The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts a cooling in global oil markets, with Brent crude prices forecast to average $66 per barrel in 2025 and decline to $59 in 2026, down from $81 in 2024. The outlook expects steady production growth outside OPEC+ and easing demand in OECD economies. Conversely, natural gas prices are projected to rise, fueled by strong U.S. LNG export growth, with the Henry Hub spot forecast revised to $4.00/MMBtu in 2025 and to $4.90/MMBtu in 2026, compared with $2.20/MMBtu in 2024. Domestic crude oil production is expected to hold near record levels, averaging 13.4 million barrels per day through 2026, but growth is seen as slowing. U.S. electricity consumption is projected to grow 3% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, up from the previous outlook’s 2% annual growth through 2026. Real GDP growth is forecast to slow 0.1 percentage points to 1.4% in 2025, which could dampen broad energy demand.

The Federal Reserve’s July G.19 Consumer Credit report for May 2025 reported a slowdown in borrowing activity, as higher interest rates appear to be weighing on household demand. Total consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2%, significantly down from April’s 4.0% gain. Revolving credit—primarily credit card debt—declined by 3.2%, significantly down from April’s 6.9% gain. Conversely, nonrevolving credit, which includes auto and student loans, rose by 2.8%, but down slightly from April’s 3.0% gain. The total outstanding consumer credit balance reached $5.048 trillion, split between $1.299 trillion in revolving and $3.749 trillion in nonrevolving credit.

The minutes from the June 17–18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed cautious optimism among participants. The Committee kept the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, noting that the economy continued to expand at a solid pace and that labor market conditions remained strong, with unemployment still low. Inflation was described as “somewhat elevated,” though concerns over tariffs had eased, contributing to a decline in overall uncertainty. Most participants saw rate cuts later this year as likely appropriate if inflation continues to fall and labor market conditions soften, while others argued for holding steady due to persistent inflation and economic resilience. The minutes also highlighted the ongoing balance sheet runoff and reinforced the Fed’s commitment to its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.