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Day 1 is usually a blowout for me but Tiger Roll (16s/27 BFSP) and Tully East (12s,9.32 BFSP) ensured that whatever happens now, Members and Festival Subscribers are guaranteed +5 points profit from the week.
Day 1: 5 tips / 2 winners / 4 placed horses / +25 points (more at BFSP)
Such a good Day 1, when it's usually atrocious,means one of two things- Either I have peaked, and that's as good as it will get, or we could be set for our best ever Festival.
If you haven't joined then this is your final chance really. There are still three full days left plus the weekend. And you can get your money back if indeed I have peaked...
Today's tips are 9/1, 7/1, 25/1,20/1,10/1,12/1 and 28/1 and they are in races I/the stats, have done well in before.
Day 1 proved my approach is alive and kicking, with the micro angles finding some winners/monster priced placed horses also. Plenty to help you through the remaining three days. (+access over the weekend for other Members Content/Midlands National)
Now for a free look at the RSA...
2.10:
Tips
Bellshill - 1 point win - 9/1 (WH) 17/2 (bet365) 8/1 (general)
Whisper - 1/2 point win - 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (general)
Preview
A good night's sleep appears to clear the head, especially with races you are unsure on, initially at least. I must admit, when tired and bedraggled on Monday evening, after a very long day, I had put a line through Tully East- you get lazy when you are tired. ( a focus on his last two runs which seemed poor- on reflection they were decent races,and if that race was a plan,he wasn't going to run much better) With fresh eyes in the morning I decided to attack the shortlist again, and that seemed to do the trick...
And I think it may have done so with this race. I have gone from picking splinters out from some excruciating fence sitting to concluding that if Bellshill has a clear round, he wins this. He may fall/UR, but his price allows that dart in what is a pumped up Grade 2 I think. Grade 1 by name maybe, this year at least.
Bellshill...
Having looked back at the Bonus Stats, bar a Top 3 finish LTO, this one hits every single other profile point. Every one. All of the 10/10 stats etc. He also ran at Leopardstown LTO (5/25,10p last 10 years) and is trained by Mullins, 2/15,5p in the race. You can't keep a good man down and this may well get him on the board. Now, he was laboured the last day- maybe at that trip he simply couldn't lay up with them in a G1. He has form over 24f+ and on decent ground. Now, that fall LTO..
I did some digging, Mullins has sent 9 horses to the Festival who Fell last time out in the last 5 years, one won and two placed. And they were all last year, 5 runners, 1 won, 2 places. In single figure fields that improves to 1 win, 1 place, the win being Black Hercules in a chase and 'Jack Adam' who also Fell before his 2nd in the Gold Cup. I suspect this one has had some intense schooling and the better ground/longer trip/faster pace may help.
There are also a few who like to get on with it in here. I can see Ruby at his majestic best, holding him up, getting him jumping, going wide for daylight if needed, and powering up the hill late. Cue - fall at the first! :)
At that price, given everything above, I have decided I must have a go.
I have had a blank on Day 1 the last three Festivals (so yesterday was quite a pleasant surprise!) but usually have a superb Tuesday, with previous winners in all three races covered today during the last three Festivals. Here's hoping he can be another.
Now, him and Whisper are the only Grade 1 winners in this race. Well, Royal Vacation is, but not really. Might Bite is in a sense, had he not fallen.
Whisper...
Well he falls down on a few stats but is a micro qualifier, is ridden by Russel, for the in form Henderson. He has a touch of class and this feels like a very strange race where some stat or other is going to get broken.
So, he is more straightforward maybe. I wanted something on him. I have a stamina niggle over a stiff run 3m around here over fences, and I am not overly confident. But, trust in connections may prove to be wise. 7s allows a dart.
Of the rest...
Might Bite - I have decided he is too short given the questions- the track, being taken on for the lead, his jumping, his attitude (people keep telling me to avoid 'Scorpions' like the plague. A rogue, apparently- you can tell how far breeding is on my radar! Good job really, as I wouldn't have had Tiger Roll if it was) Anyway, I don't like backing horses around 7/2 or shorter generally, why the hell would I start here - the most competitive racing you can find. I would be cheating myself. So, he can beat me. Part of me thinks he might hack up, but with 25 points banked, you can enjoy them more when they do so, not carrying a penny.
French Breds have a poor record in this in the last decade, 0/25,2p, maybe that stat gets broken - it indicated the Irish/GB more stoutly bred horses are the place to focus. There are a few french breds here, maybe one wins this year. All of the others fall down on 2 or more big stats I think. A few are handicappers really and I want to avoid them.
It does feel open, but I feel rather bullish. Maybe it is the pro plus I've just consumed to get me through the morning. I always struggle to sleep this week, must be the adrenaline.
So, those two will do in what feels an open renewal. If Bellshill doesn't make errors I think he is the most likely winner, based on my approach - and in truth even ignoring it and just looking at the horses in a more 'traditional' way, he stands out. If he hadn't fallen LTO I suspect he would be 2-4 points shorter here.
***
Finally, there are three TTP Members stats picks at Huntingdon, of interest:
3.05 My Cousin Rachel ; 3.45- Zante ; 4.25 Rockinrollrambo. We shall see if any of those out-run their lofty odds.
You can get access to all that, + my tips in the Coral Cup + Fred Winter + micro angles HERE>>>
All the best , Josh
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