Good Morning, Friend,

Today I've had a look at the main event from Catterick, the Yorkshire Grand National. It looks a mediocre renewal and I think my fancy will either hack up if the headgear works, or he's on the downgrade and will struggle. (you have been warned!) It's that sort of race where they all have various questions, but in I go...

2.50 Catt- Sams Adventure – 2 point win – 5/1 (bet365) 9/2 (gen)

Tip write up…

Sam’s Adventure – a risky one to some degree, as if he runs to his best he just wins in these conditions/his mark, but equally he could not be sighted, but such is the poor quality of this renewal, even at 9/2 I’m happy to wade in. I wouldn’t be going near him/or the race, had Brian not gone for the 1st Visor – that, combined with his favourite heavy going (for the first time since Dec 2020/Jan 21) are the reasons for why he ‘could’ bounce back here, and if he retains any ability, he will pulverise these – if the headgear does it’s job. He won in 1st CP way back when and Brian’s SkyBet Chase winner last season won in 1st Blinkers, having been out of form, a similarly ageing horse getting his own ideas about the game.

He’s a former Eider winner, and a Haydock heavy slogger. He’s the only horse in the field with heavy ground chase wins to his name, and he’s now very well handicapped (but for a reason). He hasn’t worn headgear on his two return runs to date, the first of which was promising enough I thought, on lively enough ground for him. He UR too far out last time to know, but at least he didn’t have a hard race, so the 13 day return doesn’t concern me. This lot simply won’t live with him if on a going day, and as such, in I go.

I didn’t like the rest at the odds, for all not many shock winners in this. Snowden’s unexposed mare may take this but short enough for me, first go over a marathon trip and in a bog to boot – if she dourly stays on to victory here, then fair play – some efforts suggest she’s worth a go over a marathon, but both trip and ground are unknowns – they’re reasons for improvement of course, but too short in that context to these eyes. Eclair can be a bit in and out and there could be stronger stayers in here, again I wasn’t sure she wants a bog but can beat me at 3s. Bryony gets on well with her and a big run wouldn’t be a surprise, but she’s another who can throw in a moody effort. Sam's has far more marathon class, but has to show it. It’s one of those races! The others have plenty of questions for me also, but anything could happen!

Pace wise… Bushy may try and lead, and he’s interesting to a point in conditions back over fences, showing something LTO for the first time in a while, can he back it up, first proper go beyond 24f. The rest will slot in, but I suspect Sam’s will easily be able to track, IF the headgear has the desired effect. Hopefully he's travelling strongly early on, lobbing along. If so, we'll have some fun. If not, we won't!

Good luck with any bets,

Josh