I'm off to the Northumberland Plate festival today at my local haunt...
Needless to say, I've been hard at graft this week, what with the unprecedented amount of interest in my recent training webinar on how to find your own profitable bets (if you missed it, you can watch the replay here).
So, I think I've earned an afternoon in the sun, and a few "fun" wagers. Besides, I managed to nab a few free tickets, so it would be rude not to!
I've had a good peruse of the card, and arrived at a shortlist of my fancies for the day, as follows...
13:50 Betfair Exchange Handicap
Two of interest for me in this race, Staxton and Von Blucher. The former likes to run from the front, and is drawn high which at Newcastle seems to be a good thing.
However, he doesn't have much experience on the AW, so I'm tempted to side with the latter, who is 2-4 at today's conditions, and looks a value play at the current price.
Von Blucher 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 generally
14:25 Chipchase Stakes
Hard to look past Invincible Army based on his group 2 win at York last month, but the price is woefully short, so I'm going to have a crack at Island Of Life, who has won over C&D before, and ran better last time out that the bare form would suggest.
Island Of Life 0.5pt e/w @ 8/1 bet365
15:00 Northumberland Vase Handicap
Busy Street has a record of 31231 on the AW, and although today's task is a tough one, looks exceptional value at time of writing. Theglasgowwarrior is another interesting player, and the extra distance may give him the chance to get his head in front.
Busy Street 0.5pt e/w @ 18/1 generally Theglasgowwarrior 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 generally
15:35 Northumberland Plate Handicap
The main event, and plenty of runners with potential. A brief glance at the form would suggest Kings Advice, who sports an impressive 6-6 record. However, those were all easier, and there's definately a question mark over this course & distance.
Dubawi Fifty and Bartholomeu Dias both caught my eye, as they have proven form at this class & course, and are likely pace-setters which should stand them in good stead.
Dubawi Fifty 0.5pt e/w @ 11/1 Bartholomeu Dias 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1
(Skybet, BF Sportsbook & Paddy Power all offering 6 places)
16:10 Betfair Handicap
Four potential favourites in this one, but the conditions look to suit Rashadan above the rest. In addition, the combination of trainer Hugo Palmer, and jockey Ben Curtis make a potent mix, so he gets the nod.
Archive is also interesting at a tasty price, although the competition may well prove too good for him this time round.
Rashadan 1pt win @ 11/2 with totesport
16:45 EBF Novice Stakes
Newcomer Hurcle has the pedigree, and could well prove too good for the others on his debut. That being said, it's leaving a lot up to chance, and at the current price not worth it in my opinion.
A better option may be Mrs Bouquet, who already has two runs under her belt, and a win at this course & distance too.
Mrs Bouquet 1pt win @ 9/2 generally
17:15 Betfair Casino Handicap
At the front end of the market, Diocles Of Rome stands out with an impressive win last time out, and solid form on the AW.
Elsewhere, Weld Al Emarat has an interesting profile; 4-6 on the sand, and looking back in form based on his run at Redcar last week.
Diocles Of Rome 1pt win @ 4/1 bet365 Weld Al Emarat 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 bet365
Hopefully we can bag a win or two, but of course Lady Luck plays a big role when it comes to a single days betting...
So if you follow me in, be sure to take this into account when deciding how much to stake.
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