| View this email online if it doesn't display correctly |
| | Tavakoli Structured
Finance, Inc. |
| | "Of
course, there is still much work to be done. That means honestly confronting
the crisis of Islamic extremism and the Islamists and Islamic terror of all
kinds." -- President Trump in Riyadh
"Where are you headed, Europe? Rise from your knees
and from your lethargy, or you will be crying over your children every
day." -- Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo
|
| | Hedge Funds: A Short
First do the credit analysis—then get in early when carry is lowest.
If you’re going to use credit derivatives to short an index, there’s no substitute for doing the credit analysis of the underlying loans. In fact, you may prefer to simply short one or two names in the index. But it seems that many enter into trades on the basis of a good story without regard to timing or alternative sources of cash for borrowers.
Hedge Funds Burned by Short Trade as America’s Malls Refuse to Die
Jeremy Hill, Bloomberg, October 2, 2018
“I think a lot of people bought the theory or the story of why they might want to short this index because of ‘The Big Short,’” said Janet Tavakoli, president of risk consulting firm Tavakoli Structured Finance. “But the execution of it is always more difficult."
End of Excerp
You may have noticed that many bold face names are managing less money in hedge fund land: "The Incredible Shrinking Hedge Fund" by Katherine Burton, Melissa Karsh and Sam Dodge, Bloomberg, September 11, 2018 | Updated: September 24, 2018. |
| | Wall Street’s New Alphabet Soup (Sept 29, 2018)
Last week, these were the most dangerous words in the English language for Christine Blasey Ford:
“Good morning Dr. Ford. We haven’t met. My name is Rachel Mitchell.”
In her responses to Mitchell’s questioning before the US Senate’s Judicial Committee, Ford was oblivious to the fact that she admitted to fabricating part of her accusation against Judge Brett Kavanaugh and thus admitted to perjury. MSM didn’t report that, so you might have missed it. Here’s a key moment via video wherein Mitchell skillfully stitched up Ford.
That wasn’t the only moment, either. Remember this: if a lawyer flatters you during an interview, it is a set up. Mitchell flattered Ford on her previously displayed expertise. (Mitchell was showing off, talking about the neurobiological effects of trauma. This was an unforced error on Ford’s part.) Ford basked in the flattery until Mitchell continued with questions. As the narrator of the previously linked video put it:
“[Ford] is a psychotherapist…she claims she doesn’t know about victims and memories and the best way to get information from them, nor does she know about polygraphs and the psychology behind that…There’s only so much B.S. I want to watch.”
That is exactly the reaction Mitchell was going for.
BTW, the narrator of the video is incorrect about something. As I mentioned earlier, Mitchell trapped Ford into admitting she fabricated part of the story. (It doesn’t matter how much Ford tried to downplay it.)
Given more time, Mitchell would have asked her why she went upstairs to use a bathroom, whether and how Ford could tell no one else was in any other room upstairs. After Ford was behind a closed door in a bathroom, how could she tell exactly who was going down stairs, and how could Ford be sure who was laughing, and so on. Mitchell would keep at it.
Ford’s lawyers should have stopped this train wreck for Ford right after her testimony, but it seems to me they are merely Ford’s handlers. They have asked for an FBI investigation, which is not in Ford’s best interests, since the FBI might recommend pressing charges against Ford. Ford is on the record with one perjury, having admitted to fabricating part of her story, which she previously testified was accurate.
Now the FBI can dig into everything she said, including her studies, teaching, and research which may provide evidence that she knows about interviewing trauma victims and how polygraphs work, yet lied about that, too, among many other things.
Ford’s sponsors won’t be there to help her when the FBI gives her a thorough interview. By the time the FBI is done, Ford may have to cut a deal and eat her the alphabet soup that she cooked herself.
Meanwhile, Democrats will scour the USA for another “credible” witness to accuse Judge Kavanaugh of a sex crime. |
| | Influence, Mind Control, and Rhetological Fallacies
In my novel, Archangels, a
targeted PSYOP is used against the protagonist.These techniques are surprisingly
effective in practice.
Today marks the first release of the large print edition of Archangels for the
minority of people who prefer that format. It conforms to N.A.V.H. standards, except
the spine isn’t as flexible. But one can bend it back to lay flat, if desired. |
| | Citi Resurrects Synthetic CDOs, Bane of the Credit Crisis
Sridhar Natarajan, Dakin Campbell and Alastair Marsh of Bloomberg authored an excellent take on Citi's claims (September 26, 2017) "Citi is Bringing Back One of the Most Infamous Bests of the Credit Crisis." The bottom line is that the risk is mispriced. Oh, but Citi claims this structure is safer.
Here's an excerpt:
“There is a whole generation
of people in finance who never knew or forgot what the problems were with synthetic CDOs,” said Janet Tavakoli, a 30-year veteran of the financial markets who runs a consulting firm and has written books on structured credit and CDOs. “Just as derivatives can lever up the upside, they can lever up the downside.” |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
