Remember, We've Never Been Here Before!
I can't tell you what is going to happen with the Bitcoin scaling debate. No-one has the answer. The scaling debate is now approaching its D-Day (that is Deadline Day). The decision, one way or another, needs to be made and even now, when we are so close to that all important 1st August deadline, nobody really has a clue about what is going to happen.
There are 3 possible scenarios that I will give you in absolute simple detail before I direct you to the technical stuff.
1) Nothing really happens at all. Enough of the key players decide to go the same way and things pretty much go on as always until, a little later in the year, the Bitcoin block size increases. There is no Blockchain split and only one version of bitcoin goes on into the future until some other bright spark stirs it all up again. Then, a few days after 1st August, we all end up wondering what all the fuzz was about.
2) There is, somehow, no consensus at all and the Bitcoin Blockchain splits into two and two versions of Bitcoin start to exist. One of them over (hopefully) a fairly short period of time does not get any real support and dies. You, as a holder of Bitcoin have a short period where you hold both coins and then one of them ceases to have any value and disappears. If, as is likely, the original CORE Bitcoin continues and is the one to survive then it all eventually goes back to normal and moves from strength to strength.
3) There is no consensus and two separate Bitcoins emerge and both survive (exactly as happened with Ethereum when Ethereum Classic emerged and both altcoins went on down a separate path.
So, where's the danger? Well for that, I am going to refer you to the latest communication from Bitcoin.org (the guys from Bitcoin Core). Please read this carefully so that you know what to do around the potential split date:
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