The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reported 7.7 million job openings in October, essentially unchanged from September. The job openings rate also held steady at 4.6%. While overall openings were flat, several industries saw meaningful shifts. Reductions in openings were led by professional and business services (-114,000), followed by financial activities (-90,000), then information (-30,000), and the federal government (-25,000). Offsetting these decreases, openings rose sharply in trade, transportation, and utilities (+239,000), driven by gains in retail (+142,000) and wholesale trade (+52,000), while health care and social assistance increased (+49,000) and arts, entertainment, and recreation saw a gain (+11,000). Quits were little changed at 2.9 million, reflecting declines in several service industries offset by increases in arts, entertainment, recreation, and information. Total separations slipped to 5.05 million, with decreases in health care and the federal government partly balanced by rising layoffs in accommodation, food services, and state and local government.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3.5% to 3.75%. The Committee noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, though job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher, while inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections shows a median forecast for real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, rising to 2.3% in 2026, while the median unemployment rate projection holds at 4.5% in 2025 before easing to 4.2% by 2027. The median projections for PCE and core PCE inflation in 2025 declined to 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively, with both measures expected to move toward 2.0% by 2028. The median projected federal funds rate path remained unchanged from September at 3.6% for 2025 and 3.4% for 2026, drifting down to 3.1% in both 2027 and 2028.

The Commerce Department reported that the goods and services deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, a $6.4 billion improvement from a revised $59.3 billion in August. Exports increased 3.0% to $289.3 billion, driven by higher shipments of industrial supplies and consumer goods, while imports edged up 0.6% to $342.1 billion on modest gains in goods and services. The goods deficit fell $7.1 billion to $79.0 billion, though the services surplus slipped $0.6 billion to $26.2 billion. Year-to-date, the overall deficit has widened $112.6 billion, or 17.2%, compared with the same period in 2024, as exports grew $125.1 billion (5.2%) and imports rose $237.7 billion (7.7%). The trade deficit with China narrowed by $4.0 billion to $11.4 billion in September, as U.S. exports rose to $8.8 billion and imports declined to $20.1 billion, driven by a notable pullback in Chinese consumer and intermediate goods and a modest increase in U.S. industrial shipments.