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The Chase Is On: Weight Doesn’t Matter! (Diary Post)
Hello there.
This will be a meandering post of sorts. In it I highlight a daily column that is part of my daily reading routine and is one of the few racing related emails I always open. There are also some links to some great free resources that could help your betting/profit levels.
The main chunk of this post however will be dedicated to ‘going back to basics’ on the jumps front. Well mainly I am going to ‘plagiarise’ from a book called ‘The Inside Track – The Professional Approach’ – written by Alan Potts. This was published in 1998 and I have read through it before. I thought I would dust it off again as I try to retrain the brain to 3m+ handicap chases. (it needs it)
So, I will highlight some of the points that he made which stood out to me. I am sure you can still get this book somewhere and I think it is worth the read. There are chapters on all three codes, spread betting, ‘punters and other people’ and ‘odds and evens’. It is a fascinating read and I have only scratched the surface.
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(comments etc welcome)
Or I have repeated the rest of it below...
Where to start...
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Weight Doesn’t Matter
I will touch on this when looking at the book above but this isn’t an analytical post as such. However, the Final Furlong Podcast gang, which you can access through the ATR website, were asking for questions to discuss on this week’s episode. I tweeted them with ‘handicap chases...actual weight carried is irrelevant. Discuss’
The presenter got back in touch and said they would do just that. He also said an elite jockey, at a Festival preview evening last season, made that very same point.
So, I won’t go into detail about that topic now (I am not sure I will add any value to what Alan says below or what the podcast team may touch on) but it will be interesting to hear all of their thoughts on the matter. It is clearly a complex topic.
Alan has a few thoughts of his own also..
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Daily Punt Blog
The Daily Punt blog, run by the good folk who I write my monthly magazine for (same chaps behind The Betting School/Insiders Club etc), is now a daily must read for me. Or, it is when David Massey is writing his column, which is most days.
‘Cutney Dave’, as he is more affectionately known apparently (i don't know why), is one half of the Racing Consultants and knows his onions. He also has a rather entertaining and informative way of writing. I enjoy the read and know many of you will also. This isn’t a plug for any sort of paid service etc, (it isn’t an affiliate link) simply a recommendation for you to check out a free column that you may enjoy reading. I do.
You can flick through today’s post, and find older posts, HERE>>> (do read what follows before you head there though)
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The Chasing Game
Let’s get into the main reason for me scribbling today. I am just going to highlight some points made by Alan Potts in relation to handicap chasing. There is no analysis here as such, more just food for thought. These are Alan’s views and I should print of these points and keep them above my computer I think. I hope you find the following notes of some use...
The only thing likely to happen at the start that might affect the way the race is run, is the fact that the inside positions on the rail are traditionally taken by the senior jockeys. If you back a horse ridden by an amateur, or a conditional, expect to be on the outside. It won’t often matter, but can do at a sharp track.
Shape of the race…at the front is the best place to be in any chase, providing a clear view of the fences and a guarantee that the horse can’t be brought down or hampered by other’s mistakes. The shape I look for is a chase with a single front runner. I don’t believe there are any other patterns that warrant consideration when looking for a bet
A quick touch on Novice Chases…those chasers who go on to reach the top level, almost always win one of their first two chase races
Handicap Chases… the general principles can be reduced to four statements
Weight Doesn’t Matter
Young Chasers are the best bets (noted!!, again)
Suited to track and trip
Good jumpers in form
Weight…Takes no account of the actual weight a horse is carrying in a handicap chase. (personally there is the odd exception for me- a Welsh National run on Heavy for example where clear weight trends. Also clearly some smaller horses simply cant carry a big weight) I (that’s Alan) takes the view that the issues of jumping, fitness, suitability to track and distance are far more significant in a handicap chase, than a difference of a few pounds on a horse’s back. Takes view that weight is most important when a horse is trying to change speed at deciding stage of the race. Important on the flat, but in Chases they tend to go a steady pace the whole way round with only slight changes of speed at any point.
In the great majority of races run at uniform pace the winner (dictated by the need to jump fences safely) will have been leading or sitting close to the pace throughout the race. It is quite unusual for a horse that is deliberately held up more than 10L behind the pace to win a handicap chase, although it does occur in longer distance chases.
The weight carried may not matter, but the BHA mark certainly does. The rating decides in which races the chaser can run in, and more importantly, at which course.
As a successful chaser climbs ratings he reaches a level at which he no longer qualifies for races on the lesser tracks. Better courses > better opposition > stiffer fences.
So, it’s the jump in class I watch out for, not the weight carried.
Age…
Of all the types of racing in this country the one that takes the greatest toll of the horses is steeplechasing.
