Hello Friend

As I haven't sent you anything for a few days below you can find my latest Members' post... 'Tracker Tuesday' which joins 'Micro Monday' and 'Trends Thursday' (look ahead to a big Saturday handicap or two) as three weekly blog posts in addition to my usual daily content. 

*

Two chase eye-catchers this week who should have better days ahead, as well as a couple of horses from Ireland who proved themselves to be soft ground stayers/sloggers, which is always worth noting… there’s also a stat for Nick Williams and a ‘hot’ trainer to track in the coming days…

First up is a couple of horses from the 3rd October, who ran in the 4.10 Warwick…


Electron Bleu (5YO/Tim Vaughan)

Hopefully this is one for the ‘short’ term who could be winning on his next 1-3 starts, when soft/heavy. Formerly trained in France he was having his 3rd run in the UK here for his new trainer. It was his first run in 163 days and the market suggested he would need it – and he ran as such. It's a positive they've taken their time with him. 

He won in France as a 4YO in Heavy ground over 17f and also has a staying on 3rd to his name, over 23f, also in heavy. To my eyes he does hit the ground hard and it could be he comes into his own when faced with more testing conditions – including a more galloping track.

He jumped off last here, belted the first and then refused to settle. However, he made an eye-catching move turning for home and was on the heels of the leaders approaching two out. He started to tire, made a scrappy error and then belted the last, knocking the stuffing out of him. He coasted home in his own time after that but the run was much better than it appears in the form-book.

I would expect to see better when getting softer ground (which may also help his jumping) and he’s one to note. Vaughan should get handicap chase wins with him this season. 

This was a decent enough race with the right two horses on the day finishing 1st and 2nd, the winner also open to progress and a solid yardstick. To the eye it was also run at a solid gallop. 



Dentley De Mee (6YO/Nick Williams)

This unexposed handicap chaser ‘could’ turn out to be the best of these in time, ratings wise. He had some decent form to his name last season, inc an 8L defeat to Kildisart at Cheltenham. He was 4th that day and the three in front were all 141+ animals going into it. 

At times last season he ran as if he was a stayer, inc in the race above, and would relish 3m+, and possibly much softer ground than he's encountered so far over fences, inc at Warwick. He was well fancied on his first start of the season and ran ‘ok’. His jumping could be sharper but he was outpaced down the back before plodding on.

He is now 0/8,2p over fences and he does wear cheekpieces. So, there are a few questions mounting but 3m+ and soft+ could be the making of him – and he could come into his own from January onwards...

I say that having had a quick look at Nick William's record with 6YOs in handicap|chases, running in Jan/Feb/March…

In the last two years he’s 6/13, 9p, +18 BFSP

The horse runs in the same colours as Coo Star Sivola (Ultima winner) and it will be interesting to see if he can progress.

He should have handicap chase wins in him this season – they usually come alive as 6YOs for this trainer, and later in the season, but time will tell…


*

Elsewhere… more a brief note for those of you who like playing in muddy staying handicap chases… (I’m one!)

The 5pm from Gowran on the 5th October could be a race worth noting. The rain had set in and by the time they set off for this 25f contest it looked very soft, and took some getting. You really need to stay at Gowran in those conditions, with a stiff enough climb to the line.

The winner, Wonderoftheworld (7YO/K Henry Clarke) was well positioned but he travelled and jumped well. On only the 7th chase of his life, and his first handicap, he could be a staying handicapper worth following. 

He was arguably lucky here as Graineyhill (8YO/Gordon Elliot) was upsides when taking a heavy fall at the last. I suspect they’d have been a ding dong battle to the line but in any case I’d underestimated this one going into the race. It was a race I left in the end but he stepped forward here, leaving behind some ‘Perth’ form – (which I’d underestimated) – this run suggests that he wants these conditions – 25f+, soft+ , tapping into his stamina. In hindsight he'd found Perth's 3m sharp enough. He should find a race or two, provided the fall doesn’t knock him mentally.


*

Finally...

If you want a trainer to track… I’d keep an eye on Chris Gordon’s runners in the next couple of weeks – his have been running very well.

In fact he’s had 15 runners in October so far… 4 winners / 4 seconds / 4 thirds… solid.


*

That’s all for this week’s Members’ ‘Tracker Tuesday’ post.

Josh