Hello Friend
Below is my 'daily tip/ selection from today's Members' Post. These daily tips focus on 3m+ handicap chases which are my favourite race type to get stuck into. Before late February i'd been trying to become a jack of all trades on the tipping front, and it didn't go too well. So I decided to go back to basics and just focus on what I do best, or have done historically, given this blog started out with me previewing staying handicap chases (and the big marathon chases still live in the free posts). Since I made that decision on the 21st of Feb my 'daily tips' have pulled in +32 points or so, which is solid enough and gives me something to build on. Anyway, there was only one 3m+ handicap chases, C4+, to target today and I thought the selection was worth a go at the price. There's still some 7s around in places...
First up...
VIDEO PREVIEW...
If the FLAT is more your thing, Matt B over at Geegeez has recorded another excellent video preview of Goodwood and Chester which you can watch HERE>>> He last did this for The Victoria Cup and landed on the winner. Given the two tracks he's looked at today, there's plenty of focus on PACE and DRAW, which you may find useful.
To my tip...
Members Daily Tips
3.15 Cartmel - Sackett - 1 point win - 8/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/Coral) 15/2 (others)
as of 08.53, write up...
Sackett - he's the most interesting horse in this by far given his unexposed profile over fences- there should be more to come one day. He's a former point winner, his chase 2nds in Feb/March at Hunt/Fake are very solid form, esp 'on the figures' - those RPRs are the best in here of any of these on last 6 runs, bar Hammond's LTO but more on him in a moment. In both of those chases the front two were miles clear and he was beaten by the right horses on the day. He didn't have the pace of Air Du Roc at Hunt and was just out-stayed by Fifty Shades at Fake (albeit a last fence blunder didn't help), who two starts later would bolt up at Warwick in a marathon chase (albeit a poor one). Still, in this line up, that form is as good as anything else on offer, and the RPRs support that view. He was still galloping at Fake, rather than going backwards. He does have a stamina question but has stayed 3m well enough over hurdles and it could be a reason for improvement as he could just keep galloping on the long run in here. If you handle Fakenham (LH,tight, 7f circuit), you handle Cartmel, so no excuses on that front.
Obviously the elephant in the room is the PU LTO. A PU LTO for a chaser is never a positive in my book and you have to make a case, odds allowing, for what happened. I've watched it back and he just never looked happy. I'm putting it in the 'off day' camp and the fact he returns just 21 days later would indicate it wasn't injury related. He was just never travelling. That could have been due to the fact he was running 10 days after a hard enough hurdle race at Southwell- where he was under the pump on the turn for home and kept galloping before tiring. He does look a chaser and may have always been going a stride too fast around there. There's also a chance that he doesn't like to have a wall of horses in front of him. They held him up there and he may have simply been unhappy. He may want space, light and to feel like he's getting competitive. I fully expect Bryony Frost to attempt to make all here and play catch me if you can. It could well be that he's just gone out of form, out of sorts, and he'll be struggling early again. But, given all of the above, the potential change in tactics back to what he knows best, and the yard form, I was happy to roll the dice at 8s. Of course in part that's due to my assessment of the opposition...
Just For James... well he's 10 but clearly a danger if repeating his win LTO, or building on it. It's the 'Fifty Shades' form... however, in the context of his price, I do not like the 88 days off at all. I can only assume that he's had a problem/setback/minor injury, and as such, at his age, i'd want to see him run again before supporting him in similar contests. He may be a1 here, and obviously would go close if he is. His RPR last time was 125, matching Sackett's at Fakenham. Nothing in here has posted a figure that high on recent runs. He was 11/4 last night, and has now drifted out to 5s. Hopefully that tells it's own story, given his profile, but we shall see. Clearly not a shock winner but I want to take him on.
If one of the two 12 year olds beats me, so be it. I'll take them on every day of the week. Morning Royalty would have a chance on old form and is chucked in on that. But his mark has fallen because he's done nothing of note for over a year now, since April 18. He's also 0/8,0p with breaks of 60+ days, and these older horses can take plenty to get them fit at home. The trainer can ready them though and he is being supported but I didn't think he was overpriced. If back to anything like his best I could see him bolting up, but far too many questions for me. He does have to prove his stamina over fences also. Dartford Warbler appears to have lost his form and I can leave him here.
I can leave Pretty Miss Mahler at her price. The race she did win at Ayr was atrocious and her recent runs are only 'ok'. All conditions are fine though but is another where I wasn't tempted to wade in at the odds. She could go close but obviously has a bit to find if some of these run up to their marks etc and she's not unexposed.
That leaves Incholm who is the one to beat - simply because he's in superb form, generally jumps well, stays, has some course form, and will run his race- it's not impossible he's the only one to do so. However he is now 6lb higher than his 2nd LTO and on a career high mark by some way. It could be he's somehow still progressing on the 28th chase start of his life, but at 2/1 I'm happy to take him on. He is the one to beat, but his recent chase form isn't anything to shout about.
At the prices, I really do think this is about whether the selection can repeat/build on his Huntingdon and Fakenham chase runs. If he does I think his price is rather generous and allows a play despite the obvious questions. We shall see!
Best of luck,
Josh
|
