Hello Friend

I hope you had a better weekend on the punting front that I did. My word.

To try and add some cheer, I have shared Adam's Norman's latest 'Racing Round-Up', from his recent trips to Carlisle and Aintree.

There are plenty of paddock nuggets to absorb - horses' who were fit, who were not, ones to keep an eye on in short term, ones who may need time, others who one day will improve for a fence, and so on.

It really is valuable insight and is worth reading and adding notes to your trackers. This info will pay one day, even next season or the one after. You can find that down below, but before that...

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A weekend to forget...

I must admit, firing out nine losing 'tips' between myself and Adam since race 1 on Friday wasn't part of my grand plan! Apologies.

I had desperately wanted a decent weekend before I reopen the doors to the winter offering, but alas, most of them ran as if we'd never analysed a horse-race before in our lives! Typical.

My efforts in particular were rather disappointing. Four of mine, all experienced enough, possibly put in the worst round of jumping in their lives. Odd. Very odd. Maybe the new white paint scared them, I don't know.

Another was back-peddling quickly when he came down. Most of them were out the back of the tv with over half the race to go, my misery compounded by dodgy assessments of the eventual winners.

It really was atrocious stuff and I didn't even deserve a commiserations drink. This game is tough at the best of times, most 'tipsters' of course will fire out 75-85 losers per 100 bets, the winners more than making up for it, but if you want to succeed long term, you have to be hard on yourself, learn lessons, work harder and endeavour to do better next time. It wasn't good enough, end of. I'll be spending some time re-watching replays and working out what went wrong.

There were some positives within the content in the last three days, but overall, I'm far from happy as I sit here typing. But, on we stride. Still, in theory at least, there should be a few winners in the next month. They usually follow after a few losing darts.

Tomorrow I have another free report for you, with a look at chases/handicap chases, and a useful 'way in' to profiting long term - after my weekend, I should give it another ready myself!

The doors to my 'winter season' will open on Thursday, with a 30 day trial and a 30 day money back guarantee after that - so, 60 days in which to jump in and see if we can do a better job than the weekend that's just gone! I'm confident we will but that's for us to prove - you'll have the opportunity to put our daily content to the test.

For now, over to Adam's Racing Round-Up

Carlisle (20th Oct)

We finally got the first day’s rain in what is probably more than six months – just a shame it was on raceday, what a difference from last week’s warm sun. At least the horses declared on better going stood their ground despite it turning soft on the hurdles and good to soft on the chase course. Fair to say many didn’t handle it too well though.

I’ve been surprised at how fit and forward Stuart Coltherd has much of his string right now and he almost bagged a double on the day, Grand Voyage going down narrowly in the opener to an Emmet Mullins raider. Grand Voyage isn’t a bad type at all and has done nothing but improve from a low base, surely enjoying the extra juice in the ground. The problem with this run is that the pair came clear with So Scottish probably winning a shade cosily, but I’ve no reason to doubt that Grand Voyage has run to at least 125, so let’s see what the assessor makes of it. The winner has a nice way of using himself and could turn out to be pretty useful when strengthening up as he looked a bit disorganised at times.

Coltherd made no mistake later on when Cooper’s Cross won readily from a field that had an early season look to it – the unexposed seven year old looking really fit and well. I first saw this horse last October and he was a long way behind where he is now. He jumps and travels well and although he has won at Sedgey, I’d be inclined to think he could be better right-handed as he jumped that way on occasions last term. He was five times a non-runner so may have been suffering intermittent lameness, who knows. Unfortunately he’ll get 9-10lb for this easy win but he’s one I’ve always liked.

It wouldn’t surprise me if this works out okay – runner-up Croagh Patrick still looked on the burly side but much improved from Hexham 12 days ago… a consistent type ready to win again. Maninsane is a better looking horse than his rating suggests, and he travelled well before finishing tamely – this was his first go at the trip and it looks like he didn’t get home in the conditions. Road Warrior looked on good terms with himself and there’s a race for him back at his favourite track in a fortnight’s time.

The novice hurdle featured three rather nice types who had recorded decent figures in Irish Points, Maximilian justifying strong support to win nicely under a typically textbook Hughes ride. Quinlan, by contrast, was a bit disappointing on the strong finishing runner-up Harjo, although it could be that the horse took a blow when losing his pitch in the dip. However, he looked the fittest of the bunch and I’d expect him to win next time if he’s ever going to do so – the Longsdon horses don’t always hold their form.

