Supplemental Info:
From the 11:00PM Forecast Discussion:
"Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system, this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt [110 MPH] hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast of Florida."
In the graphic below, remember that the cone shows an estimation of track forecast uncertainty. It does NOT represent the physical size of the storm NOR the extent of potential storm impact.
NHC Storm Page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
TS Idalia Graphics https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
TS Idalia Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/280303.shtml
TS Idalia Forecast Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280257.shtml?
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