The Commerce Department’s third estimate showed that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, up from the 1.5% second estimate but below the 2.5% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026. The increase in real GDP reflected gains across several industries, with positive contributions coming from durable goods manufacturing (+0.50 percentage points), construction (+0.14 pp), and utilities (+0.13 pp). These gains were partially offset by declines in mining (-0.12 pp) and wood products (-0.01 pp). On the inflation front, the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.6% and the PCE price index increased 5.0%, representing downward revisions of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the second estimate. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.3%, revised down 0.3 percentage points from the previous estimate.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI® registered 54.5% in September, edging down 0.1 percentage point from August’s reading of 54.6%, while marking the ninth consecutive month of overall manufacturing expansion. The monthly reading reflected continued momentum in underlying demand, led by a 1.6 pp gain in the New Orders Index to 55.3% and a 1.5 pp increase in the Employment Index to 52.7%. These gains, along with strong output in the Production Index at 56.7% (-1.6 pp), were partially offset by a 2.0 pp decline in Inventories to 48.6%, which pulled the sub-index back into contraction. Meanwhile, cost pressures accelerated dramatically as the Prices Index jumped 6.8 pp to 77.9%, while Supplier Deliveries registered 59.0% (-0.3 pp), indicating a 10th consecutive month of slower delivery performance. On a trade-flow basis, international activity remained in expansion territory, with the New Export Orders Index at 50.9% (-2.3 pp) and the Imports Index at 51.0% (-1.5 pp).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and the labor force participation rate was essentially unchanged at 61.8%. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remained virtually unchanged at 1.9 million, accounting for 27.1% of all unemployed workers. Industry gains were led by health care (+17,000), construction (+11,000), and manufacturing (+9,000), whereas financial activities edged down (-7,000) and has dropped by 129,000 since its peak in May 2025. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $37.81, reflecting a 3.0% increase over the past year, while combined revisions to July and August left employment 60,000 lower than previously reported.