Hi Folks.
It's finally here: the last full week of August. And honestly, it got here quicker than I anticipated. In fact, given that the really hot weather started in April of this year (as opposed to late May, early June) this summer has actually flown by at breakneck speed. And I, for one, am not complaining. "They" say that as you get older you appreciate hot weather more. I don't know who "they" are, but I do know I'm still not old enough to care much for the heat. I'm still looking forward to pulling some sweatshirts out of the box they stay in about 10 months a year and getting some good use out of them.
And because we are at the end of August, it also means volume and volatility pretty much across the board have dropped to some pretty low levels. That makes trading a lot tougher than during normal times, so if you're thinking about taking a break to recharge your batteries, this is the time to do so without any fear of missing out on great trades. I am taking some time off starting today (Friday, when I'm writing this) and will return full time the Tuesday after Labor Day, which I believe is September 8. I will still be around and able to answer emails if something IMPORTANT should arise, but aside from that I'm turning the charts off for trading purposes and seeing if there is an actual life out there that doesn't involve boxes and signal bands.
But I will be knocking out this Econ Forecast as usual, mostly because it's become a habit and also because I expect it won't exactly take much time, given the lack of anything interesting showing up in terms of news over the next 2 weeks.
So let's get on with the show.
SUNDAY: 2 reports total, both from Japan and both at 6:45. The names are irrelevant. Only the pip count matters and over the last 3 months this pair has generated 3, 11, and 1 pip in the 15 minutes after release. Wait a minute. One pip? One lousy pip in 15 minutes? This is a textbook example of why newly minted Fed Head Warsh complains the state of economic news is a disaster, or words to that effect. I shouldn't have to say it, but I will. Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: 2 entries. Canadian Corporate Profits at 8:30 a.m. (10, 13, and 7 pips) and Australian Monetary Policy Minutes from their last Rate Meeting means today/tonight should be passed entirely. Sleep in or go to bed early. You need your rest.
USA Session: Treasury Secretary Bessent has a "tentative" speech/talk set today to speak on the incoming Iranian sanctions. Tentative means we can't do much with it but check the calendar early Monday morning because they may have firmed up a time by then. You can't really trade it but at least know it's out there when you are trading.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Just garbage from start to finish, and that includes the 9:30 p.m. Australian CPI number. It's not the US or UK CPI, so on that alone you can pass, but the last 3 pip results of 7, 6, and 8 pips should settle the matter. Pass on the lot.
USA Session: A lot of "stuff" but none of it excites. The ADP Weekly Unemployment thing drops at 8:15 a.m. and they aren't even bothering with a Forecast number. It doesn't matter. This is the Rodney Dangerfield of economic reports. It gets no respect, no respect at all from traders anywhere. Then we get 2 Housing numbers at 9 and one at 10. No one cares. The Richmond Manufacturing Index and a universally ignored Consumer Confidence number also hit at 10, and we close the day at 4:30 with that Weekly API Oil Report after the markets have all but closed. In the immortal words of Don Shula to Dan Marino, Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The only good thing I can say about these two sessions is that they are brief today. 6 numbers total and not a single one will be worth more than 5-6 pips once released. I don't know if things will perk up numbers-wise in September, but I don't think they can get much worse.
USA Session: 7 numbers total at 8:30 but the only two that matter are the Core PCE and Preliminary GDP q/q. If there is going to be any noticeable price action it will come from these two reports. But the PCE has only shown 14, 24, and 15 pips in the 30 minutes after the drop, while the GDP has posted 15, 16 and 16. So neither one of these alone does much any longer (and the May report for both was when they dropped same day/same time and that was the 15 pip move). So in spite of all the "stuff" on calendar, I just don't see this market making a fuss over these numbers, not at the end of August with volume down the way it is. Crude Oil is at 10:30 for Oil traders, and that may be the only bright light on the entire calendar this week for the US session.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Yet another craptastic day for the A/L session, with a bunch of third tier numbers just taking up space. This includes the Tokyo CPI m/m number at 7:30 p.m., which is still inexplicably listed as a Beige Folder number. The last 3 months saw 12, 3, and 6 pips, so there must be some other reason FF holds this one in such high esteem, because producing numbers that make prices go zoom is not one of its features.
USA Session: The US numbers are equally useless, although once again FF has elevated the Weekly Unemployment number to Beige Folder status as well. This one generated 11, 21, and 9 pips the last 3 weeks, but before you get excited about that 21 number, that week it was paired with the PPI which came in at 0.00% meaning no inflation in the wholesale sector, and I feel pretty confident saying PPI was behind every single pip in that move. NatGas drops at 10:30 for you Gas traders, and the Fed's Jackson Hole Wyoming 3 Day Hideaway starts today. There are usually press releases and the odd Q&A with the press corps during this little vacation, but like all things Fed, there just isn't much we can do with any of it except stay out of trades once we know one or more of them is running their mouths.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Today is one of those days when FF pads the calendar with a bunch of EU-member country-specific numbers, like German Import Prices or French Consumer Spending. None of these numbers are designed to move the chart numbers around. They just take up space. The only number worth mentioning is the Canadian GDP number at 8:30, but it's last 3 pip counts landed at 13, 14, and 23. The 23 showed up the day the Canadian GDP posted a -.01% result, the first negative GDP number Canada has posted in 2026. So it took a little more heat than all the other numbers that land in the .1% to .3% range. Pass.
USA Session: We lead off with the Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m., which is another report found on the Universally Ignored by Traders Worldwide list. Pass. At 10 we have both Fed Head Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole, along with a number we only see once a year: Preliminary Payrolls Benchmark Provision which is a stupid way to say they make an annual adjustment to the NFP number and today is the day that happens. My charts only went back far enough I could check last years number (21 pips) and the 2024 number (51 pips) so maybe this one pushes things around a little. As long as it drops at 10:00 a.m. on the dot, any immediate price moves will be due to that number (and probably not the Revised UofM numbers which haven't been north of 18 pips in several months) and well before Warsh even has time to say "Good Morning". So just maybe we close out what is typically the worst Friday in the worst week of the worst month for trading with a decent number to trade. I guess we'll know the answer to that one around 10:01.
So that brings us to the end of the last full week of August's Econ Forecast. Next week we'll be ending the week in September and that means a potential return to normalcy in the next few days. Keep your fingers crossed and I'll see you back here next week.
Jeff