The simple fact is that younger chasers win more often than older ones. They have more natural speed and if they can jump well, will inevitably outpace older horses. The shorter the race, the more certain this equation is to the rule. Exceptions are high class horses or those who have had one or more seasons off the track.
Loss of speed for older horses the problem…can only be compensated by improving jumping technique or to step up in trip so speed less of an issue.
So
Two Miles: 6 + 7 year olds
Two and a half miles: 7 + 8 year olds
Three miles: 7 +8 year olds
Three and half miles plus: 8 + 9 year olds
I add one year to those categories for the period Jan –April after the equine birthday.
Always exceptions – considering older horses if shown winning form that season, for example.
Be wary of French Breds – generally seem more mature than local rivals. Often can handle 3m+ age 5/6, but also seem to decline sooner also.
Had noticed that horses doing well at the top level had often started chasing careers very young, aged 5. Gives useful balance of jumping experience and speed by the time they reach maturity aged 7 + 8.
Many top chasers won’t have raced in handicap hurdles, and will have won one of first two chase starts. Or indeed won’t have had a prolonged period over hurdles at all.
Track and trip…
Horses, like humans, can have lead legs and this can dictate whether they prefer going left handed or right handed. Where a horse is trained may dictate whether they actually only ever race one way or the other in early part of career, so may not be there is actually a preference. A horse may just be a rotten jumper.
The nature of the track…simply splits tracks into flat or undulating. Can depend if the jumps are on a flat part of track. He would count Sandown as a flat track.
With few exceptions, the top grade tracks are stiff, the gaff tracks are sharp. Thus an apparent preference for sharp tracks is inevitable for a chaser who wins a few races around the gaffs, and vice versa.
Always prepared to give a chaser a chance when stepping up in trip, until it proves to be a mistake. As long as the horse adapts to the slower pace and doesn’t ruin his chance by pulling to hard, then good jumping can compensate for any lack of stamina in the pedigree.
Races over 3 and a half miles or further…. Find a chaser who is genuinely suited by that sort of trip. These long distance races often fall to a previous winner of a similar contest in the same season. (using minimum of energy in jumping can take you far)
Good jumpers in form…
Simple ideas can be the best…Alan writes up a quick analysis of 27 Class A/B chases run at the major tracks (Ascot/Cheltenham/Haydock/Kempton/Newbury/Sandown/Wetherby)… a last time out winner won 16 of the 27 races (this area is ripe for a bit of digging in my HRB account)
It is not a good idea to make excuses for a poor run LTO, with only two winners having failed to complete on their last start in that mini sample above. Failure isn’t often followed by success. The stats are for top class chases- pattern may not apply as much as you drop down the classes.
The end.
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Well, some food for thought there. I don’t think I will get away with repeating the whole book :) In truth that is a small set of notes from one section on chases. It is a very good book for me and is still relevant. I should probably read the Flat chapters in time for next season!! But, there are definitely some good reminders in that list above for me.
Some of it is simple but simple can be best and it is good to keep reminding ourselves of such things.
If you google Alan Potts 'books' or 'horses' (or both) on Google, there is plenty to flick through. Having just done that there may be some other books I should buy!
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FREE STUFF
I will be in selling mode again in the latter half of this week to promote my new stats pack. (Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17)
However, I am quite aware most people don’t wish to pay for things etc, so I thought I would highlight a couple of great freebies that you may or may not be aware of…
FREE TIPS
The guys behind the Betting- School/Betting Insiders Club/Daily Punt send out a daily email 6 days a week with a free tip inside from those on their roster. These include Dr Nick Hardman, The Racing Consultants, Carl Nicholson and others.
No catches. There are rarely write ups for the free tips, they are simply that. And occasionally they do try and sell stuff. Shock horror. Of course you can unsubscribe at any time but it is good stuff, from some of the best tipsters around.
But, that’s up to you. These tips will find you winners and you can sign up HERE>>>
GEEGEEZ GOLD
I bang on about this brilliant set of tools often enough- albeit I haven’t for a few weeks now.
Anyway, as a free registered user you gain free access to different parts of the package on different days of the week. It really is a no brainer for me and I think everyone should be a free registered user!
You can register for free HERE>>> and start exploring aspects of Geegeez Gold for Free.
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Full disclosure...both of those links above are affiliate links. That means if you do ever join anything that you have to pay for, I will make some commission. The free stuff is quality, I know that much. It will make your experience of this great game more enjoyable I think.
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Right, I think that is it for this post. I hope you find something of interest in that little lot.
As always, any questions, comments etc do post away,
Josh
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