Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Aside from notice of the Golden Week bank holiday in Japan, all we get are 3 Australian numbers: MI Inflation Gauge at 9:00 pm and ANZ Job Advertisements m/m and Building Approvals m/m at 9:30 p.m., and none of them are likely to cause even a blip in price action, so yet another in a long string of Sunday evening Passes.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Great Britain banks are closed to celebrate May Day 3 days late. The remaining early session is the Final Manufacturing PMI numbers out of Spain (3:15), Switzerland (3:30), Italy (3:45), France (3:50), Germany (3:55), and the Eurozone (4:00). Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. The Eurogroup meets all day today, but there is no indication that any earth-shattering news is likely to emerge. Nagel from the German Buba speaks at 1:05, followed by Macklem from the Bank of Canada at 3:30 p.m., so some of the heavier Fed Heads are in front of a mic this afternoon. A pair of 3rd tier numbers out of New Zealand at 9:00 and Australia at 9:30 pm brings the session to a close. Nothing worth trading, really, but at least there is a lot of it.
USA Session: At 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders drops, and I guarantee traders won't even know it happened. This one is right up there with the various Inventories numbers that does ZERO for price action. Fed Speak at 12:50 and a floating Loan Officer Survey (which gets calendared every month but like the Factory Orders number, does zero for price action), likely because it's not a tradeable number.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Arriving at the party a wee bit late, Australia releases their Interest Rate decision at 12:30 a.m. my time (everybody else got theirs in last week). The last three times this one dropped it generated 21, 12 and 6 pips, and the 21 pip result happened when they stood pat on their existing rate. The last two were quarter point cuts and the AUDUSD did little to nothing. The moral of the story is don't bother. There is a presser set for 1:30 a.m. so maybe we see some fireworks during that, but not likely. The rest of the morning is garbage, although Lagarde from the EuroFed is speaking at 8:30 a.m., so be aware she's out there. The evening numbers are mostly trash as well, although New Zealand releases their version of the Non-Farm Payroll at 6:45 p.m. The previous 3 numbers were 2, 4 and 21 pips. Yes, those are 2 and 4 pip results in the 15 minutes after the number dropped, and not me making a typing mistake. The 21 pip result last month was completely out of character for the NZNFP, where 2-5 pip results are the long term norm. But last month they posted a huge miss to the upside (expecting a .3% number and getting a .5%) so that likely caught everyone off guard and resulted in some actual price action for a change. Looking backwards, those types of big misses were more commonplace during the Pandemic, but over the last couple of years the number has been very close or directly on the expectation. So don't expect a replay of that 21 pip move tonight. Play it safe and pass.
USA Session: Trade Balance at 8:30 starts us off with a PASS, then at 9:45 we get the Final Services PMI, which is the one everybody ignores. The good news is at 10:00 a.m. we get the ISM Services PMI, linked with the JOLTS Job Openings number. We also get New Home Sales (no one is paying attention) and Bowman from the Fed is speaking somewhere. The PMI/JOLTS combination is likely the best (and only) bet to see anything resembling real price action. ISM Services PMI rarely moves things around much, but when linked with JOLTS or the ISM Manufacturing PMI number (which dropped last week) we tend to see some decent movement on the charts. So definitely pay attention to this one. We get a late (Feb) New Home Sales number thrown in for good measure, but no one really cares about 3 month old numbers. That RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism floater is on calendar, but it's a floater, so... Fed Speak at 12:30 and that API Oil Bulletin (not a number) at 4:30 closes out our day. So it looks like PMI/JOLTS is all we have to work with today.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: We get the Final Services PMI numbers this morning from Spain (3:15), Italy (3:45), France (3:50), Germany (3:55), Eurozone (4:00) and Great Britain (4:30). No Trend = No Trade and no trend is what you can expect from this one. Eurozone drops their PPI number at 5:00 but historically traders don't seem to notice. Pass. At 10:00 Canada drops their Ivey PMI number, and while this one runs in hot and cold streaks, right now the last 3 numbers of 17, 32 and 22 make me want to give this one a shot, since it's better than lukewarm right now. The rest of the calendar into the evening session is junk, including the Japanese Monetary Base, which is still posting mid-teens results at best (and last month was a stellar 8 pips). Pass.
USA Session: 8:15 brings us the ADP Non-Farm Payroll number, which only serves as a guide to measure what we should/could expect this coming Friday. Otherwise, it's not worth paying attention to. And crude Oil at 10:30. Aside from some random Fed Speak at 9:30 a.m. and 1:00 p.m., that's the entire day summed up in a single word: PASS.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: 11 entries over both sessions, and they are all trash. Not a single number coming out will move any of the charts more than 3-5 pips. It's just one of those days.
USA Session: And down here in the US session, things aren't any better. Only the Weekly Unemployment number has any history of making prices go zoom and it's been a long time since that happened. The rest is just Fed Speak, trash numbers, delayed trash numbers and NatGas at 10:30, for anyone who trades NatGas. Just a terrible day, news-wise, for the entire 24 hours.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Again, more garbage numbers for the most part, although Lagarde speaks at 3:00 a.m. so you need to keep an eye on her if only to protect any open trades you have going once she starts bloviating. And Bailey from the Bank of Canada does the same at 8:20 a.m., so since he resides on the Lagarde/Powell, er, Warsh level, be aware. But Canada drops their version of Non-Farm Payroll at 8:30 (at the same time the US drops theirs) so this one is all but guaranteed to be trade-worthy.
USA Session: It's finally here! 8:30 a.m. is Non-Farm Payroll day (and time). One of the three High Holy Days of American trading. So be awake and stay sharp. And if that's not enough to scratch your itch, we get the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers at 10:00, along with one of those useless Inventories numbers. For a while now the market has been giving the Prelim UofM numbers a lot more respect that I think they deserve (and remember, trade what you see, not what you think you should be seeing). However, the last 3 months have failed to inspire (17, 8 and 12 pips are the best it could post in the 30 minutes after release). So maybe be happy with what you skim off the NFP and call it a day.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
