Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Only one entry for the session and that is the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions from their last interest rate meeting a few days back. A report, not a number, so it's an easy Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Generally a "blah" session both morning and evening. Germany leads off with their own CPI (as opposed to the Eurozone version) and the only thing of interest is that it takes All Day for the number to be compiled, from data received at different times from 6 separate member states. Germans are known for efficiency, which makes this most inefficient manner of data gathering a point of interest. The rest of the numbers are all second and third tier numbers, not designed to move any prices around on any chart. The exception might end up being the Tokyo Core CPI number that drops at 7:30 p.m. my time. The previous three numbers checked in at 38, 24, and 16. Those numbers are headed the wrong way, and previous numbers prior to last December were sub-20 postings as well. But on a day where most of the numbers are solid crap, this one is your best shot at seeing at least a little price action.
USA Session: I tried to sit down yesterday to start writing this forecast, as there is a lot of data involved this week, and I noticed that for today at least, we had zero calendar entries. So, I told myself, at least one session will be written off with a single sentence. So imagine my surprise to sit down this afternoon (Friday) and see Powell and Williams both snuck into the entries: Powell speaking at Hahvaaahd at 10:30 a.m. and Williams in Staten Island (oh the glorious lives Fed members must lead) at 4:00. Can't do anything with either but since Powell is still currently in charge, be aware he's out there at 10:30 and don't let him keelhaul a good trade if you can avoid it.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Another session with a ton of numbers dropping, but it's all about quantity and not quality. Most are not even worth mentioning by name (a lot of them being country specific numbers like French Consumer Spending and dreck like that). Because FF has the Eurozone Flash CPI numbers listed at Beige folder, I feel compelled to mention the last 3 numbers it generated were 10, 8, and 13. Not exactly Beige Folder price action, in my opinion. Canada also releases their GDP at 8:30 a.m., and what was once a mighty number is now reduced to posting numbers like 13, 11, and 10 over the last 3 months. Way too far below 20 pips to be worth taking a risk. The rest of it (mostly in the evening) has no recent history of doing anything aside from boring traders to sleep.
USA Session: A much busier session than yesterday, but once again very little to work with. A pair of Housing numbers to be ignored drop at 9:00 a.m., followed by the Chicago PMI, of interest only to people in Chicago. At 10:00 a.m. we get the JOLTS Job Openings number, paired with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence number, which on its own does absolute zero in terms of making prices go zoom. I've mentioned in the past that when JOLTS is paired up with another number it tends to do better than when it's alone (and given the history of the CB number, it might as well be alone today). The last 3 months have produced 19, 21, and 8 pips. 19 was paired with one of the ISM numbers, 21 was all by its lonesome, and 8 was linked with those University of Michigan numbers. So most of my beliefs about JOLTS were crashed upon the shoreline of reality over the last 3 months. But again, we find ourselves in a situation where we have very little to work with earlier in the week, so maybe JOLTS overperforms today. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on it. After JOLTS we get Fed Speak at 12:00, 3:00 and 5:10 p.m., and that API Oil Report at 4:30. So it's JOLTS or nothing, for today anyway.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The morning session is quiet aside from all those Manufacturing PMI numbers dropping: Spain 3:15, Switzerland 3:30, Italy 3:45, France 3:50, Germany 3:55, Eurozone 4:00, Great Britain 4:40, and Canada 9:30 a.m. A Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. At 5:30 a.m. Great Britain also releases the minutes and a Statement regarding their last Interest Rate meeting. Once again it's a report and not a number, but it could do some damage to your trades so be aware it's lurking out there. And there is nothing else, morning or evening, designed to move prices around.
USA Session: We get our once a month ADP Non Farm Employment Change number. This is the one that always comes out before the NFP, and while it rarely moves charts more than a pip or two, it does give us a peek at what to expect on Friday (if the number even drops on Friday...more on that in a bit). We follow the ADP with Retail Sales at 8:30, and this is the Retail Sales number that should have dropped 2 weeks ago. RS rarely generates any excitement on the charts when it's on time, so I doubt this late version will do much of anything. Fed Speak at 9:05 and 9:10, the "fake" Manufacturing PMI drops at 9:45, followed by the "real" ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00. That's the one that moves things around post-drop, so be ready. That Ward's Total Vehicle Sales number floats around all day until someone in the Ward's office hits "send" on a keyboard, so pass, and Crude Oil drops at 10:30.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again we get a session with a bunch of country-specific numbers no one cares about, and I'm presuming the only reason these are seeing daylight today is we are closing in on Good Friday and most of Europe is already closing up shop for the long weekend. So literally nothing will be found here today that is worth risking your money on a trade.
USA Session: We start with that Challenger Job Cuts number that comes out at 7:00 a.m. eastern, an hour before anyone on the East Coast even bothers to turn on their trading terminals, making this a monthly Easy Pass. We then get the Weekly Unemployment number at 8:30, along with a Trade Balance number no one pays attention to. As long as Weekly Unemployment stays mired in the 200K range we likely won't see any real price action. But once it gets to 250k or higher, then we should see some real fireworks. So watch the number and if it's still in the low 200's, pass. NatGas closes us out at 10:30.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Today is Good Friday, arguably the holiest of Christian holidays. As such, all of Europe is closed EXCEPT for the French, who release a French Industrial Production m/m number that no one is going to read or trade. There aren't even any Japanese reports. So aside from the French number, it's a day off for everyone who trades the A/L session.
USA Session: Forget the Final Services PMI number at 9:30. No one cares. The real question is, will the Non Farm Payroll and related numbers drop at 8:30 as scheduled? My guess is yes, simply because we've run into this situation in 2021 and 2023 when the NFP collided with Good Friday and the NFP won both times. So even though the vast majority of the trading world is MIA, including in the USA, where anyone with any amount of seniority at any trading desk in the country took today off. But those numbers will drop, barring some sudden change of heart over the next 7 days. But will they make any sort of a splash? Maybe. The lack of volume means anyone who is present today (willingly or otherwise) and who controls a large account, could use that account to muscle prices in whatever direction they choose. So if you are trading today, be careful and keep an eye peeled for anything that looks like a rogue trader or two who might be up to something tricky (and thus profitable).
See you next week.
Jeff
