Subject: Treasury Is Correct

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Tavakoli Structured Finance LLC
Allow me to issue and control a nation’s money, and I care not who makes the laws.”
Mayer Amschel Rothschild
Treasury Is Correct

Ha! I’m wrong.
 
The May 2022 reset applies, because the bonds reset in October, prior to the November calculation.
 
The November reset will apply to April’s reset.
Who do you believe: Janet Tavakoli or the U.S. Treasury?

March 2, 2023

People can directly trade T-Bills, Treasury Bonds, TIPs, and savings bonds on the Treasury Direct web site. It’s vital that Treasury get the calculations correct.
 
I was using the Treasury Direct savings bond calculator for an old IAAA I-bond issued 04/2004. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice
 
The calculator’s interest rate was wrong for this issue. It showed the previous reset of 10.77%. (See screen shot below) I checked another issue and it was correct. I don’t know how deep this goes, but there shouldn’t be any mistakes at all. What’s more, the mistake shows up in my account, too. It is in my favor, not the Treasury’s.
 
Here’s the composite calculation. It’s straightforward, and the inputs and answer are included in Treasury Direct’s chart: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/files/savings-bonds/i-bond-rate-chart.pdf [Expand this.]
 
Fixed rate = 1.1%; Semiannual for this bond issued 04/2004.
(1/2) year inflation rate: 3.24% per the bottom of the chart.
 
Note that Treasury rounds these calculations to four decimals before converting to percentages.
 
Composite rate formula is [0.0110 + (2 x 0.0324) + (0.0110 x 0.0324)] = 0.076156 round to 7.62% [Agrees with the chart.]

If I'm correct, and I believe I am, then I have to ask how this could be allowed to happen. If I worked at the U.S. Treasury, I'd be spot sampling everything and checking calculations.
New Cover, Same Feb 2022 Book
3rd Edition

Released February 23, 2022

"Tavakoli's research work has been endorsed by, for example, the late Nobel prize winner, Merton Miller, and the "Big Short" hedge fund manager, Michael Burry."

Intelligent Commodity Investing

Via Reddit: Reconstructing Burry's Research Process

Michael Burry, Interview by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission,May 18, 2010/

From FCIC staff audiotape of interview with Michael Burry, Cornwall Capital[between timestamps 1:36:20 and 1:38:40]:

" ... It was a dark market. I was onto WorldCom pretty early and they went from investment grade to bankrupt overnight ... I wondered why I didn't make more money on this ... it hit me that's the way to short companies ... and I noted there was a lot of these highly rated super leveraged companies where you could buy credit default swaps ... and so I bought books ... Janet Tavakoli's 1998 book, and that was the first book I read ... I didn't take all those equations and apply them ... but I got the basics of the market from that."
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