Supplemental Info:
Threat Assessment: New Year's Eve Celebrations 2025-2026
As of December 28, 2025, global New Year's Eve celebrations face an elevated but non-specific threat environment, characterized by persistent risks from lone offenders, small cells, and ideologically motivated actors. No specific or credible threats have been identified for major events, including Times Square, yet recent attacks, foiled plots, and historical patterns underscore the need for vigilance.
Intelligence products from DHS/FBI/NCTC continue to highlight ongoing risks from domestic extremists, ideologically motivated individuals, and homegrown violent actors supporting foreign terrorist organizations like al-Qaida and ISIS.
Key Threats:
Primary concerns include vehicle-ramming attacks, a tactic surging in 2025 with over 30 incidents worldwide in 2025, often targeting crowds. Joint DHS/FBI/NCTC assessments highlight this method for events like Times Square and Chicago's Navy Pier fireworks.
Explosives and improvised devices remain risks, evidenced by thwarted plots: four arrests in Southern California for planned bombings in crowded venues, arrests in Germany and Poland for planned attacks on Christmas markets, and disruptions in Turkey targeting Islamic State-linked suicide attacks.
Lone wolves or small groups inspired by foreign terrorist organizations (e.g., ISIS supporters) or domestic extremists pose the most persistent danger, per DHS/FBI reports for high-profile gatherings.
Regional Variations:
In the U.S., high-profile celebrations proceed with enhanced security: NYPD has deployed extensive measures in Times Square, including checkpoints, barriers, and prohibitions on backpacks. Internationally, several cities have scaled back plans—Paris canceled Champs-Élysées concerts (fireworks proceed), Sydney and Bondi Beach have scrapped events post-recent attacks, while Tokyo and Belgrade have cancelled shows due to crowd safety and terror risks—reflecting broader caution.
Mitigations and Outlook:
Proactive law enforcement disruptions, robust layered security (drones, screening, public reporting), and event modifications effectively mitigate risks. The FBI and DHS emphasize vigilance without panic, noting no imminent plots.
Overall threat level: Moderate to high for crowded gatherings, driven by lone actors and small cells, but substantially reduced through preparedness. Attendees should remain aware, report suspicious activity, and anticipate security delays.
