The Chicago Business Barometer (also known as the Chicago PMI), which tracks regional manufacturing and service activity, fell to 40.6 in September from 41.5 in August. The drop extended the contraction streak to twenty-two months and, at the second-lowest level this year, largely reversed July's 6.7-point rebound. The overall decline was mainly driven by sharp reductions in New Orders (-7.0 points), Supplier Deliveries (-6.4 points), and Employment (-4.1 points), with employment hitting its lowest level since June 2009. While Production (+3.8 points) rose for the first time in six months, and Order Backlogs (+3.3 points) showed improvement, these gains were not enough to offset the broader negative trends. Inventories also weakened significantly (-7.5 points), although Prices Paid eased slightly (-0.4 points) to their lowest level since January.

The ADP National Employment Report showed that private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in September, following a sharp revision to August’s figure from a previously reported gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000. Small and midsize businesses were the hardest hit, shedding a combined 60,000 positions, while large firms added 33,000. Job losses were concentrated in leisure and hospitality (-19,000), professional and business services (-13,000), and financial activities (-9,000), while education and health services posted a gain of 33,000. Construction and manufacturing each edged down by 7,000 jobs, while most other industries showed little change. Annual pay for job-stayers rose 4.5%, while job-changers saw a slower 6.6% increase, down from 7.1% the previous month.

For the week ending September 26, 2025, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs saw a decrease of 308 million barrels per day (bpd), down to 16.2M bpd. Refinery operating capacity also fell to 91.4% from the previous week’s 93.1%. Gasoline output slipped to 9.3 million bpd, while distillate fuel edged down to 5.0 million bpd. Crude oil imports fell by 662,000 bpd to 5.8 million, bringing the four-week average to 6.1 million bpd, 7.5% below last year. Commercial crude inventories rose 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million, about 4% below the five-year average, while gasoline stocks added 4.1 million to 220.7 million, roughly in line with the five-year average. Distillate inventories gained 0.6 million but remained 6% below the five-year average, and propane/propylene climbed 3.5 million to 13% above the five-year average. Total petroleum inventories expanded by 6.4 million barrels.