Subject: El Niño is Coming Back

How Do You Prepare With Your Bees?

El Niño is coming back into the conversation—but beekeepers should plan, not panic

Current climate reporting points towards a possible strengthening El Niño during South Africa’s 2026/27 summer-rainfall season.


Agricultural economists disagree over how damaging it may become.

The cautious case is that parts of Southern Africa face an elevated drought risk. The more optimistic case is that South Africa enters the coming planting season with stronger soil moisture, dam levels, grazing and grain stocks following prolonged rainfall through the previous season.


For beekeepers, rainfall totals alone do not determine the result.


The critical issues will be:

  • When rain arrives

  • Whether follow-up rainfall occurs

  • Temperatures during flowering

  • The condition of nectar-producing vegetation

  • Whether crops establish successfully

  • Whether drought reduces flower duration

  • Whether farmers increase chemical interventions under crop stress

A wet beginning followed by a severe dry period can still reduce nectar flow.


A season with adequate total rainfall can also produce poor honey conditions when rain falls at the wrong stage, cold fronts suppress flight or flowering becomes fragmented.

Bee Ware interpretation*

There is no justification for declaring a national beekeeping drought emergency now.


There is, however, enough warning for commercial operators to:

  • Map reliable water sources

  • Review historically drought-resilient apiaries

  • Avoid overstocking uncertain forage

  • Track regional flowering rather than relying on calendar dates

  • Discuss crop expectations with farmers before moving colonies

  • Budget for higher feeding and transport risk

  • Strengthen colonies while forage remains available

  • Ensure you set up water stations with pebbles, marbles or similar

  • Honeybees prefer slightly saline, sun-warmed water.

Bee Ware Editorial Commentary | Opinion:


There's a lot of climate change charged arguments for both sides, for and against.

Climate discussion often presents estimates as settled measurements. The frequently quoted pre-industrial CO₂ level of 278 ppm was not recorded in 1750; it was reconstructed decades later from Antarctic ice cores, with an estimated value of 278.3 ± 2.9 ppm.

Direct atmospheric measurements began only in 1957–58. Those records confirm that CO₂ is increasing, but they also show that vegetation, soils and oceans absorb a substantial share of human emissions, while increased CO₂ has contributed to measurable global greening.


El Niño is likewise a natural, recurring climate cycle—not proof by itself of permanent climate change. For beekeepers, the useful question is not which political argument wins, but what is actually happening in the field: when rain arrives, whether follow-up rain occurs, temperatures during flowering and whether plants produce nectar.


We should monitor long-term trends seriously, but we should be equally cautious about blaming every drought, storm or poor honey season on climate change.


Good beekeeping begins with observation, measured evidence and preparation—not alarm.


Specific Interest to Note:

Instrument records show warming since 1931, exceeding 2°C per century in some western, northern and eastern regions of South Africa. That is a regional rate, not a uniform national figure. South African National Climate Change Information System.


What's your plan?


This is a personal opinion commentary following hours of review and reading findings from across the globe sourced from various sources as listed below.


Sources:
Scripps direct atmospheric record
NOAA’s Law Dome archive

IPCC explanation and underlying references
Berkeley Earth history and methodology
IPCC assessment of extreme events

South African National Climate Change Information System

NASA greening observations

Honeybees prefer slightly saline, sun-warmed water.

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