The June Chicago Business Barometer™ fell to 56.7, down 6.0 points from May, though the index remained in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month. The decline was driven by weaker New Orders and Production, with Production falling 10.4 points and nearly reversing May’s gain while remaining expansionary for the sixth straight month. New Orders dropped 11.7 points but stayed above the 50 threshold for a second month. Supplier Deliveries rose 8.8 points to the highest level since June 2022, reflecting longer lead times linked to the Middle East conflict. Input cost pressures intensified, with Prices Paid reaching the highest level since May 2022 amid higher oil and metal prices. Employment improved 1.3 points but remained in contraction for a fourth consecutive month, while Order Backlogs increased 2.4 points to the highest level since December 2022.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that for the week ending June 26, 2026, U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 3.8M barrels to 408.4M barrels, leaving stocks about 7% below the five-year average. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories declined by 5.5M barrels to 325.7M barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7M barrels, driven by a 2.3M-barrel decline in gasoline stocks, which remained about 7% below average, while distillates rose 2.5M barrels but stayed roughly 8% below average. Refinery activity remained strong, with crude inputs averaging 17.2M bpd and utilization at 96.6%; gasoline production averaged 10.0M bpd and distillate production 5.2M bpd. Crude imports averaged 5.3M bpd, down 291K bpd from the prior week. Over the past four weeks, total products supplied averaged 20.6M bpd, up 1.7% from the same period last year.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, with both measures showing little change. Professional and business services led job gains (+36,000), followed by social assistance (+25,000) and health care (+22,000), while leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs, reflecting weaker-than-usual seasonal hiring. The labor force participation rate declined 0.3 percentage point to 61.5. The number of individuals unemployed for less than five weeks fell by 28,000 to 2.182 million, while the long-term unemployed remained little changed at 1.9 million, accounting for 27.3% of all unemployed workers. Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 to $37.64, up 3.5% from a year earlier, while revisions to April and May payrolls reduced previously reported job gains by a combined 74,000.