Hi Friend

Yesterday should have been my last email on Little Acorns International but there has been one specific question that has come into my inbox a few times. I assure you though, this is the final email on this except for maybe an update in the future.

The question (well more like a statement really in the way it is normally phrased) :

Simple answer NO and there's a bunch of reasons why, here are just a few:

1) 🤑 55 winning months out of 57 (96% win rate)! That is over 4 years!

2) One losing month of -3.5 points and another of -0.3 points This very much demonstrates a strategy that is reliable and very unlikely to subject your bank to large dips.

3) Longest losing streak since the beginning (4 years now remember) 5 races on the bounce. 

Six bets advised by the system (that was quite a busy evening) I didn't get on the second because I was on a phone call. I wish I had got on it now because it was a winning bet but, that's life.

 

Three of the bets (including the one I wasn't on) were winning bets. Three of them were losing bets. 

The three losing bets came one after the other. The third, fourth and fifth bet of the evening. I'm betting £10 units so (ignoring the second bet that I didn't get on of course). 

I found myself at one point £20 down i.e. +£10 bet one, -£30 bets 3, 4 and 5. Bet six came in and I ended with a small profit of £1.10 (should have been £11.10). 

This is because I use a very simple system to get my money back on losers. I don't strictly follow the Fibonacci staking plan advised which would have seen me bet as follows:

£10, £10, £10, £10, £20, £30 (and would have resulted in a £20.70 profit on the evening). Instead I bet £10, (missed one) £10, £10, £10 and £30. 

Well actually it is mostly to do with how my brain functions. I get quickly and easily confused (last night I missed a bet because I was on a phone call that I couldn't get off). I don't have the kind of brain that allows me to multi-task and focus on two things at the same time. 

But if you do miss a bet or two with this it doesn't matter. The selection system is good enough that you can miss whole days (well evenings) and it will not impact on profitability.

I like to mull things over and have time to think, so for me, the simple thing is to use a "am I winning, am I losing" approach. My approach is probably way more dangerous than following the advised Fibonacci system (Oh, I am such a rebel) and based on the evidence of yesterday, I think I will start doing what the system suggests and have more faith in their selection process moving forward.

Let me break it down for you. These are lay bets on really short priced horse. The average lay is at odds of 1.8 if you take it over the whole 4 years. I think of it in terms of evens bets for ease. I assume I am going to win or lose my stake. In truth that is a very basic approach - for example, bet number six last night got beaten (so a win for me) at odds of 1.59. 

My stake was £30, my liability was £17.70. Had that horse won the race and my bet lost - I would be carrying over a £46 loss. If, the very next bet also lost (remember the longest losing streak in 4 years has been 5 on the bounce) I would have a loss of (let's assume I got on at evens on the next one) around £96. Call it £100 but to have that loss I would need to see the record number of losers in 4 years matched.

5) It didn't happen. The truth is, if you had backed all 6 selections last night at level stakes you'd still be in profit. Here are the odds I got on the 5 bets I made yesterday, and now, let's assume all bets were covered and at level stakes only (commission on winning bets has been taken off):

1.59       Won  £10 stake win £9.80              (£1.10)
2.08       Lost   £10 stake lose - £10.80         (-£8.70)
1.75       Lost   £10  stake lose -£7.50          (£2.10) 
2            Lost   £10 stake lose -£10              (£9.60)
Missed   Won  £10 stake win £9.80             (£19.60)
1.9         Won  £10 stake win £9.80             (£9.80)

Today I start off at £10 again. This "base" stake will only be adjusted at the beginning of November - hopefully upwards a little (that's really conservative compounding).

This system is not only 4 years old now, it is simple (you get an email around 20 to 30 minutes ahead of the next bet) you can do it on your smart phone whilst watching telly using the Betfair or Betdaq Exchange (also apparently Smarkets). And, it is based on the exact same selection process that the original Little Acorns system (UK Racing) is based on but you get even better results because not too many Europeans do USA racing. 

Happy Punting!

- The original, UK racing based Little Acorns first went live in 2003 - in a previous email I said 2008, I was wrong by 5 years!

- If you have signed up for this already - well done and I/m sorry if you feel offended that I wrote to you again and didn't know you were already in. 

- Bookie accounts shut down? No problem. All done on the exchange.