Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: We start the week with a pair of Aussie reports: MI Inflation Gauge at 9:00 p.m. and ANZ Job Advertisements m/m at 9:30 p.m. Both are deserving of their Yellow Folder status and can be safely ignored. And that's it for Sunday evening.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: The Swiss CPI kicks off at 2:30 a.m. my time, and over the last 3 months this one has generated 17, 18 and 40+ pips in the 30 minutes after the number drops. The 17/18 pip results are sort of the bare minimum I look for in deciding if a number is worth trading, but the 40+ number is definitely in my wheelhouse. So keep an eye on the USDCHF Monday early. After the Swiss CPI things are pretty much downhill in both the morning and evening sessions. So make it CPI or nothing today.
USA Session: Final Services PMI hits at 9:45 a.m. but everyone has their eyes trained on the ISM Services PMI at 10:00. This one does a lot better when paired with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, but it can still move price around some on its own. There is that floating Loan Officer Survey but no fixed time for release, so pass on that one.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: The Swiss start us off 2 nights in a row, this time with their Unemployment Rate number at 1:45 a.m. I think there are more unemployed guys hanging out in the parking lot at my local Home Depot than there are in all of Switzerland combined, and the numbers seem to bear that out as this one generates single-digit moves in the 15 minutes after the release. Except last month the rate ticked up 1/10th of a percent and the USDCHF jumped 21 pips in a few minutes. So again, we are just over the threshold of possible gains to make this number at least mildly interesting, and if it misses again, particularly to the upside, we could see some real price movement for a change. The rest of the session is a snooze, except we have a string of Final Services PMI numbers dropping from all over Europe and GB: Spain @ 3:15; Italy @ 3:45; France @ 3:50; Germany @ 3:55; EU @ 4:00; and GBP @ 4:30. As usual, look for some consistency in the numbers either missing high or low, and watch for any sort of minor trend that could develop. This is the "final" number so it might not end up shocking any traders who followed the earlier numbers. But at least it's something to watch in an otherwise mundane session. There is a NZD NFP type number dropping at 6:45 p.m., and it's normally a pass, but 2 numbers back the number came out a tick worse than expected and the NZDUSD moved 21 pips from tip to tip in the next 30 minutes. Again, it's just barely over my threshold, but we don't get too many NZD numbers we can even think about trading, so if the Asian Session is your jam, keep an eye on this one. It's a possible maybe.
USA Session: Trade balance at 8:30 a.m. It rarely causes a stir. The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Report is a floater that normally hits a few minutes after 10:00 a.m., but that's not specific enough and frankly, when I've gone back and looked at price action after the number finally hits. it's not worth mentioning. The 10y Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. and the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin at 4:30 p.m., neither of which are in play for us (although I've spoken with a couple of you who do trade bonds through your Futures account on NinjaTrader, so I remember you even if I don't make any sort of deal about the number release).
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: A whole lot of nothing. Any one of these reports could end up surprising us with some sort of release-based price move, but that's exactly what it would be: a surprise. None of the Yellow (and mis-guided Beige) Folder numbers are worth worrying about.
USA Session: Crude Oil at 10:30, which is great for Oil traders. Then at 2:00 p.m., Jerome Powell and his band of merry mischief-makers are set to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 4.50% in the face of growing pressure from the White House to start cutting. It's a stupid game of chicken where if the parties end up wrecking, we're the ones who absorb all the damage in the form of a recession (which more than a couple of people claim has already started). But Powell hates President Trump and is going out of his way to make these meetings as uncomfortable as possible by holding the rates steady. It should make for an interesting presser at 2:30 p.m.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Again, the early numbers are yellow folder disappointments. But at 7:00 a.m., the Brits have their Monetary Policy Meetings and release their Interest Rate Decision and this one promises to move the GBPUSD around quite a bit if history is our guide. And that's pretty much it in terms of the Asian/London numbers for the entire day. But it's a top tier number that usually moves 40+ pips so if it's all you do today it's probably enough.
USA Session: Weekly Unemployment Claims at 8:30 and honestly, not much else the rest of the session. And the UI number hasn't done much for traders lately, although last week's number came in 20k higher than expected and there were a couple of exciting moments as a result. But overall, this one isn't as important as it was 6-9 months ago.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: A relatively quiet Friday, with Yellow Folders scattered about. But Bailey from the BOE speaks at 4:40 a.m. at some conference in Iceland with audience questions expected. He is on the same level as Powell from the US Fed so be aware he's speaking this morning and protect any decent trades you find yourself in after 4:30 a.m. At 8:30 the Canadians release their Employment Change number and like all the good Canadian numbers, this one will likely move the CAD around some. So get ready all you Loonie Traders.
USA Session: All Fed Speak, All Day. Doesn't matter who or where or why, just beware that at the following times, someone from the Fed will be running their yap and potentially screwing up some otherwise very nice trades: 6:15 a.m.; 6:45 a.m.; 8:30 a.m.; 10:00 a.m.; 11:30 a.m.; and 7:45 p.m. (and the markets are long closed by then so no worries on this last one).
See you back here next week.
Jeff
