Supplemental Info:
MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum’s annual threat update (delivered earlier today at Thames House) describes a “new era of national security” in which state threats and terrorism are roughly equal in scale for MI5. State-threat caseloads have quadrupled over a decade (more resources devoted to them than during the Cold War), and the UK terrorism threat level has returned to SEVERE (“attack highly likely”) for the first time in almost five years.
Full Transcript:
https://www.mi5.gov.uk/mi5-director-general-delivers-annual-threat-update
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Summary
State Threats
MI5 is heavily using the National Security Act (dozens of arrests, charges, prosecutions, and convictions linked to Russia, Iran, and China).
Russia (“aggressor number one”): Escalating hybrid warfare below NATO Article V thresholds, including cyber-attacks (e.g., on Polish energy infrastructure), explosive-laden drone attempts (e.g., targeting a cargo plane in Germany), thwarted assassination plots (e.g., in the US), and a UK case charging preparation to sabotage a drone factory in Swindon. Tactics include paying criminals or exploiting volunteers (e.g., GRU Volunteer Corps) to intimidate the UK amid setbacks in Ukraine.
Iran: Using criminal proxies to intimidate oppositionists, Iranian media, and Israeli sites, with expanded hybrid campaigns leading to over 50 arrests in the UK in 2026. Targets include British Jewish communities (charged plot in Manchester; waves of arson and sabotage against ambulances, synagogues, and businesses claimed by the IRGC-backed Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right). Shift toward harder targets such as military sites.
China: Espionage, coercion, and democratic interference. First UK convictions for national security offences involving a “shadow policing” operation. Espionage alerts (including on the CGTRI institute funding research to improve Chinese MSS capabilities in AI and cybersecurity); warnings about cover companies, fake headhunter profiles, and professional networking sites targeting government and military staff.
Terrorism
Threats span Islamist, Extreme Right-Wing, Extreme Left-Wing, Northern Ireland-related, and other forms. Extreme Right-Wing terrorism is a significant driver of the return to SEVERE.
Islamist: Leadership of Islamic State degraded, but Al-Qaida and Islamic State continue to direct and inspire attacks. Examples include three extremists convicted in February 2026 for planning mass-casualty attacks with automatic weapons against the Jewish community in Manchester.
Extreme Right-Wing: Rising cases in which anti-immigration and anti-Muslim grievances tip into terrorist intent, including plots against mosques, immigration venues, and Islamic centres. Notable involvement of young perpetrators influenced online (e.g., a 13-year-old investigated in the UK whose case helped prevent an overseas attack; a 16-year-old from Inverclyde sentenced to ten years for attacking a local Islamic Centre).
Cyber, Sabotage, Arson, and Related Risks
Cyber-attacks target critical infrastructure (energy and water systems, European defence companies, a UK energy generator) and extend to risks for banking apps, airports (via drones), and hospitals. AI is already supercharging these contests, tailored propaganda, radicalising material, and reconnaissance (including AI-enabled drones).
Sabotage and arson are linked to state actors (Russian attempts; Iranian waves against Jewish sites and other targets). Vulnerabilities exist in energy grids, supply chains, manufacturing, and other critical infrastructure. Coercion and violence include “shadow policing,” proxy attacks on communities (especially Jewish) and political figures, plus weaponised polarisation via trolls and algorithms.
AI-Related Threats
AI amplifies cyber-attacks, propaganda, and terrorist reconnaissance. Potential (not yet realised) for bioweapons or novel pathogens is weighted highly. Broader concerns include the “alignment problem” with AI systems smarter than humans. MI5 launched the AI Threat Assessment Centre (AITAC) in 2026 (drawing on AISI, NCA, NCSC, and Five Eyes) to produce all-source assessments distinguishing bluster from reality.
Other Elements
Hostile reconnaissance, drone threats, insider risks, and espionage feature prominently. The speech stresses building resilience (via NPSA/NCSC guidance on sabotage, drones, cyber, etc.), noting real-world impacts such as power disruptions, heightened security at places of worship, and social-media manipulation, and calls for societal resilience because no system catches every threat.
In short, the update frames a contested environment of hybrid state aggression (especially Russia and Iran), evolving terrorism (with Extreme Right-Wing rising), infrastructure/cyber vulnerabilities, and AI as an accelerator across the board.
