Hi Folks.
Welcome to a shorter version of the Forecast than you may be used to. Not because I'm in a hurry and skipping anything important. It's because we have 6 trading days that make up this calendar (I count Sunday night as a separate day) and out of those 6, this week 4 of them absolutely suck. I can sum up the entire day with one word: Pass. So let's get into it so we can get to the good days buried in the middle.
SUNDAY: 4 entries. 3 are Fed Speak. 2 happen before the markets open. The last entry is Japanese Retail Sales y/y at 7:30 p.m. my time. With 16, 3, and 4 being the pip results for the last three releases, we start off using a word that's going to show up a lot this week: Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: 17 entries, not counting Bank Holidays, and my guess is added all together they won't generate 20 pips between them. A lot of local numbers (like German Import Prices and Spanish Flash CPI). These numbers when they appear collectively as an EU number rarely crack 10 pips. There is no way the component numbers do any better. But we do have Lagarde speaking at 1:30 p.m. my time at some Euro Central Bank shindig. So be aware she's out there talking about who knows what. Just don't let her torpedo your trades.
USA Session: For the second, or maybe even third consecutive week, we start with an empty slate. No numbers, no reports, no Fed Speak. Just nuthin'.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Another day very similar to yesterday in that the fine folks over at FF jammed the day full of numbers from EU member countries, which we can safely ignore. But at 2:00 a.m. Great Britain issues their Final GDP q/q, and that one has generated 23, 26, and 16 pips over the last 3 quarters. Since two out of the three releases crossed my 20 pip line, and we have a decided lack of other trading options not only today but for the rest of the week, this is one you should keep an eye on simply because you're out of options otherwise. The Canadians release their GDP number at 8:30 a.m., and this one posted 10,10, and 23 over the last 3 months. I'm guessing that the number not only missing to the downside but also ending up in negative territory had a lot to do with that 23. So keep an eye on the number itself. If it lands squarely on the projected number or even does a little better than expected, you likely won't see much. But another miss to the downside and into negative territory could trigger some decent price action for the second month in a row. The rest of the session is just dumpster filler numbers, including the Tankan Manufacturing Index numbers, which I thought might be the Japanese version of the ISM, but these rarely crack 10 pips after release, which is not very ISM-like. So Pass on the lot of them.
USA Session: Several numbers, all of them unworthy of mention. But let me mention them anyway, at least briefly. 2 Housing Price Index numbers at 9:00. Pass. Chicago PMI at 9:45. Pass. Conference Board Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 a.m. That CBCC should be a Yellow report as the market considers it worthless. And the downgrade of JOLTS from Red to Beige is a step in the right direction, but I suspect a Yellow folder is in its near future as well. Pass on both. Finally, we close at 4:30 with that API Oil Report after everybody has gone home for the day. Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: A couple of more or less invisible numbers start us off, and lead to the monthly Final Manufacturing PMI numbers across the A/L landscape: Spain at 3:15, Switzerland at 3:30, Italy at 3:45, France at 3:50, Germany at 3:55, Eurozone at 4:00, and Great Britain at 4:30 (no Canada today as they have a banking holiday). Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. The 5:00 a.m. Eurozone CPI Flash numbers rarely, if ever, crack the 10-12 pip range so Pass on those. And the evening numbers are once again dumpster fire fuel. The only other entry worthy of note is that there is a group of high ranking Fed-type people from around the world are gathering in Sintra, Portugal. So at 9:00 a.m. we have Macklem from Canada, Lagarde from the EU and Bailey from the Bank of England all set to speak at that event. We can't trade it but one or more of them could say something stupid that riles up the markets. So be aware they are out there.
USA Session: We start at 5:30 a.m. with the Challenger Job Cuts, which no one will be awake to trade in the US. Pass. We follow that up with the ADP Non-Farm Employment change, which is also universally ignored for trading purposes but gives us a hint which direction the NFP will point Thursday morning. Pass. Our newly minted Fed Head Warsh will join all the other Fed Heads in Sintra at 9:00 a.m. for that little gab fest. So be aware. At 9:45 a.m we get the fake Final Manufacturing Index number, followed at 10:00 a.m. by the real ISM Manufacturing Index, which is the one traders actually pay attention to. So be ready for that one as it's about the only thing going on until tomorrow that is worthy of trading. Crude Oil at 10:30 could be interesting because as noted last week it was just a matter of time before Iran started aiming drones at tankers in the Straits once again, causing Oil prices to spike. So Oil traders should have some fun with this one. Lastly we have the Omdia Total Vehicle Sales number as a floater, and I only mention it because for the last 20+ years its been the Wards Total Vehicle Sales number. I don't know if Wards sold out or just changed their name, but one thing that remained the same is their unwillingness or inability to tell us in advance when the number would drop. So Pass.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Another morning session full of EU-member state individual numbers, which just don't fire anyone up. The Swiss release their CPI at 2:30 a.m. but with results of 18, 6, and 12 over the last 3 months this one is still in the minor leagues in terms of being a major number worth watching. And for a change, we don't have an evening session. Just the early numbers.
USA Session: Yes, we are talking about the Thursday session, so no need to go back and double-check anything: the only numbers worth watching today are the Non-Farm Payroll numbers at 8:30. Tomorrow (Friday) is July 3rd, so the USA is closed for business in anticipation of its 250th Birthday Celebration on Saturday, July 4th. That means we either get the NFP today or wait an extra week. The powers that be chose today. It's the NFP. One of the 3 High Holy Days of trading. So be ready a day early for this one. And feel free to ignore Factory Orders at 10:00 (everyone else does, all of the time) and NatGas at 10:30 (unless you trade NatGas).
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: The A/L session closes the PMI book today with all the Final Service PMI numbers from the EU member states (and the EU itself and Great Britain). Spain at 3:15, Italy at 3:45, France at 3:50, Germany at 3:55, the Eurozone at 4:00 and Great Britain at 4:30. Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. The rest of the morning is Fed Speak with Lagarde speaking in France at 4:00 a.m., and Nagel from the German Buba and Bailey from the Bank of England also speaking in France at 11:00 a.m. my time. You can't do anything with it but it can destroy a good trade (Fed Speak, I mean) so be aware it's out there.
USA Session: A day off in anticipation of the big 250th Birthday bash tomorrow. I was a 15 year old boy when we celebrated the 200th in 1976, and I was completely invested in all the parties and fireworks. Now I'm a 65 year old man and all I ask is that you wrap up the noisy parts by 10 p.m. so I can get to sleep on time. What a difference half a century makes.
See you back here next week assuming I'm not taken out by a malfunctioning Roman Candle.
Jeff
