Good Morning Friend
Well, bar enjoying The King George and the demolition job by Thistlecrack, my Boxing Day punting was pretty dire- well, very dire.
I forget the last time I emailed you some decent pointers on a 'big race day/Saturday' - must be the 'curse of the email'. (or I just need to up my game which is probably more likely)
What follows are my thoughts on the Welsh Grand National, the stats I used, the selections I homed in on. You can read that below or in today's post HERE>>>
TIPS
2.40 Chepstow
CAROLE'S DESTRIER - 2 point win - 8/1 (general)
MILANSBAR - 1 point EW - 25/1 (PP, 5 places) 20/1 (general, 5 places about,may be 25s general in morning,may not)
OneNightInViena - 1/2 point win - 10/1 (PP/Coral/BF) 9/1 (coral)
Firebird Flyer - 1/2 point win - 16/1 (general)
A 5 point, go hard or go home, race for me here. Maybe part inspired by the nice bottle of Malbec that is sat on my desk and that is slowly disappearing. Maybe if one of these goes in it we can say it is the missing ingredient that has been lacking! :)
In all seriousness I have simply trusted the stats/trends and if the 19 year stats get broken here then so be it, another big race where I was not finding the winner.
So, why these 4 ... well, the first three, who tick every box...
- Top 6 LTO (0/41,4p were 7th or worse but completed, 0/42,2p fell or PU)
- 9 or younger (1/80 10+, Mountainous last year,lightly raced,prev winner. None of older brigade jump out at me this year)
- 11-6 or less on back (0/38,7p 11-7 or more)
- Ran 16-60 days ago (0/57,3p outside this)
- 0-3 handicap chase wins (0/48,6p outside this) (Firebird falls down on this one)
A strict interpretation of those stats leaves three...
Carole's Destrier / Milansbar / OneNightInViena...
Carole's Destrier...ran a cracker LTO in what looked a clear prep LTO for this thorough stayer who stays every yard of this trip at Sandown and should handle it well here. It was a very good run the last day, esp coming from further back. I assume NF has commitments at Kempton and am a tad surprised he isn't on him here- I wasn't sure if that was a sign or not but in terms of long distance chases/cool head under pressure, the trainer has gone for a pretty good replacement. There isn't much not to like about this one given the stats and his actual profile. Conditions look idea and we 'should' get a run for our money from him. I could have gone safety first, 1 pt EW, but i thought sod it, let's be bold.
Milansbar- more speculative but he stays well and 3 out at Uttoxeter back end last year he was leading before tiring from there on in, that was over 33.5f and this trip may just suit more. He should be plodding on and there could be a lot more to come this year given he was only a novice last season. He races up in the van also - well his legs wont be quick enough to match Native River but hopefully he can hold a position in the front third. He should stay on through the line here and with 5 places, or 4 at worse, fingers crossed he hits the frame at worst. He could win. Again, given his price, and the stats, I couldn't leave him alone. He also ran at Chepstow LTO and that little micro angle for this race may be worth following in years to come (+76 points last 19 years from the 49 or so to have run at Chepstow LTO)
OneNightInViena- more speculative I think but he is on the shortlist and is unexposed. I think he is a bit too inexperienced but he is 10s and it would be sickening to watch him win with no money on, given he is on a stats shortlist of 3 and is double figures in places. May not stay. May hate the big field. May not jump well enough. All possibles/unknowns.
Firebird Flyer...well he falls down on the hncp chase wins stat but in the end I thought- he stays, he likes the CD having come 2nd in this last year, and he had a decent enough pre LTO/comes here in form. Plenty in here don't seem to be in great form and have that and/or fitness questions/age questions also. Given he is 16s I thought he was worth 1/2 a point.
So, those 4 will do. I would bite your hand off for a Carole's win and a Milansbar plodding on 4th. That is possible. Obviously Milansbar winning would be a great end to the year, but that former scenario is more likely.
Of course it may all be irrelevant. Native River may prove to be a 'if there was no Thistlecrack/or the gold cup was a muddy slog fest' gold cup horse, and if so he 'could' be the weight carrying stats breaker in this race. But, he had a hard race LTO, he has a big weight historically and he is 3/1,11/4. He has to be taken on. He may well grind to victory here and he would get my applause as that would be some achievement. He will pop away on the front end and it will just be a case of when they turn for home whether the weight takes its toll. If if doesn't hopefully Milansbar places for a small profit on the race! (he is nailed on for 6th, we all know that! :) )
Right, that will do. Clearly something else may win. You have seen the stats. That is what I have followed. So, this year, I wasn't going to find them. As it happens, not much else jumps out at me even if I did ignore all the stats. I suppose Vicente would be the one other one, given his Ayr win. But he wasn't running that well, and was going backwards when falling LTO. I would have preferred a staying on run from the back in that race to have more confidence here.
*** Good luck with any fancies, and even more so if you follow me in! :)
All the best Josh
p.s I will lay off the emails for a few days given I have been bombarding you quite a bit. I suspect I will be back over the weekend at some point. As always any content will be delivered via the blog HERE>>>
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