again on Sat, possibly with £25 to the winner, I've only so many £50s to throw around on what is still a free blog, for now. And a tax bill to pay! Urgh. It is something I'll look to do every week for those who become members again, when the time comes. (probably next week, but always plenty of free snippets of course)

It will focus on the ITV races, possibly all x5 handicaps being aired, x4 from Newbury and x1 from Newcastle, so do get studying! All good fun and we had over 160 entries last week. I will put up Saturday's post at some point on Friday.

All the best,

Josh

p.s find today's blog post HERE >>>