The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined 0.2% in June to 99.1 (2016=100), partially reversing gains in April and May, while the index fell 0.3% over the first half of 2026, a significantly smaller decline than the 1.1% contraction recorded during the second half of 2025. The monthly decline was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most categories, which outweighed positive contributions from financial components, led by the yield spread. Despite weakening consumer spending, strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity, prompting The Conference Board to raise its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2% in June to 114.6, following a similar gain in May, with all four component indicators contributing positively, while the CEI rose 0.4% over the first half of 2026. The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) was unchanged at 120.5 in June after declining 0.1% in May and increased 1.1% over the first half of the year./p>

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that advance seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell 22,000 in the week ending July 18 to 187,000, following a revised 209,000 claims in the previous week. The four-week moving average declined to 207,500, down 7,250 from the prior week, while the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% for the week ending July 11. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell 21.8% to 192,296, remaining below the 216,023 claims filed during the comparable week in 2025. At the state level, 4 states and territories reported increases in initial claims, while 49 recorded declines. Total seasonally adjusted insured unemployment decreased by 2,000 to 1,796,000 following a downward revision to the previous week’s level. For the week ending July 4, total continued claims across all programs increased by 64,843 to 1,864,638, remaining below the 2,039,439 claims reported during the comparable week a year earlier.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales increased 1.6% in June to 628,000, following a revised 618,000 rate in May, while sales were 5.6% below the year-earlier rate of 665,000. Regionally, sales increased in the South (+9.9%), Northeast (+3.6%), and Midwest (+2.5%), but declined sharply in the West (-22.4%). The average sale price for a new home fell 9.5% to $475,400 from $525,200 in May and was down 6.5% from $508,700 a year earlier, while the median sale price declined 3.3% to $398,300 and was 2.7% below the June 2025 level of $409,200. The seasonally adjusted inventory of new homes for sale decreased to 485,000 at the end of June, down 0.2% from May and 3.2% from a year earlier, while the supply of homes for sale declined to 9.3 months from 9.4 months in May but remained above the 9.0 months recorded in June 2025.