The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 0.8% in March to $318.9 billion, following a 1.2% decrease in February. The increase was led by computers and electronic products, which jumped $1.0 billion (3.7%) to $29.6 billion. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.9%, while orders for transportation equipment rose 0.8% to $106.7 billion, despite a 21.1% drop in nondefense aircraft and parts. Other categories showed modest gains, including machinery (0.8%) and fabricated metal products (0.2%). Total shipments increased 0.7% to $322.2 billion, while unfilled orders rose 0.1% to $1.54 trillion and inventories edged up 0.2% to $596.9 billion. Core capital goods orders (nondefense, excluding aircraft) increased 3.3% to $82.9 billion, with shipments up 1.2% to $80.8 billion, suggesting renewed strength in business investment.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it is maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, though the decision showed a divide with an 8-4 vote, with one member favoring an immediate cut and three opposing the statement's continued easing bias. In its policy statement, the Committee noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, but job gains remain low and inflation stays elevated, partly driven by spikes in global energy prices. At his final post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell addressed the internal divisions by emphasizing that despite the hawkish dissenters and sticky inflation data, raising rates is currently off the table. He emphasized that the underlying economy is strong enough to weather price bumps, leaving the Fed well-positioned to adjust policy meeting-by-meeting as the data evolves.

The Commerce Department’s initial estimate for first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.0%, an acceleration from 0.5% in Q4 ‘25. Growth was supported by consumer spending and a pickup in investment, which contributed approximately 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points (pp), respectively, driven by gains in equipment, intellectual property products, and private inventory investment. These gains were further bolstered by upturns in exports and post-shutdown government spending, which contributed about 1.3 pp and 0.7 pp, respectively, an increase in imports partially offset growth, subtracting approximately 2.6 pp from GDP. Inflation pressures intensified, with the gross domestic purchases price index rising 3.6%, while the PCE price index climbed to 4.5% and core PCE reached 4.3%. Underlying demand strengthened as real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.5%, up from 1.8%, indicating an economy gaining momentum despite rising prices.