Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast, and I can promise in advance it's going to be briefer than most. Not a whole lot to work with this week.
SUNDAY: Nothing. Okay, there is one New Zealand number dropping at 9:00 p.m. (Credit Card Spending) but since it averages about 5 pips of movement in the hour after release, let's just stick with nothing and move on.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: And we follow that stellar start on Sunday with a bunch of nopes on Monday. Swiss PPI at 2:30 a.m.? Nope. German ifo Business Climate at 4:00 a.m.? Nope. Belgian NBB Business Climate? Well, no, Nope. And then a bunch of Fed Speak, none of it of any interest except maybe Lagarde at 12:30 p.m., speaking in D.C. at some Economics gathering. Still nothing we can do with Fed Speak, so Nope.
USA Session: Fed Speak at 8:00 a.m. and a week old Factory Orders number at 10:00, said Factory Orders number never being something either Forex or Futures cares about one iota. So Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: 6:00 a.m. UK CBI Realized Sales number usually comes and goes without notice and there is no reason to expect any different this time, so Pass. The Brits do have their Monetary Policy Report Hearings regarding the last Interest Rate decision, but not much we can do with hearings except know they are ongoing and if you are trading the GBP in any capacity, you could be in for a surprise at some point (good or bad surprise remains to be seen). Japan's SPPI at 6:50 p.m. is a bit of an enigma. 3 & 2 months ago the number generated 6 and 10 pips while nailing the expected number on the head. Then last month against an expectation of 2.7% it posted 2.6% and the Yen dropped 40 pips in 15 minutes. I went back and looked at the October number which missed by 2/10ths of a % and it posted a 5 pip move in the 15 minutes. So why did the SPPI wake the Yen up last month? I don't know. Will it happen again? I don't know. But it might be worth paying attention to this one just in case last month was the start of some newfound respect for the SPPI amongst Yen traders. From there we move into the Australian CPI m/m numbers at 7:30 p.m., and they are there to remind us only the US and UK CPI numbers really matter (previous 3 month pip count being 5, 5, and 9).
USA Session: 15 calendar entries for today's session and they are all pretty much crap from start to finish. Rather than point out the individual crappiness of each entry, let me point out that there are 6 Fed Speak entries, President Trump gives the State of the Union address at 9:00 p.m., which is always entertaining but never tradeable, and the balance are reports that simply don't move the price needle much or at all, ever. So yet again another session that looks good from a quantity standpoint but fails a quality inspection.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: We start with the Bank of Japan Core CPI number, which has been going the wrong way the last 3 months with 15, 14 and 12 pips. If that number were ascending instead I might be interested. But it looks like a 10 pip move over 30 minutes might be on tap, so Pass. The rest of the morning session looks equally depressing, as does the evening session. I mentioned this would likely be a short Forecast because I read through the calendar when I first sat down, and three straight days of dreck like this only means I get to save a little time cranking out this forecast. From a trading standpoint, this sucks.
USA Session: Fed Speak at 9:30 a.m., followed by Crude Oil at 10:30, then more Fed Speak at 11:00 and 1:20. Wow. Just, wow.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Lagarde is back in front of a mic at 3:30 a.m., this time testifying in front of the EU Parliament in Brussels. This is more or less equal to Powell (or the next guy who is anxiously waiting in the wings) testifying in front of the Senate. Something could happen but there is no way to know what or when. Pass. The rest of the morning numbers are garbage, and we have a British Fed Clown speaking at 4:00 a.m. Pass on the lot. In the evening session, Tokyo releases its Core CPI number at 6:30 p.m. The previous three numbers generated were 12, 46 and 24. Don't get excited about the 46 number. It happened on Christmas Day (in the evening when volume was almost nonexistent so one big trade could really shove things around a bit, as it did). But last month's 24 wasn't bad, so maybe keep an eye on this one. I'm not ready to elevate them to the level of the US and the UK, but another couple of numbers in the mid-20s or beyond will probably make that happen. The rest of the night is entirely forgettable.
USA Session: Unemployment at 8:30 a.m., NatGas at 10:30 a.m., and Fed Speak in the middle at 10:00. An absolutely forgettable set of entries yet again. Pass.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: I've mentioned before that when the calendar starts looking extremely weak, the FF people break out their big guns (yes, I'm being sarcastic) and start posting numbers like German CPI and French GDP, which do absolutely nothing for price action on the EU pairs. That's the entire morning session, really, including Canadian GDP m/m at 8:30 a.m. The CAD number used to be a fairly reliable source of decent trades but lately has been in a slump, with numbers like 16 and 13 (on numbers that hit the target) 2-3 months back. But last month the number missed by 1/10th and we saw the CAD GDP of old throw up a 32 pip drop in the CAD (the USD went up 32 pips, for those of you confused by the 32 pip direction. So keep an eye on the actual number as at least one month recently the miss became important and the source of the trade fuel.
USA Session: At 8:30 we get the 2 weeks late PPI numbers. They usually don't do much when they drop hot on the heels of the CPI numbers. 2 weeks late? It's anyone's guess, but I'm guessing the market may not care a lot due to the age of the data. On the other hand, this has been the worst week for news in a while and the market is always looking for a reason to celebrate, so maybe this one gets a little more love than it deserves. So pay attention. This might be your one and only shot at a decent news-based trade this week, because the 9:45 Chicago PMI and the 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending numbers, 25 days late for one and what, 4 months late for the other? They aren't going to be the source of any great trading stories this weekend. So it will likely be PPI or Bust today.
That's all there is. See you next week.
Jeff
