Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: All we have is a little Australian Fed Speak at 5::30 p.m. So this keeps our nearly perfect streak of not having anything worth trading show up on calendar on Sunday evening alive and well.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: We'll start by mentioning that both ECOFIN and the Eurogroup are holding meetings today during the London part of the session. This tends to be a lot of jabber and very little impact on trading, but you never know. These are the guys steering the European economy, so be aware they are meeting and at any time could say something to torpedo your open trade. Aside from that, the entries today are mostly benign and not intended to move price around at all. Doubly true for the London session. Bailey from the BOE speaks during the US session at 12:25 p.m. so be aware, GBP traders. The later (Asian) session is primarily Japanese numbers and none of them have a history of 1. Creating tradeable price action, or 2. Showing up on calendar at the same time. So there is nothing on the charts to lead us to believe those numbers will push the Yen around any. So the entire session looks to be a Pass.
USA Session: Final Wholesale Inventories at 10:00 a.m., accompanied by Fed Speak, plus more Fed Speak at 12:15 p.m.. Don't bother with any of it. Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Another completely lost session as we have a bunch of calendar entries across both sessions and not a single entry that looks like it has the power to move price even 10 pips, much less 20 or beyond. Pass on the entire session for the second day in a row.
USA Session: We start with the double ADP Weekly Employment Change numbers (last week they released the monthly number ahead of the NFP on Friday, and apparently are not able to multi-task) so you get to ignore two numbers today instead of one. Pass on both. But we all snap to attention at 8:30 as the US CPI numbers drops. 30, 35, and 71 pips over the last three releases make this one a must trade event, particularly now that we have a Fed dedicated to fighting inflation as soon as it rears its ugly head, a nice change of pace from previous Feds who liked to wait 12-18 months and let inflation get entrenched into the economy before making a move. So this one will live up to its inclusion as a High Holy Day of trading. The rest of the day is a Bond auction, Fed Speak, and that Oil Report that drops at 4:30 p.m. on Tuesdays and is not tradeable. So today it's CPI all the way.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Yet another complete waste of electrons as the calendar is all about a bunch of numbers no one ever trades. We also get a French Bank Holiday for Armistice Day (what we call Veteran's Day in the US). Canada does the same. So Pass for the third day in a row.
USA Session: As noted above, US banks are closed for Veteran's Day. Indices and other markets remain open but historically it's a pretty slow day, so don't expect much price action if you do decide to trade today.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: We finally get a number (Great Britain's GDP m/m at 2:00 a.m.) that has been worth watching and even trading on occasion. The last 3 months gave us 24, 16, and 16 pips (the 24 coming 3 months ago). This slow slide for another formerly very tradeable GBP number continues, but given the complete lack of news during this session this week, it could overperform and get back above 20 simply because there is nothing else worth trading this week during the A/L session. And that includes literally everything else on today's calendar aside from the GB GDP. It's all filler numbers designed to make the calendar look busy. So today trade the GDP at 2:00 a.m. or don't bother trading at all.
USA Session: We start with the Weakly Unemployment number, which so far the past 3 weeks has posted 6, 23, and 8 pips. And before you get excited about that 26, understand it dropped along with Advance US GDP (which came out better than expected) and the Core PCE (which came out on target meaning no excess signs of inflation). Today there are no "better" numbers to boost the pip count, so just go ahead and Pass like we normally do. After that, we get a lot of stuff not designed to move prices around at all. It's so depressing I don't even want to bother listing them here. So it's another example of water water everywhere and not a single number to trade. But Crude Oil makes today's calendar at noon because of yesterday's holiday. So be aware, Crude traders.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: A handful of EU-member specific numbers that traders love to ignore, so you should too. The Eurozone does drop their quarterly Unemployment number, which has generated a robust 8, 12, and 6 pips over the last 3 number drops. So an easy Pass here. And the rest of the meager calendar, made up of Canadian Sales Numbers, is also an easy pass. Canada used to be the source of some pretty good trades, but those days seem to be over for now as well.
USA Session: An extremely limited but somewhat interesting calendar for this morning. PPI at 8:30 a.m. Normally we'd expect this one within 24 hours of the CPI (which you may recall dropped on Tuesday this week) and when we get them back-to-back the PPI typically suffers a little in terms of sub-par price action (when compared to the CPI). But with a few days in between, and an otherwise empty calendar this week, the PPI offers traders one last chance this week to make bank. So I am leaning towards the idea that this one could overperform as well and give traders a decent run for their money. So don't treat it like a normal PPI today. It might very well shoot past +20. After PPI we get NatGas at 10:30, thanks to the Wednesday holiday. And that's it. Not even any Fed Speak today. So it's PPI or take the day off. Your choice.
And that's it for another week. See you back here next Sunday as we creep ever closer to US Thanksgiving and holiday trading conditions.
Jeff | 
