Good Afternoon, Friend

I've an 8/1 poke down below from my 'stats starting points' list, which you can find on the blog, along with three Nov Qualifiers HERE >>>

Before I get onto that, don't forget to grab your free 'Trainer Track Stats' report from Matt over at Geegeez. You can find that HERE >>>

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Today’s Tips & Notes

One from me today from my stats starting points...

2pm Hereford – Airtothethrone – 8/1 – each-way 4p (x6 major bookies)

The selection represents an in-form team, trainer/stable-jockey 2/6, 3p+ 9 in the prev 14 days. They’re 1/7,2p together in CD handicap chases and can hopefully add another here. The horse made a pleasing return at Chepstow, travelling well until 4 out, before getting a bit tired and jumping markedly to his right, but he ran on and held his position in 4th, the front 3 clear. I liked how he moved through it. He is best going RH, 1/6,3p over fences this way round (0/7,2p LH), is generally consistent as a chaser for this level, usually races prominently, won’t mind the rain, Alan is back on, and he should keep galloping. IF he runs to his best, he can’t be out the four here and i’d expect him to go well. Plenty of his form has a solid look to it, often in races which have produced numerous subsequent winners, and a few times behind horses rated much higher. He looked liked the winner at Linfield last season when coming down 2 out. He has form around Taunton, inc his win, so tighter RH tracks hold no fears and he may appreciate the extra yardage here. Hopefully he can jump off prominently and hold his position. He really should be mixing it against these off this mark, at his best.

It’s an interesting little race, Ultra Beat could go well on second chase start for all I found his mark/form hard to weigh up, he has been inconsistent previously (but maybe due to being raw/not a hurdler), including a PU around here. It can happen quickly at this track and I wondered if he may lose his pitch again – I could be wrong there, but he didn’t look overpriced. Daly is flying and does well here, Bass is now riding plenty of winners as a freelance and is a jockey to keep on the right side of generally (looking at his rides not a bad ‘way in’ now, 10 winners from last 50 rides, decent profit). Venetia’s may go well but I did wonder if wanted a proper bog, which I’m not sure this will be, to help slow it all down. If he holds a position with ease he should be running on at the end, for all stamina to prove in a properly run contest for me. I looked at Shot Boii but he’s 0/13,4p when rated above OR100, which put me off, for all some decent placed efforts and maybe 105 is in range, aged only 7 and with Harry C on (Jack Tudor having been sent to Wetherby for multiple winner Chemical Warfare, but Harry is 4/11 for Pipe). The visor is back on and he will be trying his best from the front end. I wanted to oppose Harry’s Hope, up in class, softer ground, and with her usual hold up style, which is hard to pull off around here. Faded Fantasy is 1/24 in career, up in class, q over softer, and with a 7lb claimer on – I thought looked short but unexposed as a chaser.

So, we shall see. Hopefully Airtothethrone can add to his one chase win, in what looks like ideal conditions, with a run under his belt, yard going well. I thought 8s looked generous enough in a race where most have some sort of question in conditions, and with an extra place up for grabs.

Good luck with any bets, Josh