The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales increased a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in November, the strongest reading of the year. Contract signings rose in all four major regions, up 2.6% Y/Y. Buyer traffic sentiment improved, with 22% of NAR members expecting higher buyer activity over the next three months, up from 17% in October and below the 24% seen one year ago. Seller expectations also edged higher, as 18% of members forecast increased seller interest, versus 16% last month and below the 22% recorded in November 2024. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted homebuyer momentum is building, citing the best contract activity in nearly three years, supported by improving affordability as mortgage rates decline and wage growth outpaces home price gains, while greater inventory choices versus last year are helping buyers re-engage the market. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on roughly 40% of MLS data, serves as a leading indicator for closed sales typically finalized within one to two months.

The minutes from the December 9–10 FOMC meeting reflected ongoing risk reassessment amid a moderating economy and softer labor conditions. The Committee voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3½ to 3¾ percent target range, with most participants citing increased downside risks to employment and a stable or modestly reduced inflation risk profile compared with earlier in 2025. Members reiterated that job gains had slowed through September, and that recent private-sector and survey data pointed to uneven but continued labor market cooling, with lower-income households showing particular sensitivity to job stability. Inflation was described as “somewhat elevated,” with firmer goods pricing largely tied to tariff effects, even as housing services inflation moved closer to levels seen before the tightening cycle. While a majority indicated that further easing would be appropriate if disinflation progressed as expected, several participants favored a pause to review incoming data and limit the risk that inflation expectations could drift above the 2 percent objective.

The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ending December 27. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 218,750, up 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 269,953 in the week ending December 27, increasing 5,333, or 2.0% from the prior week. Twenty states and U.S. territories posted increases in unemployment claims, while thirty-three recorded declines. For the week ending December 20, the insured unemployment rate held steady at a seasonally adjusted 1.2%. Total insured unemployment reached 1,866,000, down 47,000 from the prior week’s revised level. For the week ending December 13, 1,977,154 continued weeks were claimed under regular state programs, contributing to 2,021,951 total weeks claimed across all state and federal benefit programs, 116,047 more than the week before. In the comparable week in 2024, 283,488 initial claims were filed, and 1,974,874 weeks were claimed in all programs, reflecting a modest year-over-year decline in new unemployment filings.