I wasn’t massively taken by Get Up Mush –  the Skelton novices I’ve seen thus far have been some of the weaker members of the team. I’d expect the Getaway gelding to need a bit of time to strengthen up.

Arguably the most taking performance of the day came from Fenland Tiger, who was giving Sam and Jonny England a rare first time out winner at this stage of the season. Despite looking on the burly side, this big rangy chasing type was just too well handicapped to be given a ‘sighter’ and despite travelling like a dream saw out the new trip really well. From a decent staying family, he’s quite a nice prospect and he’s likely to have any amount in hand of the assessor at present – if they go chasing sooner rather than later he’ll be even more interesting. That’s already 12 on the board for the stable as they chase down their season’s best of 19 achieved in April.  

Aintree (23rd Oct)

Plenty of rain around overnight and in the morning but it looks as though they kept the ground as good to soft, good in places. As is often the case here it took some getting and although there were plenty of close finishes they were well strung out in behind. Fitness was the order of the day and those looking in need of a run or two were largely found wanting.

My initial thought after the first  was that Hexham scorer Tiger Jet should be given another chance after being sent on an awful long way out, in contrast to a fortnight ago when H Brooke seemed at pains to hang on to him as long as possible. This steady gallop did the horse few favours but it still seemed an impertinent move and one that failed spectacularly. It was an odd race with countless beaten a long way out.

I don’t really do veterans races but one to take from today’s may be Le Patriote, who looked to be carrying plenty of timber on his return from an enforced absence. He popped away and travelled nicely before fading from the second last – he was no certainty to stay and he failed to get home, so bear him in mind over shorter next time.

The big race saw some really nice horses come together – paddock honours going to Do Your Job with eventual winner Riders Onthe Storm not far behind. The latter looked on good terms with himself and great in his coat – odds of 16/1 were an insult to his ability and connections had been vocal enough about his chances provided the rain got into the ground.

Soldier Of Destiny was popular but looked a bit out of place in this grade, and he’ll need his sights lowering. I don’t think it suited this enthusiastic mover being held onto and more forceful tactics should see him return to form.

Stablemate Ga Law did not look at all wound up for this – he’s not filled out greatly and like his sibling may always be a little fragile… if they get him to the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in three weeks’ he could go well.

The most interesting formline of the day may come from the handicap hurdle won by Peking Rose with the right horses pulling clear. The winner and second, McCain’s A Different Kind, looked ready to roll while appealing as types to continue to pay their way. The nicest of the bunch came home next, Petit Tonnerre and Onemorefortheroad quite imposing chase types – particularly the former. He looked quite burly and defied market weakness to prove himself an interesting project for connections. Many will say the latter didn’t stay but he got there soon enough and he’s worth another crack at the trip as he’ll surely come on for the run. Bridge North is another to bear in mind – he’ll rate higher than this and he’d be interesting if sent over fences next.

The maiden hurdle is worth mentioning for the fact that the market principals all looked big chasing types in need of the run, not least the favourite Ginny’s Destiny ,who looked novicey at times in what turned into a messy race. Eventual winner Mahons Glory was the fittest in the line-up and I’d expect a very different result if this was run in a few months’ time. In that sense you’d have to give credit to Heezer Geezer who went down fighting and will benefit enormously from it.

Kinondo Kweto continues to defy the handicapper in a ‘low sun’ affected novices handicap, the interesting one being Your Own Story who looks an instinctive jumper and one to bear in mind next season when he gains strength and fills out. I’d expect him to do well this term, but will really benefit from time and I’m sure he’ll be sensibly handled.

The mares bumper wasn’t a great renewal – Bombay Sapphire looking fantastic in her coat as you’d expect emanating from Seven Barrows, I thought she was fit enough but she ran as though it was badly needed and the market drift told all. Money came for Harry Fry’s Credrojava – a trainer who targets this race – and she looked well forward for her stable debut and got the job done. It was a remarkable run though from runner-up Ruby Island who is most definitely the one to take from the race, as with many of her yard’s horses at present she looked in need of the run and not great in her coat, which has yet to be clipped out. To run so well under a penalty bodes well for her career over jumps, which she has the size for.

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Thanks for reading,

All the best,

Josh