Hello Friend
A trip to Ripon today for their big race, with some content from the members' post... my two tips + the trends/stats below... (you can read the following post on the blog HERE>>>)
Members' Festival/Big Race Tips
(+179.5 points for 2018)
3.15 Ripon
Terentum Star - 1 point win - 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (general)
Kimberella - 1 point win - 11/1 (gen)
Terentum Star... I used the stats as some sort of guide here and Kevin Ryan deserves a win in this race given the placed horses he's had. This one ticks every box below bar having run above listed level in his career but that's one of those stats you have to be flexible about. He's a CD winner, has a high level of big field C2 handicap form to his name, is well drawn, runs on the pace/leads, and looks like he's been laid out for this. I was initially concerned by the break but some of his best efforts have come fresh and surely this has been the plan. I assessed this race on the basis that it would be quick enough - it's good/good to firm in places and will only be drying out. They have watered 2mm which tells you everything I think. I've assumed that those who are best with cut in the going, and there are plenty, will struggle. IF this one is a1, i expect a big run and would be surprised if he was out of the places. Of the 8 on the initial stats 'shortlist', he was the one I liked most.
Kimberella - this one would be a trends buster for sure but he's a listed horse at his best and may have too much class for these. He's sure to run his race, is a CD winner, comes here in fine form, and is well handicapped with the 7lb off. Clearly the inexperienced jockey is a concern but Fahey knows a talent when he sees one, he's ridden winners, and we've seen what Sebastian Woods has done on a Fahey sprint handicapper in a big race. He should track the pace nearside and I thought would run a big race. His last turf handicap run was in the Scottish Sprint handicap at Musselburgh last July where he came a decent 3rd, effectively off 102. He's off '98' here and 6f is more his trip. He seemed to tick plenty of boxes for me and also showed up well on my various ratings sets. (HRB/Inform/GG speed) I thought he was worth a stab at double figures and would be mildly surprised were he not to place at worst.
Of the rest...well I only wanted two on side in this and decided against Golden Apollo who was my original choice over Terentum Star, so we shall see how that goes. The latter beat him comfortably in one of those York sprints. At a single figure price in a big field I was a tad concerned about the headgear on for the first time but more so the going...i'm not sure he has the pace to lay up when the ground is good/firm and as such may have plenty to do late into this race. I could be wrong. I also didn't like the fact he's gone up 5lb for not winning LTO, albeit a decent run. Were this ground on the softer side I may have gone for him but he's won on the going. I suspect he will run a big race and have taken some cover, for change. As I have with Brian The Snail...I just wanted to see some big field C2 handicapping form and he arrives here on the back of two poor efforts, albeit maybe he doesn't like Ascot and he probably doesn't stay 7f. Hamilton gets on well with him but he could just be a C3 animal. There is something niggling at me at 33s though! Along with Reputation and Dark Power they are the big priced clangers, given their place on the stats list below. I decided the former may not be good enough and the latter may want a softer surface.
Clearly it's a competitive race and I may not have mentioned the winner. That's how these goes but with any luck I get a run for my money.
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The research/ stats
Ripon
Great St Wilfred Stakes
10/184, 39 p
10/10 drawn 4 to 17
1-3: 0/29, 5p
18+ : 0/29,4p
10/10 carried 9-3 or less
9-4 or above: 0/44, 8p
10/10 ran over 6f LTO
5f: 0/20,1p
7f+ : 0/18,4p
9/10 had yet to run above Listed level
Had run Group 3+ : 1/87,13p
Group 3: 0/20,1p
Group 2: 0/30,4p
Group 1: 1/37, 8p
8/10 carried 8-12-9-2 (exc claims) (8/59,18p, +101)
8/10 finished top 7 LTO (8/95,26p, +24)
7/10 had 3 or fewer runs this season
7/38, 12p, +88
7/10 had run at the track before
Had not: 3/71,14p
1+ : 7/113,25p
Other
28/1 or bigger SP: 0/34, 4p
Top 4 in weights: 0/44, 9p
Bottom/joint bottom weights: 0/25,4p
Trainers:
D O’Meara: 3/12,4p
R Fahey: 2/27,5p
1 x win: T Easterby/R Whitaker/B Smart/H candy
K Ryan: 0/18,6p
TD Barron: 0/11,0p
Shortlist
Some caution but those drawn 4-17, 9-3 or less on back, did not run over 5f LTO...leaves 8...
Growl / Golden Apollo / Flying Pursuit / Terentum Star / Al Qahwa / Dark Power / Brian The Snail / Reputation
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Best of luck with any bets, Josh
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