Was the US economy strong… or dangerously fragile… just before the Iran War began?
On the surface, everything looked solid.
Growth was steady.
Unemployment was low.
Asset prices were near record highs.
But beneath that strength, something fundamental had changed.
A Different Kind of Growth
For decades, economic growth depended on credit expansion.
That is no longer true.
Today, the US economy is being driven by:
- Government deficits
- Federal Reserve liquidity
- Foreign capital inflows
- And rising asset prices
Why That Matters
This shift has made the economy more dependent—and more fragile.
If policy support weakens, or if asset prices fall, growth could slow very quickly.
And there are already signs of strain:
- Inflation was rising again—even before the war
- Long-term interest rates were moving higher
- Housing activity remained constrained by high mortgage rates
- Job growth had slowed significantly
The Critical Vulnerability
The most important driver of growth has been the surge in wealth.
But that creates a risk.
When asset prices are elevated, the economy depends on them staying elevated.
If they fall, the impact can be rapid and severe.
And Then Came the Shock
The Iran War may now change everything.
If it leads to:
- Higher inflation
- Higher interest rates
- And declining asset prices
Then the consequences could be far more serious than most expect.
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