Hi Folks.
A quick explanation about the process of putting this week's forecast together. As I typically do, I sat down Friday morning to review the calendar, make note of any entries that might hold potential for a decent trade, then look at the past charts to see if any of that potential was realized over the previous 3 months.
And lately, I've been taking a second look at a lot of Japanese numbers as the Japanese economy is trying to get revved up again after a 4 decade nap.
The only difference this Friday is that I pulled a muscle or three in my back Thursday night and I was in a lot of pain and a very bad mood as a result. So my review of this week's calendar essentially was "Garbage. Trash. Worthless" and other words to that effect.
As I was writing it I was in considerable pain and a very bad mood, and I knew I needed to come back in Sunday morning, pop a handful of Aleve's if need be, and take a fresh look at the entries and try and put together something a bit more positive.
The problem is, it's now Sunday morning, the Aleve's have kicked in, and there still isn't anything positive to say about this week's pending numbers. It's all one big dumpster fire and a perfect example of what Fed Head Wersh was talking about when he said economic numbers on the whole were worthless (his actual words were "outdated, mis-measured and otherwise problematic"). Same difference. There is not a better word to describe the numbers as a whole, at least this week and for our purposes, then worthless.
So please understand I actually put in the prep time this week, but as a wise man once said, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken crap.
So enjoy this very brief forecast, and if you are a serious news trader, better luck next week.
SUNDAY: OPEC meets all day today, Australia and China have Bank Holidays, and both Australia and New Zealand release numbers at 8:00 p.m. that no one cares about from a trading perspective. Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Both sessions are filled to the top with garbage numbers. Our old friend Nagel from the German Buba is speaking at 3:45 a.m. my time and for some reason he's now a Yellow folder event, likely because the guy makes multiple appearances on the calendar every week [except this week where this is his only speaking engagement] so his impact is diminishing.
USA Session: Generic Services PMI at 9:45 and ISM Services PMI at 10:00. If this were a year ago we'd be somewhat excited by the 10:00 number, but lately we've seen a bunch of single digit responses to the ISM version, just like we have all along with the generic version. Thus the downgrade to Beige Folder for the ISM. Pass on both.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again, both sessions are nothing but filler numbers, although Ueda from the Bank of Japan is speaking at 2:35 a.m. my time, and while it looks like a run of the mill speaking engagement, he doesn't venture out into public like this too often, so Yen traders beware. But Pass on the rest of it.
USA Session: Two ADP Weekly Employment Change numbers at 8:15 a.m. (last week's was put off until today because of ADP's monthly NFP assessment). Nobody cares. Trade Balance at 8:30 does nothing for price, so another Pass. That floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism report is a floater so you can ignore the fact this one does nothing for price action either and just ignore it because it floats. Fed Speak at 10:45 and that weekly ADP Oil Bulletin at 4:30. Ignore both.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Garbage, both session. Pass on the lot.
USA Session: Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m., 10y Bond Auction at 1:01, the Minutes from the Fed's last meeting at 2:00, and Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. Aside from the Oil number for Oil traders, the rest is just trash in terms of tradeable price action (yes, the Fed minutes are trash because we have no reasonable course of action we can follow after their release).
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Finally we get some numbers we can sink our teeth into. Just kidding. More of the same trash we've seen all week. Pass on both sessions.
USA Session: Weekly Unemployment at 8:30 has once again sunk into an 8-12 pip response over the 30 minutes after release, unless other numbers drop simultaneously that are worth trading. That's not the case here. Pass. Aside from NatGas for NatGas traders, the balance of the entries for today are trash. Pass.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Our 5th trash session in a row, and that includes the Canadian Non-Farm Payroll at 8:30 a.m. They don't call it the NFP but that's what it is for our purposes. When it drops the same date and time as the US NFP, we see 50 pip fireworks. When it drops all by itself, we see 10 pips. That's the case today. All alone = 10 pips = Pass.
USA Session: Preliminary UofM numbers have failed to live up to their previous salad days and are rarely worth more than 12-13 pips. We need to see some big numbers here for a couple of months in a row before this one comes off the Pay No Mind list. And if you're trading at 4 p.m. on a Friday when our final calendar entry for the week, Fed Speak, gets rolling, consider seeking professional help. Nothing good comes out of trading at 4 p.m. on a Friday.
And there you have it. The worst week of news events I can remember ever seeing in the last 20+ years of reading the weekly calendar. The good news is Monday of next week is a holiday for many of us, and the rest of the week actually has a few numbers worth looking at. So enjoy this unscheduled week off and I'll see you back here next Sunday.
Jeff
