The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index dropped 12 points to 88, the lowest level of the year The slight decline in optimism was primarily driven by worsening financial reports, including a 9-point drop in positive profit trends to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted) and a 6-point decline in higher nominal sales to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted). Labor quality remained the top concern, cited by 27% of owners up 9 points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021—while 32% continued to report job openings they could not fill. Price pressures eased modestly, as the net share of owners raising selling prices fell 3 points to 21%, though inflation concerns persisted. Capital spending edged lower, with 55% of firms making outlays in the past six months, while expectations for better business conditions declined 3 points to a net 20%, remaining above the long-term average.

The EIA’s November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast downward pressure on oil prices as global oil inventories are expected to continue rising through 2026. Brent crude is projected to fall to an average of $55 per barrel (b) in 2026, down from $69/b in 2025. This 2026 forecast is $3/b higher than the prior outlook, mainly due to updated assumptions on China's inventory builds and sanctions on Russia. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast rises to an average of almost $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter (November–March). Prices are expected to average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, up 16% from 2025, primarily due to increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports amid flat production growth. U.S. electricity sales are projected to increase by 2.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, with forecast growth led by the West South-Central region due to rising demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities.

The November 2025 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) estimated steady growth in the global oil market but showed caution regarding supply and price strength. The group kept its economic growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, signaling confidence in the broader outlook. Oil demand is expected to rise by about 1.3 mb/d this year and 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with China and India continuing to drive consumption gains. OPEC’s tone was measured—highlighting that rising non-OPEC supply and growing inventories could limit price strength. The OPEC Reference Basket slipped $5.19 in October to $65.20 per barrel, reflecting softer sentiment and expectations of a more balanced market ahead. The forecast for Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) crude was trimmed by 0.1 mb/d for both years, while output from non-DoC producers—mainly the U.S., Brazil, and Canada—is set to climb by 0.9 mb/d in 2025. OECD commercial stocks rose by 6.0 mb in September to 2,845 mb, still below the 2015–2019 average but trending higher, reinforcing OPEC’s cautious outlook on supply and prices.