Good Morning Friend
In today's free post I reflect on yesterday, touch on a 33/1 winner for followers of my trainer stats and have a short rant about the type of racing 'fan' who annoys me. We may have to agree to disagree on that topic. There are also a couple of 'tips' for a race at Carlisle albeit they are both weak in the market but it would be great to build on yesterday's 10/1 winning tip.
Anyway, you can flick through all of that in your own time HERE>>>>
I have also repeated the post below...
Have a great Sunday, Josh
***
Well that was a more enjoyable Saturday than has been the norm since, well, I don't know when... April?? I would take +6 points every Saturday on the 'tipping' front for sure. I, and anyone else who kept the faith (brave folk you are) have Paddy Brennan to thank for No Duffer's win, albeit I don't know how many times I, and Gerry no doubt with his 'Paddy Watch', have said that this season.
I was never destined to find the winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup - a 17 year stats buster, just leaving the age stat in tact! Great win from Frodon given his age (jumped so well) and a brilliant ride from STD who I always feel never gets the respect he deserves. He can ride. But, the two selections ran crackers and I can't ask for any more. Jumping the last and climbing the hill they both had a chance, edge of the seat stuff as I hoped Frodon would collapse into a hole- he didn't. Venetia will win a big pot with Aso- I wonder if he will stay 3m? No idea. He can hit the odd fence and in truth while young Charlie is superb (and is entitled to still be learning) I wouldn't mind seeing Coleman or Treadwell on him at some point. The front 5 or so came away from the rest and I suspect that may work out well.
What else happened..oh yes the 'systems' - the free blog systems won any followers +11 points - a couple for the 'test' portfolio- much needed.
33/1 winner anyone...
And the Trainer Track Profiles Members post... well they found No Duffer and.. Eastlake at 33/1... lifting the spirits for any systematic backers. I didn't have my usual TTP 1 point on him (£10) much to my annoyance. I wanted to see some signs of market life (none) but when No Duffer went in I threw a 'what the hell' £5 at him. It turns out he has an irregular heart-beat problem I believe - which may explain his inconsistency. I don't think connections had a clue what to expect today. Headgear was off also though, I missed that little change.
Still, a good day all round for both free content and Members content.
I have also started using the HorseRaceBase ratings and Geegeez Speed figures to list TTP stats picks that may be of more interest/to help with any shortlisting. (those top rated/top 3 rated against those ratings. So far so good)
Anyway, as always, if you like trainer stats/systems or want a list of horses to use as a guide to your days punting, you should take a 7 Day Free Trial HERE>>> (ever the salesman, sorry...but I do have to eat sometimes :) )
(the stat that found Eastlake was included in the free report also, that you would have got when joining my email list)
My Members Club may be for you. It may not. Go on, have a go... HERE>>>
(I mean 4 people unsubscribed today, even with 10/1 and 33/1 winning stats qualifiers, so you can't please everyone, but, that's why there is a free trial period...)
(oh and a quick mention for The New One... I tell you the type of National Hunt 'fan' who annoys me- it's the type who 'as soon as' he passed the winning post thought/said aloud 'he won't win a Champion Hurdle' - oh bore off, and that is being polite. If you can't enjoy an ageing star who is a very good horse in his own right, winning any graded race at Cheltenham, in that moment, I think you are in the wrong sport. Surely the horse, the story, that race there and then, comes first. Well, that is probably just me but the 'Festival is everything' mindset is one that doesn't half annoy me. I find it bloody irritating. Sorry if that is you. We will just politely agree to disagree)
***
Sunday...
TIPS
1.35 Carlisle
SAROQUE - 1 point win - 13/2 (general)
FILL THE POWER - 1/2 point win (14/1 general)
Saroque... well I can't ignore this VW chaser at what looks a decent enough price. He got really worked up the last day when I was at Haydock and it was clear he wouldn't be winning. He was agitated, sweaty, didn't look himself (I don't think that is normal behaviour) In the end he ran ok, but below his best. I think he stays this trip albeit a niggle- well he has led a Welsh National field to about 5/4 out and has stayed 3m thoroughly before. He is back down to his last winning mark. RH and undulations are fine. I also think he might try and track what could be a relentless gallop here and could just plod on over the last couple when they all fall into a hole. (or the fav swoops past him at that point!) Anyway, I want to have him onside here. A few niggles but he is a solid handicap chaser who has a touch more grinding class than some of these at his best for me,albeit arguably this is his level. The ground is soft, good to soft in places, so it should be ok, hopefully not too quick. Hopefully he can put that poor run behind him the last day.
Fill The Power... well he is more of a punt but Smith's have been going ok, he makes a quick return which intrigued me, Cook is on, it's his 3rd run after a long break and he returns to arguably his favourite track, 1/4,3p over CD. I hope he doesn't get into a pace battle and can just sit. He ran OK the last day, up there for a time before others pulled away. That may have been too sharp and it was a better race than this for me. He can run in snatches but there might be something about this hill that inspires him. He may be tailed off/being ridden after 4 fences. Something in my gut just says he is worth half a point here. If he is there 2 from home, he will be there come the line I think.
Pace... on paper there is so much and we shall see how fast they really go. Scotswell/Basford/Carli and the two selections can all get on with it. Hopefully those two let the other three 'kill' each other at the front end.
The most likely winners are the fav and BallyBen and maybe I am foolish for taking them on- but with that attitude I wouldn't have backed No Duffer on Sat. 7/4 is short for West of The Edge given he does have to prove his class..0/4,0p C3, and that was a weak race he hacked up in the last day. He will also come from further back here which depending on how testing it is will be hard work. Now he could just have improved beyond recognition and hack up again but at 7/4 I am happy to take him on and find out. BallyBen- well I don't know what he beat here when he won in the sense that all those that chased him home (inc Harry The Viking, Basford Ben, Morney Wing) needed the run I think and all kind of stopped/plugged on. He was fit and that is what won it I think. He has been consistent though and a repeat of his last two will put him there. But he does need to improve again from this mark, and as such that makes 3s ok, without being overly generous.
So, those two semi pokes will do. The prices allow a nibble. If Saroque can run like he did in the Welsh National until 5 from home or so that should put him well within the range of taking this. It could be that he isn't himself at the moment.
Should be a cracker to watch. GL with whatever you fancy. (i may not have mentioned the winner, I think I have, but it is a Saturday evening and I can't be bothered to write any more- rest assured I have looked at them all!)
***
***
JUMPS ANGLES
(remember you can find the research for all of these in various posts in the Free Reports & Systems Tab..I do need to update the master post and will do so next week)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio - LIVE TEST
Chase
1.35 Carl - Danimix
December Trainers
Venetia W - 1.35 Carl - Saroque
Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide)
1.50 South - Goodnightsweetheart
V Williams Chase November (tracking into Dec)
2.40 Carl- Fionn Mac Cul
*** |
